Chronicles of 2025

I believe most countries would like to tax companies on profits generated from their countries. But using financial and legal juggling, corporations end up paying zero or very low corporate tax. In bizarre scheme of events, companies can make big profits but pay no taxes if they are located in low tax havens. In fact Switzerland was kind of forced to accept this rule. Of course at that time US was supporting it too because their tax rate was higher.

But now Trump wants to reduce corporate tax rate in US and want to avoid getting trapped by a min 15% . So as usual , policy change because agreements don’t matter these days.

We shouldn’t mix consumption tax like VAT with corporate tax. Consumption tax is paid by consumers which normally result in higher prices for consumers. Corporate tax comes from profit of the companies.

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Employee compensation is cost and not profit for the corporation. All taxes you are referring to are not paid by Amazon, they are paid by people who live in Germany or wherever they are located . But the discussion is about tax paid by company from profit they earn.

If we simply look at VAT or income tax on salaries and consider them to be enough, then all corporate taxes should be set to zero because all companies employ people and all products from all companies are subjected to VAT%. But this would result is serious shortfall of revenues for Govt.

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They are indirectly paid by Amazon since they employ the people, who in turn then pay taxes. I understand that it is only about CIT, but I look at the total taxes a government receives, and VAT is one of them. Amazon sells a lot of products, which in turn generates VAT revenue for the government, and so on.

Maybe it’s just me, but I don’t like that some bureaucrats make some arbitrary rules with the help of the government because those can’t get their spending under control - but this is political.

Let’s see how it plays out since the US, which actually started it, just “abolished” it. Fun fact, theUS eliminated the tax treaty with Hungary(US – Update: U.S. Treasury Terminates Tax Treaty with Hungary) in part because they didn’t want to implement the framework.

That I can agree on!!!

Anyways, I now received different viewpoints from you, which helped me to understand the situation better. Thank you.

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Let’s take a moment to acknowledge that it seems VT hit the ATH again today.

So at least in USD terms, everything below is at ATH. Will take more time to get to ATH in CHF terms I guess

SPI INDEX
Bitcoin
VT
VEUR

Maybe S&P 500 will get there soon.

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I think CH might try to get out of this since US is out. Who knows.

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Especially since USD/CHF is at a 14 years low and will be at its lowest since the USD left the gold standard if it goes even just a tiny bit lower. :smiling_face_with_horns:

Let’s see how the market will react to nVidia’s earnings tomorrow. The last few times it beat but didn’t roflpwn earnings the market reacted like a kid who dropped their lolipop. I have the feeling that if they beat earnings again it’d be Greenland on Friday.

Fwiw the issue is more egregious for service based companies. Netflix, pharma, amazon (the service part with aws) etc can make a ton of profit from accessing specific market but then will make their local subsidiaries just break even (no profit) and just shift everything as licensing fee to some other shell company in a low (or no) tax jurisdiction.

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I don’t think CHF strength will continue for long. CHF went up because of trade war and not because of tariffs per se

When trade war is over and we conclude with X% tariffs, the need for safe heaven will also reduce. But because of higher inflation in US vs CH over last few years, we should expect CHF/USD to settle higher than previous support levels

I also think if USD lose its share in reserve currency market, it would actually go to Euro & Yuan. CHF doesn’t seem to be a big enough contender in this space

But let’s see what happens. No one wants very strong currency and deflation.

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I think long term CHF will be in an uptrend due to currencies somewhat following purchasing power parity, and CHF inflation being very low. That said, USD definitely had some other effects pushing up the currency, like the popularity of investing into the USA. The real question IMO is whether we overshot for a while or not. ~10% in a year is a lot for currencies to move.

so there is still time to sell in May and go away?

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Why didn’t VWRD? Are small caps overperforming?

It has in USD, still down from ATH in CHF, EUR, GBP.

Seems VWRD is also at ATH

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Weird, don’t know what I was looking at (but I made sure the listing was in USD).

Seems FWRA has reached ATH a week ago already.

Trouble in paradise? I really thought Musk would make six months.

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Bit more trouble in paradise, tariffs ordered removed: US trade court blocks Trump's sweeping tariffs in blow to trade policies - BBC News

Also “no more Taco trades” :slight_smile:

(Taco = Trump always chickens out) what an absolute bellend, “6 months ago the country was dead”
so he round tripped to where Biden left it?

Should be biggly green today.

Edit: more seriously the US needs to show that the rule of the law cannot be subverted so easily. Mega bullish for the time Taco man is no longer with us.

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Until this reaches the Supreme Court which could uphold Trump’s authority to impose tariffs


image

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Yeah. I personally think the 10% will stay either way but also believe that much of the extreme movements are largely over so I’m both short- and long-term bullish. Probably will resume buying regularly next month, but have grown rather fond of the cash buffer.

As I’d written here or in another thread, I’m considering actually doubling down and bringing my US allocation higher (80%, up from 70%) especially considering that I’d buying USD with CHF.

Most of them. If the administration deigns to follow court orders - a disclaimer one has to make these days


The court ruled in favor of a permanent injunction, potentially grinding Trump’s global tariffs to a halt before “deals” with most other trading partners have even been reached. The court ordered a window of 10 calendar days for administrative orders “to effectuate the permanent injunction.” That means the bulk – but not all – of Trump’s tariffs would be put in a standstill if the ruling holds up in appeal and, potentially, with the Supreme Court.

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