# When do we reach the bottom of the dip? (2022-24 Edition)
**URL:** https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/when-do-we-reach-the-bottom-of-the-dip-2022-24-edition/7762
**Category:** Investing / Others
**Created:** [January 22, 2022, 4:29pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/when-do-we-reach-the-bottom-of-the-dip-2022-24-edition/7762 "2022-01-22T16:29:32Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 26
### Author:  [@Wolverine](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Wolverine)
#### Post date: [November 28, 2022, 4:33pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/when-do-we-reach-the-bottom-of-the-dip-2022-24-edition/7762/569 "2022-11-28T16:33:10Z")
What a surprise! Turns out there’s still Covid in China and the population is fed up with it. Next, the market will discover that, against all expectations, people do actually use energy during the winter and that core CPI stable at 6% for various lengths of time doesn’t mean that inflation is going down no matter what the media say…
/sarcasm.
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### Author:  [@Dr.PI](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Dr.PI)
#### Post date: [November 28, 2022, 7:18pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/when-do-we-reach-the-bottom-of-the-dip-2022-24-edition/7762/570 "2022-11-28T19:18:08Z")
You don’t understand! Iphones are in danger!
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### Author:  [@Wolverine](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Wolverine)
#### Post date: [November 28, 2022, 7:39pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/when-do-we-reach-the-bottom-of-the-dip-2022-24-edition/7762/571 "2022-11-28T19:39:51Z")
Like they weren’t before. 😛
Anyway, this brings out my gambling instincts and I’m back with a short position (still net long when all is said and done).
> [@kawansky](#):
>
> Who do I turn to for ETF shorts with a reasonable TER? Any recommendations?
Not exactly low TER (which is why you should avoid it but I’m in a playful mood tonight) but SARK could be a fun place to be in. Speaking of which, ARKK is now beaten by the S&P500 since inception.
Edit: Sorry if this sounds disrespectful for the protesters in China. They have suffered a lot and I wish them that the craziness stops.
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### Author:  [@Gesk](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Gesk)
#### Post date: [November 30, 2022, 10:10pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/when-do-we-reach-the-bottom-of-the-dip-2022-24-edition/7762/572 "2022-11-30T22:10:08Z")
> [@Wolverine](#):
>
> I’m back with a short position
Well timed 😬
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### Author:  [@Wolverine](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Wolverine)
#### Post date: [November 30, 2022, 10:15pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/when-do-we-reach-the-bottom-of-the-dip-2022-24-edition/7762/573 "2022-11-30T22:15:56Z")
Eh, mainly pure luck and it could totally have gone the other way but I got out yesterday at close. My guess was that today would have been a down day, so I could totally have gotten caught in it, but I didn’t like the oscillating the NASDAQ composite was doing.
I’m still globally down 25% on those gambles, and I’m probably slowly learning that I can’t profit from those but I’ll probably need some more ironing and potential losses before that’ll be truly imprinted in me.
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### Author:  [@kraphael](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/kraphael)
#### Post date: [December 1, 2022, 8:12am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/when-do-we-reach-the-bottom-of-the-dip-2022-24-edition/7762/574 "2022-12-01T08:12:59Z")
I find it psychologically too hard too short, I have instead been rotating into sectors that are doing well in this general downtrend, like energy-, pharma- and insurance. I see no need to buy the whole market.
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### Author:  [@Wolverine](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Wolverine)
#### Post date: [December 1, 2022, 8:36pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/when-do-we-reach-the-bottom-of-the-dip-2022-24-edition/7762/575 "2022-12-01T20:36:54Z")
I find it psychologically draining too. I find shorting akin to getting out of the market (selling all assets) on leverage (selling more than we actually have). Leverage removes any cap on our downside we may have had, and the upside is capped by the level of actual leverage we are willing to use. The risk profile of the investment is far, far worse than that of a long position with unlimited upside and capped downside.
I find casual shoots of “if you’re so sure of the market going down, why don’t you short it?” to be off the mark. It requires more than just conviction to short, it also requires a very high willingness and ability to take risk. Not everybody (and I would guess actually very few people) have it.
I would compare it to a statement of “if you can handle the volatility of a 100% stocks position, why not take it further and bet it all on cryptos?” The two investments don’t have the same risk profile. Same with shorting and sitting in cash.
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### Author:  [@anon21880037](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/anon21880037)
#### Post date: [December 1, 2022, 9:04pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/when-do-we-reach-the-bottom-of-the-dip-2022-24-edition/7762/576 "2022-12-01T21:04:26Z")
A little off topic. There is a documentary on netflix Dirty Money – S01 E03 Drug Short.
An episode on a fund shorting valeant, quite interesting, not just the facts around valeant but all the research that went prior shorting. Plus in the US you also need to communicate what you are shorting if you are professional
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### Author:  [@MrCheese](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/MrCheese)
#### Post date: [December 1, 2022, 9:11pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/when-do-we-reach-the-bottom-of-the-dip-2022-24-edition/7762/577 "2022-12-01T21:11:36Z")
> [@anon21880037](#):
>
> An episode on a fund shorting valeant
Wasn’t that Bill Ackmann?
