ssppooff, nice work. I am also a DIY investor and proud Ben Felix fanboy with similar questions. I can also respond to some of the concerns raised above:
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Re: If you owe the whole market, you don’t have to worry about whether factor tilting (the strategy we’re talking about) works. According to Fama and French’s factor model(s), owning the market gets you exposure to market risk which is only 1 of (at least) 5 factors. For more info, watch this.
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Re: The value premium is dead. Ben Felix addresses this in his videos. Factors like size, value, and market risk rotate in their contributions to investment returns over time, just like industries. If you look at a longer timeline, the past 20 years isn’t the first time size and value have underperformed market risk for that period of time. It’s actually normal and expected.
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Re: once an effective investing strategy is discovered and published, it’s effectiveness vanishes. Factors are not investing strategies and I don’t think they can be abused or arbitraged away, especially in this case. By definition, value stocks cannot be overbought.
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Re: Tilting toward tech is speculative. This is actually similar to what Ben Felix would say, but doesn’t it depend on your timeline? Sure, tech is expensive right now if your timeline is 10 years, but what if it’s 30-40 years? QQQ might be an absolute steal right now if that’s your timeline.
Thoughts?