What’s unfortunate is that countries getting good deals are the ones making impossible/unrealistic commitments that they will never deliver on (i.g: EU energy imports). Swiss diplomats are too serious and honest to lie.
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Here is explanation from Greer about Switzerland . Basically since CH cannot reduce the trade deficit , it’s challenging. Switzerland doesn’t have capacity to buy more stuff from US, so more or less US wants to buy less from CH.
I guess only option left would be massive investments in US which would be tough as companies (Pharma) who can invest are the ones who need to reduce their prices in US by 50%.
The tariff rate is determined % trade deficit. Very simple. Also mentioned by Greer.
Every word these asshats speak makes me furious. Why in gods name do we NEED to reduce the trade deficit. It does not make any sense.
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Maybe we’ll have soon some Brolex™, made in the US 
By the way it’s funny how we went from reciprocal (which makes some sense at least) to this mostly non sense trade deficit based one (why X% deficit should have X% tariff, might as well be X/20 or any other value).
We can’t blame US team. Some trading partners have basically agreed on this arguments.
Thats why we see massive commitment to buy US gas and oil & aeroplanes to reduce trade deficit by EU, Japan, South Korea, Indonesia etc
This has emboldened the stand of US team.
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Imagine if EU announced tomorrow, 34% extra tax on all US services because that’s the deficit. US will undoubtedly go bananas. But I doubt EU will have guts to go this direction given the situation on defence side
It’s alright guys (and single gal, unless we have more). The key would be to maintain our personal revenue, which in itself is looking shittier by the day given the impact this can have, if it materializes, so we can continue investing.
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We totally clearly have more. There’s probably lots of women on here.
People will often assume by default, that a poster will be a straight middle aged cis guy, though that’s not necessarily true.
Poll from th MMM-forum:
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Pharma unfortunately looks very dire.
Trump will not back down there. Either lower prices or tariffs.
It‘s going to be very harsh times for the economy soon.
I‘m quite scared tbh and feel rather helpless & angry.
It‘s literally being extortet by the boss of the biggest Mafia there is, and nothing you can do.
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To be fair, we’ve been happy to fly under the radar and play with all sides, EU, US, China, during the good times, while we could.
The world has changed and is asking us to get more integrated with some partner(s). It’s on us to either get stronger on our own, smarter on our own, or to make the deals that will allow for us to stand stronger with allies when the need arises.
In negociation, we need to have a stick and a carrot. I do hope our leaders have considered the sticks they can use too and are making the US team interested in making these negociations reach a positive conclusion (instead of thinking, pfew, Switzerland, we can do what we want, what do you think they can do?).
For example, when the EU got their 15% deal, the correct reaction, in hindsight, was an “oh sh***! we NEED to make a deal happen or we’re screwed!”) and not the reaction I had internally, which I suspect some of our leaders may have had too, which was “good sign, we’re likely to end around the same place then.”
On the longer run, the tariffs will hurt the US but it’ll hurt them less if they get deals with their most important trade partners and squeeze the smaller countries. It’s ours to protect our interests and make it not happen.
So, yes, the US are playing a self destructive, stupid game, here. But that’s outside of our sphere of influence. What we have mastery on is what we do and we need to get that in order right now. I do hope it is what we are doing.
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This is the part I‘m most worried about.
The EU got their semi-good deal now. They don‘t need to help us.
We are basically alone now, and have essentially no leverage at all.
Before everyone was kind of in the same boat and there was a possibility to band together and form a cohesive ex-US block.
No one will join our block now and risk their “good” deals.
If US doesn’t want to have a trade deficit, Switzerland cannot really do much. So the only option is to export less to US and try to find more export opportunities to other regions.
This weird demand of US is not possible to be met. Indeed it’s bad for Swiss Pharma. Other industries might still be able to manage. But Pharma is very dependent on US customers.
Most likely it would lead to Novartis / Roche to move more production to US to serve US market. This would impact jobs.
I have a feeling that CH will strike a deal with US but I also think it would be a very bad concession which might not be good . Let’s see what happens
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There is no point of fighting a trade war with US for Switzerland. There is nothing to gain from that. US does not make anything interesting in goods. Most likely some medicines which we need anyways.
