Car depreciation trends/charts

Hi there - I’m trying to look (in vain) for a car depreciation chart that could draw real data out of the past (and potentially forecast into the future).

I found some calculators, but they are barely taking into account the particular model (a BMW 320d is the same “3 series” as an M340i for example). All I get is the standard exponential function, which is OK in general, but does not account for differences between car models.

If you know any good tools (even paid), I’d be keen.

I’m trying to buy a very-non-mustachian vehicle, but I am mindful of the depreciation impact, so I’d like to catch an “ideal moment” to keep the car for a longer time.

Two things that interest me:

  • what’s happening with a my current 7 year car beyond the 10-year cliff. My previous experience tells me that a 10-yr car might be very hard to sell in Switzerland (only with a huge discount).
  • what might happen with a specialty ICE car (BMW M models, Porsches, Audi RS and the like) in the future up around ~2030 given electrification will come. The EVs I have yet driven have not blown me away, so I suspect a low-milage, taken-care-of car might command a higher resale price from the driving enthusiasts, and thus the lower depreciation could be stomached better. I know it’s a crystal ball question :crystal_ball:

Typically quicker depreciation curve in the first few years and then slower later. As long the km driven are low. Now, if you talk about top of the line and hard to get such as 911/Boxster GT3/4 or S/T, then likely to keep value and appreciate. If I had 350k spare and lockable away for 10years, I’d buy a manual Murcielago. The top and special cars will appreciate even, just a bit better higher spec such as ordinary Ms/RS not that much. Electrization will not make a difference here. Its a dilema hypercars have to deal with - how do you sell a car for 3-500+K when a Kia GT is similarly fast in straight line? Niche such as mechanical engines will remain, not so much for volume production even if top line spec. Then again I might be wrong.

On other hand, of any mechanical engines, the top spec models will hold value longer relatively, are they worth it from absolute depreciation though? Is it worth spending 60k for normal 330 and lose 60-70% in 6years (35-40k gone) or 120k for M3 CSL and lose roughly same % but ~75k in same time period? And how fast will be the EV adoption curve for masses?

IMHO any car depreciation chart is always backwards looking and with the inevitable and quickening (yay) electrification of fleet. You are far better off picking what you truly like and keep it for 10years, depreciation be dammed.

Yes I’m exactly contemplating this one. Not in the M3CSL line, that’s still hugely expensive, but a bit lower.
Two factors:

  • an ICE car will work in 15 years from now just as before (if kept well). Not sure about EV’s and batteries. 10 years in, there’s still no news about what to do with failed EV batteries apart from getting a new one for 20-25k. No recycling, no plug-and-play updates on chemistry, etc. I understand the technical constraints, but it’s still hugely disappointing.

  • my BMW dealer suggested to not get an EV on cash purchase as the tech is so quickly evolving (joke’s on him, the driver facing tech is the same in the ICE cars :smiley: ), but that got me thinking a little.

I’m definitely not a leasing fan as then you’d easily just burn money paying for the service instead of the car, but stomaching a yearly 6-10k of depreciation on an owned asset would not make me sleep well either.