Which post are you referring to? (Sorry, I couldn’t resist … 
)
I think I actually agree with parts of the analogy Mr Ferguson draws, but there’s alternative facts angles:
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Niall Ferguson is probably smart, but he is almost certainly attention seeking. Posting things the way he posts certainly generates more clicks or gathers more attention to his brand than saying something less bearish? How does mentioning Minecraft shortly after the movie named so has opened in theatres really fit into this narrative or paragraph, apart from dropping en vogue terms like shock, mind virus, etc etc.
Answer: Mr Ferguson’s equity is probably mostly his brand; he works on increasing his brand value?
(filed under: show me the incentives, I’ll show you the outcome) -
As mentioned in this and other threads, I believe the Orange Swan – despite his much asserted unpredictability – is much more predictable than a pandemic. Doing or stating the “unspeakable thing” is perhaps* part of an early stage of negotiating, with the intention of up-front tilting the terms in your favor by saying the unspeakable thing, but it only goes as far as the other party believes you will go through with your unspeakable thing.
The (bond) market exerts power, and – if only via proxies – calls the bluff, and this seems to induce brain activity and reconsiderations even in that Orange Swan brain …
Further, even or maybe especially narcist Orange Swans, especially of the Trump kind, have survival instincts, and they will in their populist and instinct sense when they’ve gone too far, and reverse course (while declaring victory) if necessary.
(filed under: primordial self preservation; flavor: crowd-loving populists)
Famous last words, but I cling to my original thought that even if one Orange Swan has lots of power, if most** of the rest of Western world thinks otherwise, the corresponding market power will sway things accordingly. Some pain and hiccups in between, but many many trillions of money put to work with some intention will trump (pun intended) even a couple hundred billions of money of self-interest (or ignorance inherited, in my dark scenario).
* In a less favorable reading, the erratic statements aren't part of a "strategy" or "tactic", but ... well, I won't endulge in my personal interpretation of how someone born with a silver spoon can make dumb decisions for a really long time.
** Hungary. Any other country?