How long will the bulk of these reciprocal tariffs last?
- A few days, the chaos will be too much
- A few weeks
- A few months
- A year or more
0
voters
1 Like
SSAC is now 12% down versus ATH. I use it as proxy because it is accumulating ETF and is good approximation of total returns.
2 Likes
I think the question is how long world need to deal with irrational country and when would ex-US strike a trade deal and ignore US.
You donât need to negotiate with irrational people.
1 Like
There is no exemption. It would be announced later
Yeah Iâm going to wait 'till the afternoon and then look to sell ZGLD and buy VWRL.
3 Likes
The perfect rebalancer award goes to @Mirager
4 Likes
I donât think that things will pass that fast. If you ask me, Trump is re-shaping the US towards an independent, segregated Block. We are back to a Cold War like Economy where there are different trade blocks that donât realy collaborate that much (other than probably with necessities like oil and drugs). The question is whether he is just 100% a mad man, or if he had any insight with regard to geopolitical changes, that make him shift towards geopolitical blocks. And the sad thing is that apparently, he was not interested in a âWesternâ or even a âNorth Americanâ block, but a US Block alone.
Think about it - Russia (at least on paper) doesnât realy trade much with the rest of the World and is therefore to a certain extent self supporting (as bad as it gets). The US tries to do the best it can to cut off all ties⊠now we only need China to close the Borders (lets say if/as they advance on Taiwan) and we already are in a world with 3 complete different innovation and trade blocks (US, China, Russia) and a big confused space in between those.
As sad as it is, and whatever bad it means for our immediate future - I think its time to disinvest from the US and prepare for the worst, including confiscation of assets held within a block, but from people with domicile/passport outside of such block.
The only good thing is - leaving politics and entertainment for the average Chinese - it may very well be that the Chinese government was smart enough to realize that their block required collaborations from the Rest of the World (if it wanted to prevail over US and Russia)⊠and that the best way of doing so was to collaborate with the rest of the world; pretend to be mad with Taiwan but donât proceed. To be honest, I wouldnât be surprised if we end up in some kind of strange world where China becomes the new US.
1 Like
We are talking here about trade barriers and not taxes.
VAT is not a trade barrier. Itâs a tax that everyone pays (locals or importers)
Tariff is a trade barrier because itâs only applied to specific set of companies while locals donât pay it.
I understand you might not like VAT, Capital gains tax , Sales tax, income tax or wealth tax. But they are not trade barriers of any sort and they are paid by consumers.
8 Likes
Formula is
Lets say US import from you X and you import from US Y.
Trade deficit D = X-Y
Assumed tariff that you are charging US (made up number) = D/X
Friendly fair play US tariff = approx 50% D
As an example.
Switzerland.
- X= 63.4 B
- Y = 25 B
- D = 39.4 B
- Assumed tariff that CH charges US = 62%
- Friendly fair play US Tariff = 31%
- Fun fact real tariff applied by CH on US imports based on real trade and real values is less than 2%
**As mentioned earlier VAT in CH or Sales tax in US states is not part of this because they are not applied to specific folks.
4 Likes
This is true . US can go alone. But this means things will cost more than what they do now. Otherwise US wouldnât have lost manufacturing base.
So if people are fine to buy American goods and willing to pay American prices, thatâs great. They just need to build all these facilities, find all the workers and capital to build these facilities. And yeah, also stop selling things to other nations (defence equipment, services etc)
Personally I donât think there is anything wrong is re-industrialised US. They just need to stop using wrong data to justify their actions.
They should say âwe donât want to trade with the world because we want to produce in USâ and thatâs it.
Itâs a bit bizarre that when you want others to invest in your country (because you yourself are high in debt) , you threaten them. What kind of investor likes to be threatened to invest .
2 Likes
Dunno, but I put my money where my mouth is and just did it 
Honestly itâs my first rebalance and feels good to sell part of something thatâs done well (ZGLD) to buy something thatâs gone down (VWRL). I feel itâs critical to have an ironclad plan and not stray from it, even if it means some (uncertain) opportunity costs (eg gold going to Mars the next 12 months).
1 Like
Swiss franc jumping 2.3% today. Oof. A double whammy incoming.
At least I get my yearly bonus next monthâŠ
E: Already at 2.5% up in just the 5 minutes since writing.
Outch.
1 Like
Yeah. I wish I got it this month instead of last month.
2 Likes
We just got an email last night that weâre not getting a bonus this year, so no bueno.
6 Likes
Thatâs very early into the year. Must have been already discussed without the tariffs and turmoil in place but as always, as long as you are accumulating, I take the discount any time.
If things move this way âthanksâ the decision of a single person/group, Iâd be worried that it can go worse. Black swan?
Winning the presidency in 3Âœ years should be easy for the democrats the way itâs going currently.
January 20 2029 will be Liberation Day 2: The De-Tariffing
The last time they had a message was with Obama. âIâm not Trumpâ (Biden) and âI am a woman of colorâ (Harris) is no message either. Maybe Obama and Thatcher should have had a word with Mrs Harris. They should be able to scrape a better plan together in 3.5 years.
1 Like
I had a plan to invest a big lampsum to VWRL this week. The plan was not âactiveâ - nothing to do with the US Tarifs etc.
VWRL is down ~5% today. Is it OK to just buy now or should I wait till US markets open? Or do it next week?
I am inexperienced to such big hourly/daily movements
When in doubt,
(Set some rules and)
Chunk it up.