Buying gold Vs staying with CHF

Investing / Portfolios
148

So you’re suggesting that if tariffs don’t ever happen/UA war is over gold could go down as the world will be looking more stable?

Dunno if Trump can sell the US gold reserves but technicalities like the law never stopped him so far, so I get there could be a push for prices downward if there’s more supply than demand.

I am not challenging, just trying to understand your reasoning.

I only bought gold about a month ago due to FOMO and as a diversifier but haven’t made up my mind if I want to keep it “forever” for rebalancing or short term (12-24 months).

I personally think the world will take years to calm down, so gold should do pretty well for the near future.

Overall I have very mixed feelings about gold, perhaps that’s the wrong starting point: one should not have any feelings for assets, just be factual. It took me many months and a lot of FOMO to convince myself to buy some, now I don’t know how long I want to keep it. It’s already worked though as a diversifier (but that’s luck!).

149

So you’re suggesting that if tariffs don’t ever happen/UA war is over gold could go down as the world will be looking more stable?

I think there’s been some flow to gold over concerns with Trump policies, war etc. so naturally if these uncertainties go or war is resolved, then these safe-haven flows could reverse.

If Trump sells gold, this could create a collapse of the gold price depending on how much is sold and how fast. Even the announcement of sales would have an impact. Idiot Gordon Brown did this stupid move back in 1999: telegraphed the sale of gold reserves causing a dump in price (already at multi-decade lows) and then sold half the UK gold reserves at these newly created historical lows.

If US sold, I’d see this as a buying opportunity (as I’m sure would several foreign central banks).

I only bought gold about a month ago due to FOMO

I started buying gold speculatively in 2024 as I had concerns over dollar valuation and US debt and am continuing to buy on dips. At some point, I will sell and buy stocks. I hoped the rising gold price would attract some retail FOMO/mania, but that doesn’t seemed to have happened yet.

I also bought gold miners as a further bet on rising gold prices.

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150

Yeah, I had the same thought too, the only thing is wouldn’t that buying opportunity balance price falling if demand is close to supply?

Hasn’t it? Apparently Feb 25 had the biggest inflow to gold ETFs in 3 years.

That’s what I tell myself too, just not what that time will be. Knowing myself it will probably be never as I’m always averse to selling, so most likely will look to keep it at ~5% as ballast.

151

Putting the the worlds biggest gold reserve on sale would depress prices.

152

Part of me has a hunch that some techbro is telling the POTUS “what’s this boomer shit, get rid of it”.

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153

If you’re wondering why gold shot up today, it was because my futures didn’t automatically roll over, so I missed the big one-day move. grr.

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154

Yesterday morning at open I sold 25% of the gold I bought 2 months ago and am now shaking in my boots of being classified a professional investor in 2025.

Ok, ok, I’m joking, I’m JOKING!

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155

Hey gals and guys
I have some paper gold. What’s the best way to turn it into John Wick Gold? I’d like to have it physical. (It’s not that easy as bitcoin taking off exchange).
Via Bank? As juwellery? Goldvreneli? Where to buy?

156

Sell the paper. Buy physical at the bank

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157

I have a 1oz Krugerrand Gold coin, it’s about 3.5% of my total networth at its current value.

If I just want a 2nd one so that both togheter have a value higher than a months salary (For me a “meaningful amount”), with the intention of just holding it for decades just like my VT, would that be advisable or is it just a waste of money/growth?

Or would you wait until I have a bigger networth where 2 coins would represent max 5% of it?

158

I’m not a fan physical gold. Yes, I see the value in a mad-max scenario, but that is not a scenario I plan for.

Instead, I prefer ETFs or futures as there are much lower spreads.

159

And even in such a scenario, silver coins might actually be more practical. (I hold a bit of paper gold, no physical gold or silver).

160

Not the best way but the most actionable I see to have enough of it to matter available in some doomsday scenarios: buy several smallish quantities of it. Hide some at home. Burry the rest at random spots in the forest. Map some on several different maps (never the same spot appearing on two different maps), tell some at a very few (one is a very few) very trustable people, keep some unmapped and unknown only for your memory.

Chances are you’ll loose most with time but if you prepare for it, you might have enough available at a time when it makes a meaningful difference.

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161

It’s just for the doomsday and reaching my final doomsday destination (1.6k+ km from “home”). So keep it with my emergency bag. I don’t care that much if it gets stolen before doomsday. No time for sofiaticated storage… should be ready within hours not days.

In such an event, only bartening will work… I suppose. To get diesel and food on my way, small units are preferrable (maybe 10g units).

(some may laugh, but my quite close family experienced such an event not 30yrs ago… a car, few bags and some gold jewellery was the only thing they can take with… the lost land and house was settled in the courts 15yrs later)

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162

I’d go with a mix of jewelry and small ingots with the markings of a well known bank to make it easier to trust its quality, then. I have no experience in the domain, though, so that’s purely thoughts based on my fantasy of what could work in such a scenario.

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163

Jewelry is absolutely illiquid, as far as I searched (in Greece). What a family acquaintance who’s a goldsmith for 40 years told us was:

  • Unless the piece is from a known brand, old pieces are essentially unsellable other than online
  • I have no interest in buying stones from you unless your piece happens to have the exact stone I need, as I can get better and cheaper from other professionals
  • Old stones are mostly untraceable (no GIA certificate, no code) so in the slim chance the goldsmith wants to buy it they won’t do it without a hefty discount
  • So I only care about the metal
  • As in many (old) pieces the stone is the star of the show, the metal is often inferior quality, and often not stamped properly

Of course you’re talking about a Mad Max scenario where the family jewels are exchanged with cats, for food, hopefully we won’t get there :stuck_out_tongue:

Incidentally, if someone knows where/how to sell old jewelry with hopefully a different narrative to the above I’d be keen to hear.

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164

In most cases gold jewellery is melted and weighed and then paid for value of gold.

When you buy gold jewellery the price is as following

P= (A) gold value + (B) making charges + brand premium (C)

When you sell it, only A* ( new value of gold matters) . Other elements are profits for the jeweller & brand owner.

For precious stones I guess the value lies in eye of beholder. It’s almost impossible to plan for.

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165

So essentially, same narrative, better structure :slight_smile:

166

Yeah. In India , it’s very clearly known.
But still most people (traditionally)mainly buy gold jewellery because there is also a functional objective to actually wear it

Point being most people who buy gold jewellery see it as an investment but they are not the ones who are trying to minimise the TER% :wink: so they don’t care about some profit that other parties make in the value chain

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167

Gold jewellery has a larger social/cultural function, so is not efficient as a way of trading gold. However, it can be used in barter, or ultimately given up to smugglers if you are trying to flee the country.

In the last case, you can prepare in advance by buying cheap metal jewellery and gold plating it which might be then sufficient to buy you a ticket out.

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