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### Author:  [@anon21880037](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/anon21880037)
#### Post date: [December 1, 2022, 9:30pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/when-do-we-reach-the-bottom-of-the-dip-2022-24-edition/7762/578 "2022-12-01T21:30:40Z")
> [@anon21880037](#):
>
> Dirty Money – S01 E03 Drug Short.
Nah, he lost big time, 2-3 billions. Episode summary: [Dirty Money - S01 E03 Drug Short - Cadence Capital](https://www.cadencecapital.com.au/books/dirty-money/)
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### Author:  [@kraphael](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/kraphael)
#### Post date: [December 2, 2022, 6:35am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/when-do-we-reach-the-bottom-of-the-dip-2022-24-edition/7762/579 "2022-12-02T06:35:39Z")
> [@Wolverine](#):
>
> I find shorting akin to getting out of the market (selling all assets) on leverage (selling more than we actually have).
At least now we start to get a (tiny) yield on our cash deposit, it makes it a bit easier to wait for a better re-entry
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### Author:  [@Dr.PI](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Dr.PI)
#### Post date: [December 2, 2022, 8:28am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/when-do-we-reach-the-bottom-of-the-dip-2022-24-edition/7762/580 "2022-12-02T08:28:33Z")
> [@kraphael](#):
>
> a (tiny) yield on our cash deposit,
No! Before July your 0 interest rate account was yielding 0.75% above the risk free rate. Now you can get the risk free rate on cash CHF deposits if you are lucky.
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### Author:  [@Dr.PI](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Dr.PI)
#### Post date: [December 14, 2022, 7:11am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/when-do-we-reach-the-bottom-of-the-dip-2022-24-edition/7762/581 "2022-12-14T07:11:48Z")
[https://seekingalpha.com/article/4563905-inflation-slowed-less-than-2-percent-deflation-next](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4563905-inflation-slowed-less-than-2-percent-deflation-next)
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### Author:  [@Dr.PI](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Dr.PI)
#### Post date: [April 4, 2025, 2:39pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/when-do-we-reach-the-bottom-of-the-dip-2022-24-edition/7762/582 "2025-04-04T14:39:57Z")
A post was merged into an existing topic: [Benchmarking The Market](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/benchmarking-the-market/15991/3)
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### Author:  [@kraphael](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/kraphael)
#### Post date: [January 14, 2023, 12:49pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/when-do-we-reach-the-bottom-of-the-dip-2022-24-edition/7762/583 "2023-01-14T12:49:02Z")
> [@Benchmarking The Market](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/benchmarking-the-market/15991/3):
>
> However in December a new low was not lower than the previous one. All major indices show a very similar picture.
I agree: VWRL is now making higher lows, all negative news like earnings compression seem to have been priced in already and trend looks like it might reverse soon
Emerging markets and Europe look like they have already bottomed, NASDAQ might have another leg down
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### Author:  [@dbu](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/dbu)
#### Post date: [January 14, 2023, 1:06pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/when-do-we-reach-the-bottom-of-the-dip-2022-24-edition/7762/584 "2023-01-14T13:06:51Z")
And then there are “prophets” like Marks that believe some “sea change” coming ahead still.
[ ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2NOKa8zUGtM)
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### Author:  [@San\_Francisco](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/San_Francisco)
#### Post date: [January 14, 2023, 1:59pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/when-do-we-reach-the-bottom-of-the-dip-2022-24-edition/7762/585 "2023-01-14T13:59:16Z")
> [@kraphael](#):
>
> all negative news like earnings compression seem to have been priced in already
Are they?
The consensus estimate on the S&P500, for instance, seems to be new record earnings this year.
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### Author:  [@wavemotion](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/wavemotion)
#### Post date: [January 16, 2023, 9:08am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/when-do-we-reach-the-bottom-of-the-dip-2022-24-edition/7762/586 "2023-01-16T09:08:23Z")
> [@San\_Francisco](#):
>
> he consensus estimate on the S&P500, for instance, seems to be new record earnings this year.
Source? 🙂
Stocks didn’t rally because financial conditions eased, financial conditions eased because the stock market rallied
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### Author:  [@San\_Francisco](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/San_Francisco)
#### Post date: [January 16, 2023, 11:38am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/when-do-we-reach-the-bottom-of-the-dip-2022-24-edition/7762/587 "2023-01-16T11:38:22Z")
[Bank of America’s Subramanian Says S&P 500 Earnings Risk a 10% Drop in 2023 | Barron's](https://www.barrons.com/amp/articles/stock-market-sp500-bank-of-america-morgan-stanley-51673647089)
[https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/additional-material/sp-500-eps-est.xlsx](https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/additional-material/sp-500-eps-est.xlsx)
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### Author:  [@Dr.PI](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Dr.PI)
#### Post date: [February 1, 2023, 9:16pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/when-do-we-reach-the-bottom-of-the-dip-2022-24-edition/7762/588 "2023-02-01T21:16:29Z")
> [@Dr.PI](#):
>
> USDCHF had just hit 3 years’ high
And today it had hit at 18 months low 🤣
It had helped indices in USD to reach the highest values since October’s bottom, which indices in CHF haven’t done yet.
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