CHF:USD trends and portfolio strategy

Just reviewed my USD-denominated IB portfolio performance (S&P ETF tracker, some corporate and gov’t bond ETFs, a fintech ETF and about 20% in AMZN, NFLX and GILD). Up about 20% over 2020 but factoring the CHF:USD change into account I’m up about 9% over 2020.

I’m wondering if others here who are CH based are looking at what appears to be a new era of central bank monetary policy and adding more Swiss assets to their portfolios.

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Hi dave_in_gva!

This question is also on my mind. Long ago, I was careful and avoided overweighting the US, even in the decade of growth, and made sure I had reasonable allocations to Switzerland, Europe, Asia. My strategy right now is to not change anything and stick to the plan. Since the USD is lower, it drives me to buy assets in USD. It is a bit uncomfortable for sure, but I always feel that way being a contrarian when I rebalance. I have no idea what the future will be and this is why I remain highly diversified.

If the USD goes down, your assets denominated in USD should naturally go up because the intrinsic value of the asset has not changed in itself. This is why the stock market going up when money is printed does not mean much.

In other words, half the appreciation you saw (11%) is just the adjustment of the asset price to the new USD value.

Therefore, it does not seem that you have to change your allocation as all things are still balanced. You might want to consider rebalancing if you think the US are going to be in serious trouble in the coming decade or is going to lose its economical predominance. But it is not related to the exchange rate.

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