There is no quality UCITS ETF that implement ACWI IMI or FTSE all world all cap, which is my benchmark. The fact that you did not include small caps (10% market weight) created lots of tailwind for you, as they lagged large caps enormously, like 5% on average annually . That’s why including them presents real diveresification without going into tilts.
I’d say State Street. They are actively cutting fees.
Just to warn you guys. I’ll drop around 30k into the market later this month and probably another 100-110k in March/April (I’m in the selling process of my apartment). Some of it will be invested into UPRO aswell. So my stock allocation will increase from 120k to 250k.
“Excluding the Cortana and PhilMongoose effects, the market seems to be soft landing Amazon, Microsoft, Alfabet beating but not humiliating earnings. Keep looking out for nVidia earnings and Meta regulatory woes in ye olde world. Tesla will soon be relegated to a pink sheet, but we expect a bounce when Wall Street veteran and convicted felon Jordan Belfort turns his sights on it.
Our outlook remains hold” said an analyst at Mirager Capital Management’s quarterly letter to shareholders.
My takeaway is that most of the stock market in US is driven by momentum and not by conviction
A moment of uncertainty causes big drawdowns on big tech stocks. GOOG, MSFT, Qualcomm, AMD, AMZN all had big drop post earnings. It clearly shows most investors don’t really believe in the fundamentals story but they hope that momentum continues
I wouldn’t be surprised that market slowly moves from producers of AI to users of AI. AI might just become commodity like internet which is great for consumers. Good tech at low price is very democratic
We remain underweight on US equities for risk management purposes
It applies to most markets I think but the euphoria can vary.
Just to be clear . US underweight is not due to euphoria or over valuation concerns. I just don’t like 63% exposure to one country. So for now I only like 50% US exposure for my portfolio
Eh, greed. I’m genuinely curious if some sort of political intervention may take place to revert a crash, even in a Victorian-level capitalist society like the US, knowing how many peoples’ pensions may be decimated in the event of a 2000 or 2008 crash makes me wonder if JPow, Super Mario (actually Lagarde) and Co may pull out all the stops to prevent it from happening or reverse it like it happened with covid.
I stick to my prior view. Its time to prepare for a shooting war, either in Taiwan or Europe. Its further time to prepare for confiscation by dictators. Therefore, I will indeed:
Reduce US Stock Exposure to 33% of my Non-CH Shares, initially 50% and then further flexing down
Diversify Fund Locations, particularely exiting part of my IE based ETF in favor of CH based Index Funds (yes, they are less tax efficient but this is a mitigation for a 100% loss risk)
Materially increase Gold exposure
With regard to geographic diversification of brokers, I will probably wait for a while, this only becomes relevant if Switzerland is beeing pulled into the conflict.
I hate it, every day some new bullshit adding volatility to my investments. OK, I gain in some strategies from volatility, but it is always hard to stomach it. But that will never, I repeat, never, change the way I invest.
There has been no crash with announcement. OK, some people announce crashes all the time and sometimes just have to be right, but that is another story.
I cannot remember a single moment of my lifetime where there was no war. The last war in Europe before Ukraine was 30 years ago. The stock market usually rises “when cannons fire”. The stock market usually rises anyhow over a periods of two to three decades.
BTW: since the 80s I say that VAT are very bad for any business. A business that has maxed out sale prices and makes less than the VAT amount goes bankrupt and ceases to exist only because of this stupid tax. Now the USA says that it will be implementing taxes at the same height that other countries do. The target should be to quit those taxes everywhere, it did hurt us long enough! But in the meantime it will hurt us even more.
Now the rapidly changing US policies have no impact on my investing, I invest in a mechanical way and do always the same in the same situation.
Valuations might be on the higher side (but have been for years).
While there might be a lot of noise from Trump, in the end, I see mostly positives for the stock market. His last term was noted for de-regulation and tax cuts and the same is happening again.
I believe there are risks involved with over exposure to US market at this moment. Not because of valuations . But because of geopolitical situation.
I am not sure what’s the right exposure to US stocks. But 60-65% seems too high (world market weight). Everyone should make their decision on how much exposure to one country is acceptable.
Investors have a tough choice to make though. US markets are large and not easy to ignore. However if US was not such large market, people would have simply sold off their positions by now.
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