Tesla thread [2024]

My understanding is that the recent rise happened as Elon Musk pitched the lower cost car being still on the agenda and now there’s news of the deal in China pointed at by @SwissTeslaBull.

That Elon Musk, as a CEO, reacts when the company or its stock starts to look very bad seems like a normal reaction to me. What I take out of it is that Elon’s narratives are still taken mostly at face value by his investors, which means the basic dynamics affecting the stock haven’t changed meaningfully (in my interpretation).

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Ok so by 2035 it might happen.

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I just can’t wrap my head around it. It simply does not make ANY rational sense and nobody can convince me otherwise.

It‘s essentially a glorified meme stock, far removed from its fundamentals.

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For the purpose of my own assessment, it’s too expensive for valuation metrics to make sense out of it and too volatile and unpredictable to be shorted.

It’s one of those “sit on the sidelines and enjoy the show” stocks. High entertainment value.

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i think that Bojak left the community… and to be honest, I would just leave this topic - not sure what was the point of sticking your finger in someone elses’ wound. Learning consists of making mistakes, the mistakes are important but outsiders shouldn’t poke on them. They are personal.

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What is your reason to underweight US ? I am assuming it’s related to current valuations. I would suggest that you might want to evaluate if you are overvaluing (no pun intended :))your ability of predicting future returns based on current valuation.

I think global passive investors need to believe they cannot outperform the global index in long term. If they do , it’s bonus, if they don’t , it’s a learning.

Disclosure -: I am underweight US because I am overweight some other countries due to home bias. I am not expecting higher returns though. It’s just because I want to be biased

Q3 earnings probably positive

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Is it time to start a thread “should I sell my TSLA shares”?

Just kidding, I don’t have any but also I wouldn’t feel good if I had.

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That old tesla thread is great comedy gold…

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I thought it was fairly well recognized that it’s not a stock that trades on fundamentals but on Musk’s vision/proximity/etc. I’m not sure what is considered offensive about it…

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So are they?

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ouch

well, it’s a stock, what would you expect?
after dropping 50% from all time high, it is still at a p/e of 113 :scream:

(disclaimer: i have no position in TSLA.

Wait - my VT contains 1.24% TSLA - :poop::laughing:)

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Yeah, I won‘t buy Tesla as well; still too expensive and as long as Elon is part of Tesla, nothing will change. Anyways, I think, the trust in Tesla is lost; the sales are falling and falling.

To give credit where credit is due:

Tesla was the first to make cool-ish electric cars, before Tesla other brands’ electric cars were even more dishwashers on wheels than Teslas are. They made them fast (for no real reason) and pleasing to look at. They marketed them to people wearing sandals and clothes made of straw at a semi-reasonable price. Now others have caught up both in terms of design, power, and much improved quality.

They rethought the interiors and overall distribution of spacing, partly because they were not bound by decades-old designs firmly baked in the production line. This is critically important as redesigning structural components of a car and modifying the production process to fit them is extremely hard, so exiting car manufacturers had this drawback while Tesla could start from scratch.

They built the charging infrastructure and can profit from it - I actually think that’s where Tesla’s money will come from.

Elon seem to have gotten bored of Tesla, now he’s on to other things like the US public sector, when that gets boring/exhausted he’ll pick up something else to play with. Maybe space, maybe neuralink, maybe time travel, maybe cloning, maybe robots, maybe My Little Pony, who knows. But he’s clearly bored with Tesla and it shows in their aged line up.


Investment-irrelevant.

Edit: I may personally avoid electric cars but I love them being around, means more dinosaur fat will be available for my motorcycles :smiley:

Edit 2: in many ways the ICE car was “solved” somewhere around 2000, a golden mean between efficiency, safety, reliability and performance was reached.

As a petrolhead I can see how cars got more and more streamlined since then. Now we have multiple brands under big roofs (eg the VW group) making essentially the exact same car with a different badge and slightly modified external shells.

Electric cars, hybrids, hydrogen still have ways to go but they’ve gotten to a point of reaching some consistency and benefits starting to be incremental.

Thankfully motorcycles are ~20 years behind ICE cars in terms of being “solved”, but I see the warning signs of streamlining and consistency. Now we’ve firmly reached a point where standard motorcycles have a lot more “skill” than the average/chill rider like me right off the production line, which allows for great performance with a ton more safety. Petroheads/bikers sound warning bells that modern bikes have become borderline too powerful with way too many safety features which, if they fail, can actually turn dangerous if the rider doesn’t know how to react. Still, thankfully the widowmakers of the 70s and 80s are gone.
Motorcycles are inherently immune to total loss of character because they will always require a minimum level of skill to operate safely, unlike where cars are going.

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TLDR

Before -: Tesla is awesome & Elon was inspirational driving new technologies.

After-: Tesla car is still fine but other companies are doing better , Elon is polarising

Leaving sustainability aside because there might be different ways to reduce Carbon foot print when it comes to transportation . Personally I think countries should think about their end to end supply chain situation to decide what makes sense for them when it comes to EVs. There isn’t much value in moving to EVs and then ending up with complete dependence on raw materials where you cannot be competitive.
It’s clear why China is better off with EVs. It’s not so clear why EU is better off with EVs.

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You’ll need EV to reach net zero goals. (even if you increase public transit massively across Europe).

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I think your comment is assuming there are only three options

Benzene / Diesel / EV

But what if an alternate fuel or technology is developed?

Europe needs to think strategically as well . We cannot keep going after trends without thinking about full supply chain security.

Is it fine, and are they doing better? A narrative I remember reading is that Tesla is a car company priced like a tech company due to hype. That would suggest that that Tesla is not doing fine, and the other companies are not really doing better, it’s just Tesla being repriced to where it “belongs”, partially driven by Elon’s antics, and partially because in essence it IS a car company, with all the points relevant to car companies like upfront and manufacturing costs etc etc

Not an engineer, but the essence of it is we need a light, small, safe and mass-producible way to make stuff rotate. Burning/exploding stuff, or utilizing different polarities in batteries can achieve all of the above. Probably another solution is ways into the future so we can’t even fathom it, but even nuclear power which need very little material to run for decades is still, in essence, making stuff rotate :slight_smile:

@Abs_max going on a wide tangent here as usual, but I remember when they told us about the resonance bridge collapse at school, in physics class 30 years ago, the teacher also said “See how a huge structure obeyed the laws of physics, if we could find a way to control that force, making something huge move with a whistle it would be the future”. That teacher is long dead and will never get to see it, but the message remains, it’s like Master Yoda telling Luke Skywalker that the size of the ship is irrelevant.

I was talking about Tesla as a car company, in the car company ecosystem, doesn’t look like they’re doing fine to me, hence it’s reflected in its stock.

I am not talking about Tesla as an investment.
I am just talking about Tesla as a car. I think it works fine