Replying here not to continue the off-topic conversation.
While I agree with the confirmation bias part, I am not at all sure that the first part is true. Many people experience asymmetric returns, say my friend who only invests in nVidia and Palantir because “what else would you invest in” (real person, real life friend who’s made krazy gainz the last couple of years on these two stocks). The caveat and difficulty is sustained, market-beating returns, that’s indeed rare.
Exactly. I don’t know what % is doing stock picking vs index investing among retail investors, and I mean real retail DIY investors, not pension funds. The key point is that even 7-10%/year is probably not considered inspiring or exciting by most, exactly because it can’t deliver life-changing returns in a matter of months/years. Call them naive but I get their point!