# Will the stock market in 2025 continue the run from 2023 and 2024?
**URL:** https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/will-the-stock-market-in-2025-continue-the-run-from-2023-and-2024/15392
**Category:** Uncategorized
**Created:** [January 31, 2025, 2:40pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/will-the-stock-market-in-2025-continue-the-run-from-2023-and-2024/15392 "2025-01-31T14:40:46Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 1
### Author:  [@PhilMongoose](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/PhilMongoose)
#### Post date: [January 31, 2025, 2:40pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/will-the-stock-market-in-2025-continue-the-run-from-2023-and-2024/15392/1 "2025-01-31T14:40:46Z")
2023 and 2024 were phenominal years for stock market returns.
Just looking at my portfolio this morning, I thought “wow, that is more than I expected” and checking more closely, it returned \>6% YTD!
Or putting it another way, it returned in one month what will take me the whole year to earn in my job (after taxes).
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### Author:  [@Mirager](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Mirager)
#### Post date: [January 31, 2025, 2:49pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/will-the-stock-market-in-2025-continue-the-run-from-2023-and-2024/15392/2 "2025-01-31T14:49:24Z")
Yeah I wondered the same this morning, the market is manic…I wonder when it’ll turn depressive…
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### Author:  [@Tony1337](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Tony1337)
#### Post date: [January 31, 2025, 2:52pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/will-the-stock-market-in-2025-continue-the-run-from-2023-and-2024/15392/3 "2025-01-31T14:52:35Z")
Maybe? Potentially.
Feels like we are running into a bubble and a big setback coming soon-ish.
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### Author:  [@Mirager](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Mirager)
#### Post date: [January 31, 2025, 3:26pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/will-the-stock-market-in-2025-continue-the-run-from-2023-and-2024/15392/4 "2025-01-31T15:26:19Z")
I am having the same thoughts, followed by “But I read the same last year, and apparently people were saying/writing the same in 2017, 2020…”. Frankly the only thing keeping me from pushing the big red “SELL ALL” button is that a) I put down a plan of action for 2025 back in mid 2024, and intend to stick with it and b) sweet dirty sweaty taxable dividends that I don’t need but tickle my brain in weird and wonderful ways 😛
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### Author:  [@Tony1337](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Tony1337)
#### Post date: [January 31, 2025, 3:59pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/will-the-stock-market-in-2025-continue-the-run-from-2023-and-2024/15392/5 "2025-01-31T15:59:23Z")
I have my leveraged all-weather strategy (that hopefully pans out the way I thought it out). So either way I just keep buying haha
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### Author:  [@cubanpete\_the\_swiss](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/cubanpete_the_swiss)
#### Post date: [January 31, 2025, 4:18pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/will-the-stock-market-in-2025-continue-the-run-from-2023-and-2024/15392/6 "2025-01-31T16:18:06Z")
Nice. 👍
“Only” 3.33% so far. It is way over the median for my dividend portfolio and slightly under the medium of my momentum-growth portfolio.
Now the important question: will it continue the run? Good question, next question…
Nobody knows but fortunately you don’t need to know. What you need to know is what to do in any situation. Write it down, play it in your head, 20% loss, 50% loss, more! Plan for it, even hopefully you’ll never need it. And then stick to the plan.
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### Author:  [@mabi](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/mabi)
#### Post date: [January 31, 2025, 5:07pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/will-the-stock-market-in-2025-continue-the-run-from-2023-and-2024/15392/8 "2025-01-31T17:07:10Z")
> [@Tony1337](#):
>
> I have my leveraged all-weather strategy (that hopefully pans out the way I thought it out). So either way I just keep buying haha
That type of portfolio has like 50% bonds, you really have so much in bonds? I am also thinking of buying more into bond ETFS than stock ETFs this year. I have already VGSH. Which bonds ETF do you have in your all weather portfolio?
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### Author:  [@Tony1337](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Tony1337)
#### Post date: [January 31, 2025, 5:14pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/will-the-stock-market-in-2025-continue-the-run-from-2023-and-2024/15392/9 "2025-01-31T17:14:51Z")
> [@ProvidentRetriever](#):
>
> I have this feeling too but maybe it’s only the magnificient 7 that are overpriced? In Switzerland we have barely recovered to the levels of end of 2021, that doesn’t sound like a bubble yet to me.
Kind of, but everything is priced pretty highly currently from a valuation perspective.
> [@mabi](#):
>
> That type of portfolio has like 50% bonds, you really have so much in bonds? I am also thinking of buying more into bond ETFS than stock ETFs this year. I have already VGSH. Which bonds ETF do you have in your all weather portfolio?
That would be the more classic all-weather approach.
I’m mainly using trend following & carry (and some other smaller strategies) managed futures.
Currently that would be 80% factor tilted stocks + 80% of a managed futures ensemble.
