Elon Musk is very interested in making someone richer, but that someone is not me. And not you either…
4 Likes
Expensive is relative, but recent estimates for optical fiber put the cost at USD 27,000 per mile for the initial laying of an optical fiber line. The estimated maintenance cost is 1% of the initial construction cost per year, so USD 2700 per mile annually.
Estimated costs for cell towers is between $US100,000 and 350,000, depending on materials and labour costs. A US study in 2017 estimated a cost of $US 12.5 billion to cover US roads which are not yet covered by mobile networks, and a maintenance cost of 1.8 billion per year, or around 8.64% of the original construction cost annually.
So in a small, crowded country like Switzerland where you have 211.68 people per square kilometer, the costs of a telecom network are low. But in less-populated countries, the per-person cost of building and maintaining a telecom network is much higher. And in many countries, purchasing power is also much lower than in Switzerland.
According to Starlink, its per-satellite cost is below USD 500,000. I don’t have data on maintenance costs, but looking at those figures, it seems to me that orbital networks could potentially be much cheaper.
2 Likes
One problem I foresee with Starlink is that it is based in the US, an therefore prone to US sanctions. As I see it, the biggest potential market for what Starlink currently offers is in developing countries. The emergence of a strong competitor based in a more neutral country could wipe out Starlink’s biggest potential market for immediate growth.
Good point. I’d also be worried about some of their satellites being ‘demilitarized’. Musk was playing with fire by providing spot beams (or whatever) and free terminals in Ukraine. He tried to back off when his feet got too warm but could still get burnt.
There could still be a way to sneak into Starlink pre-IPO by way of Private Equity with EquityZen. Probably not realistic for retail investors. I would expect SpaceX shareholder to get a preferential offer when it comes to spinning off Starlink.
1 Like
I’d place a bet on Starlink and Neuralink when they IPO only because these outlandish goals are Musk’s vision and he’s unhinged enough to go for them.