Chronicles of 2025

Thanks for the clarification. My optician and psychiatrist will have to fight for my money over this as yours had completely eluded me.

@Mirager’s “/ns” confused me as I read it as potentially “not sarcasm”.

I think the arguing is about the proper way to chronicle things? I’d say you won this one.

You read it correctly! The report was bad and the overall situation looks bad but the market’s “reaction” was essentially daily noise.

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Goofy’s turn now to see his optician …

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All of you passive degens prudent Bogleheads have so far poured over $800 billion into ETFs this year … :clap:

“ETFs crack $800b in YTD flows, that’s a breathtaking $5b/day pace. I’m old enough to remember $1b/day. That puts them on pace to hit about $1.2T this year, a new record.”

(Source)

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Impressive to see the inflow in ETHA and JEPQ.

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The top is in?

Also, sorry about France, a country near and dear to my heart about to be dragged through the mud, market doesn’t seem to care?

4th PM in 2 years, I guess it was expected. French equity markets with little reaction, but they are mostly exposed to international markets. Bond markets on the other hand tell a different story. Spread of french compared to german bonds rose sharply last month, over five years even more (source).

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No new information, the news was when the vote was announced (everyone knew it wouldn’t pass, in practice asking for the vote was akin to resigning).

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France’s 10Y yield went up, now above Italy’s (for the first time since the Euro was launched).

Thankfully, Draghi’s “Whatever it takes” will serve as a backstop.

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“Just remember. No matter what happens today, 70 million working Americans will still be buying $NVDA every month, whether they realize it or not.”

                         — Tier1 Alpha

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If you look closely and do your own research, y’all know this time is really different.

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This will be crazy when it reverses. Isn’t the reversal meant to take place in 2026-2027 as the boomers retire and outflows will start outpacing new contributions?

It will be very different when an unrelenting bid becomes an unrelenting ask.

Nah, no outflows, boomers will live on margin. And so will their heirs.

Ponzi FTW.

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If I could trust that I wouldn’t lose my job unless I made a major f-up, and that I’d find a job sending a letter in the classifieds adds within 1-2 days, and I’d get a livable pension in a livable age I wouldn’t invest a dime. Would be like my parents: make 100, spend 99. Not like their friends who made 100 and spent 120.

But since we don’t live in Old Economy Steve’s world…need to take the risk for the hope of a chance to have a decent life before 70.

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US RMDs will force withdrawals.

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Not everything I write deserves an answer :wink:

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Is this still a thing the do-your-own-research hype?

As in “hey I don’t get why I should invest in your shitcoin, I can’t get the value it holds” “bro, I have no time explaining it to you, that’s the new thing, do your own research”

How do you fellow kids like this gem?

(Source)


Not sure exactly what currencies Sven calculated this with (probably DXY).

I ran some numbers in CHF and not surprised arrived at -2.2%.
Season with inflation to taste. :ok_hand:

SPY on Dec 31 2024:

  • USD 586.08
  • CHF 531.69 (CHF 1 = USD 1.1023)

SPY on Sep 9 2025, about now:

  • USD 649.16
  • CHF 516.11 (CHF 1 = USD 1.2578)

SPY dividends till the end of July 2025

  • USD 3.457
  • let’s call it CHF 3, throw in a generous 84 centimes to the first nine September days, total of CHF 4.

(520-531.69)/531.69 = -2.2%


VT must be even worse* …

* Just triggering all the hedging guys to crawl out of their holes :wink:

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I wonder what the implications for inflation would be. I see the dilemma facing the ECB. If inflation rises (which is a possibility, not a certainty, although I personally believe the likelihood of sustained inflation above 2%, or even 3%, is greater than 50%), then under its “whatever it takes” approach, the ECB would have limited room to raise rates. Doing so could worsen the situation in France and Italy, potentially even leading to defaults.

I have no idea whether the ECB would dare to buy French bonds to help keep the country solvent while simultaneously raising rates. Such a move would be politically charged and could effectively amount to a mutualisation of bad debt.

Following this line of thought, there is a significant risk of stagflation in the Eurozone.

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A Greek is chuckling in the corner here.

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