I moved my second pillar to the vested benefits account of ValuePension. Now they say they will invest it on the first of November. I planned to put everything in stocks. I want to maximize long term average return. However, I am now thinking this might be too risky. November 1st and the following days might well be the most volatile days ever with the American elections. I am also worried that this volatility will benefit professional and high speed trainer at the cost of the less strategic blind EFT investor.
Is there any truth that Average return might be lower when investing like this in highly volatile times.
Also I see that ValuePension does not allow my money to stay in CHF for a phased increasing strock strategy over the coming months so I would have to put in bonds. Is there any downside to that?
+1 you’re trying to time the market. If you will add more money there in the future you will get an average price for the assets regardless of ups & downs.
Well it is not just a matter of increased risk. I think the expectation value of the return might even be affected. Efficient market hypothesis works well enough in normal times, but these might well be the most extreme times we have ever seen if in addition to Covid we now get a brutally contested election. I get your points though.
Lets try it from a different perspective: if this money would already be invested at this point, would you sell everything today and dollar-cost-average back in over a couple of weeks/months?
Because it’s literally the same thing, the same decision. If the answer is “No I would keep it invested as it is”, then you should invest it.
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