2020's risk tolerance stress test

Vanguard is a great company but let’s acknowledge that no one can say with any real certainty where the stock market will be in 1 month let alone 10 years.

Current risk premium of US equities vs forward earning, % of free cash flow returned to shareholders, and Tbond yield is super low.

Especially if interest rates start rising at all (market has priced in 0 for the next few years).

Anyway, to repeat I still have huge exposure to stocks. Just not planning on loading more money in as rapidly as I have been over the last 3 years.

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But sorry isn’t that what happens normally with rebalancing?stock is growing so fast that my split 75/25 was always in balance and my monthly contribution went to cash instead of stocks. I didn’t have to buy in the last few months

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Yes somewhat if you are 75/25 split already.

I am 100/0 but intending to start trending down towards 90/10 then 80/20 etc.

I would argue is impossible to be 100-0 in switzerland if you count the second pillar as a cash position (which i do).

Most people count the 2nd pillar as bond allocation tho…

Well usually they say XX stocks, 1-XX for non stocks stuff such as bonds, cash etc. All jumbled together. So it doesn’t really matters if I say cash or bonds.

Having said that, I would argue 2nd pillar does not behave like bonds at all, being a pile of money with some interest on it. Bonds can be way more volatile.

When people say bonds, they usually mean fixed income. High quality bonds behave that way (if you hold directly until term), a high quality bond fund should behave that way for long term holding.