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Indeed pharma is squeezed in ex-US due to tariffs, squeezed in the US due to price cuts AND Biden’s IRA. Merck already announced 3bn in cost cutting: jobs, outsourcing (my job), acquisitions, pipeline. Bonuses and promotions off the table, layoffs and hiring freeze already enacted in several firms. I’ve been thinking of a pivot for some time but haven’t acted upon it.
Same, and it’s the idiocy that precipitated that that drives me up the wall.
“The US gets a cold, the world gets pneumonia”, we say.
Good 60% of revenue of most pharmas comes from the US. They are shitting themselves and have been since Biden’s IRA - which is a GOOD THING for both patients and Medicare. Basically I am talking to (pharma) clients and they are in the same boat we’re all in, can’t plan with all this uncertainty.
Really wondering if to trim some positions that ran well, my TQQQ is about +25% in a handful of months, the SMA strat I am following says to keep but…solidifying profits off a trading/betting position may not be a bad idea. Then again, selling when down, even 5% down, is dumb.
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You referring to MSD or Merck (European) ?
Is your own job impacted?
I think in long run - patients will also suffer because new drug research will be not funded. Specially patients with rare diseases.
I think US is trying to cut prices without business model overhaul and in matter of weeks. This as everything else has good intentions but bad process.
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It’s the same firm, different name. There’s also the OG Merck (KGaA) but it’s a different firm.
Of course my job is impacted, we have a lot less work than usual, and it’s not just us but everyone in the pharma consulting space. I’ve kept my job through 2 years of many many rounds of layoffs, but for how long I don’t know.
I disagree, the margins on rare disease drugs are astronomical, there are often special innovation pots or other ringfenced money for rare diseases in most countries, plus the data requirements are a lot more lenient. The thing is…selling a drug for 1-3mn a pop means little to either payers or pharma when there are 50 eligible patients on earth. Pharma will go where the money is, the slices of the pie have been getting smaller and smaller and harder to get for nearly 20 years now. Victim of their own success? When I started working metastatic melanoma was a definite horrible death sentence, 15 years later there are phenomenally good drugs available which is amazing for patients. HepC can be cured. MASH and Alzheimer’s are the last two big pieces of the drug pie left. Medicine and science has just become very good once molecular biology started kicking in around the 80s, and really taking off since 2000.
Edit: it’s not that medicine is solved, cell therapy, gene editing and neural interfacing are emerging but they have a long way to go still.
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This might be interesting for some. Excerpt from heated phone call between CH & Trump
TLDR -: Trump said CH is stealing 40b from US, refused to talk about services and more or less asked to get the difference in terms of „offer“
Quote
Speaking on condition of anonymity, a White House official portrayed the outcome of the call as the Swiss refusing to make meaningful concessions on trade barriers. A country that is very wealthy wasn’t going to get an agreement without major concessions, the person said.
For Trump, a goods trade imbalance of nearly $40 billion is akin to stealing from the US and he wanted the Swiss to increase its offer, the person said.
When Keller-Sutter didn’t offer anything that would see the trade balance change, Trump was so angry that the 39% rate he imposed on the Swiss hours later was chosen more or less at random, according to a person familiar with the matter.
Unquote.
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Moral outrage has no impact on Trump because he has no morals. Need to play by his rules, it will be painful but there’s no other way. Say…the Swiss govt subsidized Swiss pharma’s sales to the US and US patients got no drugs from Roche and Novartis for a few years. Don’t bring a knife to a gunfight. I’m dead serious.
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I think Swiss people are normally reasonable and try to find a solution. But most likely they don’t appreciate absurd discussions.
This has to be tough when dealing with Trump
Trump -: you are stealing 40B
CH -: trade deficit is not a „loss“ , it’s symbol of your prosperity and our high quality products
Trump -: you need to pay up
CH -: you should consider full trade balance not just goods, we buy 20 B more services from you.
Trump -: you are stealing 40B. We can steal whatever we want , we are MAGA
CH -: we don’t apply tariffs on any industrial goods for you . So not much to do
Trump -: so what are you offering? To pay back 40B. You cannot keep ripping us off
CH -: we are pledging investment in Pharma industry in US and we have commitments but they need to make enough money to actually make those investments.
Trump -: that’s not my problem. They should reduce their price by 80% and invest in US to produce. You know if you produce here, there is no tariff
CH -: not sure what we can do here
Trump -: you are rich, you can just pay US to sell here
CH -: that doesn’t sound reasonable
Trump -: I don’t care about you. 39% .. next
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