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### Author:  [@Abs\_max](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Abs_max)
#### Post date: [January 31, 2025, 5:35pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/will-the-stock-market-in-2025-continue-the-run-from-2023-and-2024/15392/10 "2025-01-31T17:35:47Z")
Market will go down unexpectedly without notice and that’s why investors enjoy such returns because they have to live with this uncertainty
But we have to be honest, other than US, last few years have not been so stellar for the rest of world. So maybe a bit of change on regional split of returns can happen
Fun fact -: SMI is on the roll still. More than 9% up this year. 🙂 go CH
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### Author:  [@afstand](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/afstand)
#### Post date: [January 31, 2025, 7:03pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/will-the-stock-market-in-2025-continue-the-run-from-2023-and-2024/15392/11 "2025-01-31T19:03:51Z")
There is such a strong momentum in the market… I’d say it is likely to go up further. But as the market is quite expensive, the thing that eventually destroys the momentum can have a strong impact.
Anyway this is not actionable, but well entertaining.
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### Author:  [@Joe\_Coconut](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Joe_Coconut)
#### Post date: [January 31, 2025, 7:21pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/will-the-stock-market-in-2025-continue-the-run-from-2023-and-2024/15392/12 "2025-01-31T19:21:44Z")
I am not afraid of a major crash…If it happens the monetary flood gates will open quickly.
Just dont panic sell when it hits and miss the recovery. Easier said than done, sure.
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### Author:  [@Abs\_max](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Abs_max)
#### Post date: [January 31, 2025, 7:32pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/will-the-stock-market-in-2025-continue-the-run-from-2023-and-2024/15392/13 "2025-01-31T19:32:03Z")
Exactly
A 30% crash in S&P wouldn’t come together with a nice narrative. Tough to buy in those times even though it might be the best thing to do
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### Author:  [@Joe\_Coconut](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Joe_Coconut)
#### Post date: [January 31, 2025, 7:37pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/will-the-stock-market-in-2025-continue-the-run-from-2023-and-2024/15392/14 "2025-01-31T19:37:12Z")
I think it helps to consider it your job to manage somebody else’s money professionally.
Then it is necessary to write down the investment strategy on paper and actually define what to do in drawdown situations.
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### Author:  [@cubanpete\_the\_swiss](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/cubanpete_the_swiss)
#### Post date: [January 31, 2025, 7:47pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/will-the-stock-market-in-2025-continue-the-run-from-2023-and-2024/15392/15 "2025-01-31T19:47:38Z")
Yep, been there. I have seen many bear markets and it helps to have a plan.
It won’t help against the pain. I think in his book “thinking fast and slow” Kahneman describes the pain of losing money as more or less double than the joy of making money. So, for one dollar lost you need to make two dollars just to get even…
Enjoy the bull market as long as it lasts, the pain will be hard.
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### Author:  [@Mirager](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Mirager)
#### Post date: [January 31, 2025, 7:50pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/will-the-stock-market-in-2025-continue-the-run-from-2023-and-2024/15392/16 "2025-01-31T19:50:52Z")
Isn’t this what we’ve all been training here for? We’re like Luke Skywalker, going back to Yoda to become a Jedi Master, a Skilled Graphs NINJA. Within us the graphs flooooow we feeeeeel.
(sorry, have been working 13 hours today)
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### Author:  [@Abs\_max](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Abs_max)
#### Post date: [January 31, 2025, 7:55pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/will-the-stock-market-in-2025-continue-the-run-from-2023-and-2024/15392/17 "2025-01-31T19:55:42Z")
Training and real life is always different 🙂
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### Author:  [@Mirager](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Mirager)
#### Post date: [January 31, 2025, 7:58pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/will-the-stock-market-in-2025-continue-the-run-from-2023-and-2024/15392/18 "2025-01-31T19:58:40Z")
Depends. I am sure any crash will shake out all the stock geniuses of the last many years who otherwise have a nervous breakdown when they’re short changed by the Pfand machine in Weil Am Rhein. I am confident I’ll walk the walk when the time comes.
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### Author:  [@mabi](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/mabi)
#### Post date: [January 31, 2025, 8:20pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/will-the-stock-market-in-2025-continue-the-run-from-2023-and-2024/15392/19 "2025-01-31T20:20:14Z")
> [@Abs\_max](#):
>
> Fun fact -: SMI is on the roll still. More than 9% up this year. 🙂 go CH
Same nearly for the CAC40 with 7.72% YTD.
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### Author:  [@afstand](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/afstand)
#### Post date: [January 31, 2025, 8:36pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/will-the-stock-market-in-2025-continue-the-run-from-2023-and-2024/15392/20 "2025-01-31T20:36:21Z")
One of the things that IMO plays a role is that lots of investors have been coached by John Bogle, JL Collins and others to not panic in a dip. That’s why in recent time dips that had a potential to be crashes were just that, dips. Buy the dip.
A personal example. I was scared by _COVID the virus_ in February 2020 before lockdowns and disruption of the international travel, even cancelled a trip to Indonesia in February. But the market was tanking and I was willing to buy more (though did not have money to buy more).
Lots of people wanted to do the same. For instance, the queue to open a DeGiro account was months, they did not have capacity to open new accounts.
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### Author:  [@Abs\_max](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Abs_max)
#### Post date: [January 31, 2025, 8:39pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/will-the-stock-market-in-2025-continue-the-run-from-2023-and-2024/15392/21 "2025-01-31T20:39:47Z")
Maybe next month you can do some shopping 🙂
Trump tariffs go live tomorrow - round one
Next in line is Europe
Perhaps this would shake the markets because until now people assumed it’s a threat tactic but now it seems to be hurt other economies to benefit US tactic.
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