I’m one of those foreign investors that they seem to dislike, you could imagine them doing things that wouldn’t align with my interests.
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Yep, and the response to “Hey that’s stealing” would be “Hey you stole from us for decades”.
Ok, so the media and public opinion keep saying Trump is crazy and panicking about the stock market, and honestly, I’m getting a bit bored of it.
I’ve been reading here! There’s very likely some kind of plan behind all of this (stupid or not—no judgment hehe), and figuring it out might actually work to our advantage (yes yes, I know, market timing is bad…tsch!).
The points about (1) reducing government spending, (2) increasing local manufacturing, and (3) strengthening defense capabilities and by extension, national autonomy are actually quite clear to me.
I’m also thinking that Trump is a capitalist so, naturally, he wants the private sector and the stock market to go up. With US bond yields decreasing, there’s a chance that Jerome Powell will drastically cut interest rates at the next revision to stay ahead of inflation, that makes sense to you?
If we get near-zero interest rates again (assuming all else equal), plus some moderated negotiated tariffs and renewed spending to promote domestic manufacturing… wouldn’t a bull run be plausible?
(Let’s all put our net worth into TQQQ! …just kidding! 
)
If I were to base actual investing decisions on it, I would really not focus on the Trump/Musk talking points and dig into their actual actions.
RE: (1) reducing government spending. DOGE hasn’t tackled any department where the real spending is yet. Instead, the very first people to be fired were the Inspector Generals of (most of) each department, who are the people in charge of tracking and dealing with fraud and abuse inside of the department they are attached to, in an independent manner. They’re the people you want to ask about where the fraud is, not the ones you want to fire after less than 10 days in office.
Most agencies gutted by DOGE had oversight over one of Elon’s companies and he had stuff to settle with them.
On top of that, and even if the effort is genuine, firing the probationary employees, which also affects the people recently promoted, means you keep the people the most encroached in their job and get rid of the best of them (newly promoted) and the ones who have been hired for a task that has its need now rather than 10 years ago.
RE (2): increasing local manufacturing: I have nothing to say against that, they seem to be genuine at that though they are very inefficient at it: picking a fight with the whole world (except Russia, Belarus and North Korea) at the same time is a sure way to ally them against you.
RE (3): strengthening defense capabilities: I haven’t seen articles about the US themselves strenghtening their own defense capabilities. Have I missed something? What I’ve seen is them incentivizing other countries to do so, the other countries feeling threatenend (sometimes of an invasion by the US themselves, when it comes to Canada and Denmark) and them increasing their own defense capabilities at the same time as they are being alienated and learn that they have to plan with the US not being a reliable ally anymore.
RE: the FED cutting interest rates. That’s what I would do in such a context because inflation would be driven by the offer side of things and the need would be to build the US own producing capabilities, so stimulating the US economy should have less of an inflationary effect and more of a “catching up with demand” effect, though I’m not a central banker and have been very wrong when it comes to anticipating their decisions before.
RE: moving into a bull run: I think the fundamental world order is changing right now as other countries have come to rely a lot on the US, and trust them blindly (reserve currency, risk free bonds, US exceptionalism when it comes to the stock market) and are now factoring in that they can’t do so because even if the current adversarial policies get reversed, things can switch every 4 years in the blink of an election and the new administration may not give any credence to existing treaties and not face significant backlash for it. What they are demonstrating is that they are not reliable and there is (way) less legal framework stability to expect for them, which is usually not good for business. I’m way less positive than you are about the future but, then again, I’ve been so for years. Each of us should do according to our own plans.
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That’s wishful thinking, they haven’t even reached their 2% target (unlike EU) and that’s before the inflation bump due to tariffs.
Things might be different once Powell is out next year, but people are starting to be worried about that too (in particular whether the US will keep providing swap lines to the main partner central banks which is critical to avoid financial meltdown in time of market stress).
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Bounce little kitty?
Do people believe Trump will listen to Musk and Ackman? 
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If you are looking for a plan, this is the one & this source to try to understand the thinking amongst top folks in White House
I don’t know if Trump himself believes in this plan but I would let you figure it out. However this might give you insights into what could be the possible logic behind all this chaos.
For me -: I don’t care what the plan is. I care what the actions are. And it’s clear US has too much leverage over rest of the world (security, digital & trade) and all I hope for is that countries like EU, Japan, Canada , Switzerland etc derisk their dependence on US over next 10 years. This time they would get bullied and maybe would not be able to do much or stand up like China. But they should learn a lesson. China prepared for this for last 5 years and is showing the world how superpower works & behaves.
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Dead cat bounce or rebound?
Dead parrot.
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Yes it would and it will be. I don’t care too much about the reasons, not for the bear market not for the bull run after. I just trade it.
This is my 10th bear market, I invest in stocks since the early 80s. It is the 4th time I use my “crash recovery strategy”. This is kind of the bad bad market timing, so it is discussed in the market timing thread.
BTW: on every bear market everybody said “this time it is different”. Guess what: it never was!
3 min read is for the title, right? The persons that read that site probably need that or more.
edit: the cat seems to be less elastic than expected..
So the thing about loosing trust on the US may be relative. People are panicking now because of Trump umpredictabillity and the obvious market outlooks but I would say that people also forget very quickly, specially when things are going well. If at some point there is a bull run again people will start getting back into the US stock market without hesitation… Not everyone of course but people goes where the opportunities are I guess, whether that is china, US or wathever country.
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Germany is planning to take their gold back to German soil.
But at the same time China is planning to ban import of American movies, so maybe this whole thing will get to a suddenly stop. Don’t f. with the mouse, you know 
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I deposited cash into my 3a yesterday. It will take a day or 2 before it is invested, so expect a big bounce in the stock markets today! 
You’re welcome.
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It’s working!
I’m up two cars* today, thanks @PhilMongoose!
Edit: 1 1/2 cars now only. Can you please check if that cash deposit went through properly?
* After being down about 10 cars since last Wednesday.
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OK, maybe 3 Dacias today. But since December down 5 Ferraris.
Not a car guy anyhow…
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Unless anything unexpected happens, the big tarrifs will go live tomorrow. That will stop the bull trap.
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Market participants may be panicking but it doesn’t feel to me world leaders are. Their answers seem to make strategical sense to me and it feels to me like they don’t feel like they have much choice but decoupling from the USA.
Trust is a hard thing to conquer once it’s been lost and future investors may be looking at different numbers when looking at the expected future profits of US companies years away from now.
That being said, confirmaton bia can be very deceptive and I’ve been looking for signs of other countries stepping up so I am biased and may very well be wrong.
Yes, makes sense too. I actually agree with the argument that expected future US profits will be low but I am trying to challenge myself to see arguments for the opposite as well.
For sure there are two distinguishible things, people trusts towards US and leader trust toward the US. Markets are being lead by people (pro and no-pro investors)
Leaders know -or should know- the rules of the game, regular people (including investors) don’t. Regular people is highly influenced by media & mainstrem opinion so there is a gap between what happens and how it is perceived and this have big consequences in the stock market. In turn, for leaders is a matter os geopolitical strategy to get eventually the decoupling from the US but we are far from there in my opinion.
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