All of you passive degens prudent Bogleheads have so far poured over $800 billion into ETFs this year …
“ETFs crack $800b in YTD flows, that’s a breathtaking $5b/day pace. I’m old enough to remember $1b/day. That puts them on pace to hit about $1.2T this year, a new record.”
4th PM in 2 years, I guess it was expected. French equity markets with little reaction, but they are mostly exposed to international markets. Bond markets on the other hand tell a different story. Spread of french compared to german bonds rose sharply last month, over five years even more (source).
This will be crazy when it reverses. Isn’t the reversal meant to take place in 2026-2027 as the boomers retire and outflows will start outpacing new contributions?
It will be very different when an unrelenting bid becomes an unrelenting ask.
If I could trust that I wouldn’t lose my job unless I made a major f-up, and that I’d find a job sending a letter in the classifieds adds within 1-2 days, and I’d get a livable pension in a livable age I wouldn’t invest a dime. Would be like my parents: make 100, spend 99. Not like their friends who made 100 and spent 120.
But since we don’t live in Old Economy Steve’s world…need to take the risk for the hope of a chance to have a decent life before 70.
Is this still a thing the do-your-own-research hype?
As in “hey I don’t get why I should invest in your shitcoin, I can’t get the value it holds” “bro, I have no time explaining it to you, that’s the new thing, do your own research”
I wonder what the implications for inflation would be. I see the dilemma facing the ECB. If inflation rises (which is a possibility, not a certainty, although I personally believe the likelihood of sustained inflation above 2%, or even 3%, is greater than 50%), then under its “whatever it takes” approach, the ECB would have limited room to raise rates. Doing so could worsen the situation in France and Italy, potentially even leading to defaults.
I have no idea whether the ECB would dare to buy French bonds to help keep the country solvent while simultaneously raising rates. Such a move would be politically charged and could effectively amount to a mutualisation of bad debt.
Following this line of thought, there is a significant risk of stagflation in the Eurozone.
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