Chronicles of 2025

Mad PowerPoint Skillz at play (ok I don’t have a lot urgent to do at work and on holiday next week so brain is switched off)

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like on a techno party… waiting for the drop! :mirror_ball:

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This is where my strategy comes into play.
I always sell high and buy low.

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or a mosh pit wall of death, waiting to close in…

Pessimist.

(Isn't that my role?)

Things aren’t dire yet.


Edit: Chewbacca there in the background, is he $MSFT …? Or $META? Maybe $GOOG?

The plateau is going to be 3-4 orders of magnitude higher in a decade than either the peak or the trough, so it doesn’t matter where we are today.

I’m kidding

Or am I?!

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Probably not, a plateau is not necessarily a bad thing as long as the holy dividends are rolling in.

My company, who doesn’t pursue anything to results, is gonna invest in AI because some marketer talked to them. Guys/gals, run for the exits.

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The lost decade 2000-2009 would like a word.

expecting 3-4 magnitudes in a decade is extremely overly optimistic.

A rational expectation is 5%/year real after inflation return. That is the long running average over hundreds of years by now.

Also current valuations would actually give higher chance to quite depressed returns over the next decade. Not that it would predict it for sure. Just that the past stats would give that expectation.

But it‘s really not a stretch to say there is a solid chance to have exactly zero (real) return over a decade. That has happened a lot of times already.

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It’s actually extremely pessimistic.

The S&P500 is currently just under 6’600.

So if we take 3-4 OOM that goes to: 6’600’000 to 66’000’000.

You don’t get that through growth. You get that through hyperinflation and currency debasement.

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Swatch trolls Trump was not on my bingo card.

WHAT IF…TARIFFS? features a square Bioceramic case and edge-to-edge biosourced glass that allows a side view of the watch’s dial. (..) The inversion of Arabic numerals 3 and 9 on the dial subtly references the number 39. Paired with the percentage symbol found on the battery cover, this inversion hints at the US tariffs imposed on Switzerland.

And the price of exactly CHF 139 :sweat_smile:

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I think the expectations and reality matter less. Market is moving on momentum and external conditions like FED rates etc.

Fundamentals start mattering when there is a big problem in real world-: recession, war, random geopolitical drama or all of this stuff

in other words -: I feel people will keep coming up with reasons why AI is just getting started because most of us don’t use AI for anything substantial yet. At least that’s what I think. The question is if the promises of the technology are anywhere close to where we currently are.

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US Japan deal is now signed. Some of the points covered in MOU will be interesting for EU / CH if similar deals are signed

If all deals are of similar nature then Europe will also have to comply with 600B investments they promised or face higher tariffs. There was lot of chatter earlier that such deals are not enforceable but I think US govt will not reduce tariffs until they have some mechanism agreed to force compliance.

source

the MOU explains that the United States will present approved investments to Japan for review, and Japan will provide funding within 45 days. Although Japan has the right not to fund an investment after consulting with the United States, in that case, Japan will forfeit its distributions, and the United States can impose higher tariffs as determined by the president. Again, like the EO, the MOU explicitly gives the U.S. leverage over Japan in the implementation of the framework agreement.

Fed, Fed! Not FED! Reddit’s AI has brainwashed me, isn’t that reason enough to believe in it?

But other than that it doesn’t matter (to me) what/where we are, if/when there’s a trend reversal with QQQ I plan to plug some of the profits of TQQQ in SQQQ for funzies.

Yeah no action for my side too. I am mentally prepared for 50% equities crash at any time.

Is this really AI on Reddit ? to me seems like RPA :slight_smile:

Yeah, not AI, but I am a simple biochemist so whatever does things on its own is AI to me :wink:

Jason Zweig in the WSJ:

“Out of 672 launches of new exchange-traded funds so far this year, according to FactSet, 28% are tied to a single stock and 25% are leveraged, amplifying the daily gains or losses of the underlying asset.”

(Source)

So degenerate on multiple levels …

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That is again more than new stocks. The bubble says blub…

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You mean competition? I don’t care if an index/stock/whatever has multiple ETFs (not leveraged) tracking them.

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Could still be a bubble in the ETF industry rather than market performance. On the other hand the market seems pretty competitive and it isn’t that much money to manage an ETF. I just predict some folks will have some involuntary realized capital gains though