# So, I'm ready. Need a bit of guidance for the final steps
**URL:** https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/so-im-ready-need-a-bit-of-guidance-for-the-final-steps/5256
**Category:** Investing / Others
**Created:** [January 15, 2021, 5:45pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/so-im-ready-need-a-bit-of-guidance-for-the-final-steps/5256 "2021-01-15T17:45:46Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 3
### Author:  [@PocketFred](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/PocketFred)
#### Post date: [January 24, 2021, 3:55pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/so-im-ready-need-a-bit-of-guidance-for-the-final-steps/5256/41 "2021-01-24T15:55:53Z")
This was another good “kick” in right direction. I have transferred 10k to my IB account to continue getting the ball rolling and get a grasp of "how to use IB. Waiting for the money to arrive on my account.
Thank you all for your various inputs. I would say I am leaning towards having most of the money in the market asap.
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### Author:  [@Mellow](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Mellow)
#### Post date: [January 25, 2021, 9:19am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/so-im-ready-need-a-bit-of-guidance-for-the-final-steps/5256/42 "2021-01-25T09:19:03Z")
By bear market in 2020, do you mean the the 1-2 month dip in march/april 2020?
Do you personally believe that we have already seen the correction and that the market will keep running its bull trend for many years to come now? Or do you think there is a major correction looming in the near 2021 future?
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### Author:  [@Cortana](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Cortana)
#### Post date: [January 25, 2021, 9:28am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/so-im-ready-need-a-bit-of-guidance-for-the-final-steps/5256/43 "2021-01-25T09:28:40Z")
Bear and bull markets are just human constructs. There are no physical laws here, so everything is possible. Who knows? Maybe we’ll get 1980-2000 returns for the next 20 years?
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### Author:  [@Zerte2](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Zerte2)
#### Post date: [January 25, 2021, 9:43am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/so-im-ready-need-a-bit-of-guidance-for-the-final-steps/5256/44 "2021-01-25T09:43:10Z")
Certainly an important factor is how regular the distribution of money to the population turns in the US (stimmy checks etc.). With the former Fed chair nominated as Secretary of the Treasury, this could facilitate establishing this process in the long run.
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### Author:  [@Mellow](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Mellow)
#### Post date: [January 25, 2021, 9:54am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/so-im-ready-need-a-bit-of-guidance-for-the-final-steps/5256/45 "2021-01-25T09:54:36Z")
So it sounds to me that you find these times very confusing and hard to read as well.
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### Author:  [@Zerte2](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Zerte2)
#### Post date: [January 25, 2021, 12:42pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/so-im-ready-need-a-bit-of-guidance-for-the-final-steps/5256/46 "2021-01-25T12:42:06Z")
Actually it is quite simple: the Fed will rescue the markets at each and every dip. The only unknown is the exact level of the floor, and on which index.
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### Author:  [@user137](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/user137)
#### Post date: [January 25, 2021, 9:05pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/so-im-ready-need-a-bit-of-guidance-for-the-final-steps/5256/47 "2021-01-25T21:05:49Z")
> [@San\_Francisco](#):
>
> There you have it: That would have been your **9-10 years** of enduring **a loss** in your investment (remember that you’d have to pay taxes on dividends). Furthermore, you could have **lost more than 55%** within the first **two years**.
But then he would’ve kept earning and investing those dollars as well - and he would’ve DCA’d the baby jesus out of the market in the next 10 years, coming away with a decent profit altogether.
- You can’t be sure if the next -50% crash comes next week or in 3 yrs or never.
- Jumping in and out of the market is proven to be contraproductive for most “normal people”.
- If you get a crash, just keep investing more to profit from the upside afterwards. The markets are, statistically speaking, more around their ATH point than their lower phases.
Just stay the course and keep investing.
I’m also in a similar situation so I lump summed 60% capital already into it, and am intentionally keeping 40% cash for opportunistic buys along the way (knowing that this is not what the topic suggests, but this is my personal risk appetite right now).
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### Author:  [@Zerte2](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Zerte2)
#### Post date: [January 25, 2021, 9:20pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/so-im-ready-need-a-bit-of-guidance-for-the-final-steps/5256/48 "2021-01-25T21:20:39Z")
> [@user137](#):
>
> The markets are, statistically speaking, more around their ATH point than their lower phases.
Don’t tell that to a Japanese. But, sure, it’s Japan, a special case.
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### Author:  [@user137](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/user137)
#### Post date: [January 25, 2021, 9:22pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/so-im-ready-need-a-bit-of-guidance-for-the-final-steps/5256/49 "2021-01-25T21:22:46Z")
> [@Zerte2](#):
>
> Don’t tell that to a Japanese. But, sure, it’s Japan, a special case.
That’d be a good example if anyone were talking about Japan 😛
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### Author:  [@xorfish](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/xorfish)
#### Post date: [January 25, 2021, 9:48pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/so-im-ready-need-a-bit-of-guidance-for-the-final-steps/5256/50 "2021-01-25T21:48:55Z")
> [@Mellow](#):
>
> So it sounds to me that you find these times very confusing and hard to read as well.
Isn’t that always the case?
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### Author:  [@San\_Francisco](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/San_Francisco)
#### Post date: [January 25, 2021, 11:19pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/so-im-ready-need-a-bit-of-guidance-for-the-final-steps/5256/51 "2021-01-25T23:19:11Z")
> [@Zerte2](#):
>
> Certainly an important factor is how regular the distribution of money to the population turns in the US
I’m not sure if it’s _population_ and the stimulus checks are of great importance.
I am thinking much more relevant could be accessibility of funds for _investors_.
Though there is some overlap, investors aren’t necessarily part of the population - and vice versa.
> [@user137](#):
>
> But then he would’ve kept earning and investing those dollars as well - and he would’ve DCA’d the baby jesus out of the market in the next 10 years
Maybe, maybe not.
Maybe, if he had the income.
I was speaking (only) of the available lump sum at hand.
Personally, I have an investable lump sum that is much higher than what I can earn in a year. I am too lazy to work out the exact figures now, but it’s at least five times my yearly savings potential. (E.g., given that I could save 1000 each month by living frugally, that would make for a savings potential of 12k/year - five times that is an investable sum of 60k).
So to me the question is somewhat relevant, and I’m wary of going all-in.
Especially since I plan to _reduce_ my earnings and savings in the foreseeable future.
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### Author:  [@user137](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/user137)
#### Post date: [January 25, 2021, 11:30pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/so-im-ready-need-a-bit-of-guidance-for-the-final-steps/5256/52 "2021-01-25T23:30:12Z")
> [@San\_Francisco](#):
>
> So to me the question is somewhat relevant, and I’m wary of going all-in.
you’re not alone 🙂 I’m also in the same boat.
I just wanted to pinpoint you that even if you fck up the lump-sum you can emerge “okay”. Not great, not filthy rich, but okay it will be.
If you were sitting on that pile of money in 2015 and didn’t invest on similar fears (market ATH, long upwards trend), you’d be missing 50% profit by now.
Alas, if it’s a considerable amount of money, rational thinking is screwed and we just obey to fear or greed. 😃
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### Author:  [@San\_Francisco](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/San_Francisco)
#### Post date: [January 26, 2021, 12:15am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/so-im-ready-need-a-bit-of-guidance-for-the-final-steps/5256/53 "2021-01-26T00:15:48Z")
> [@user137](#):
>
> If you were sitting on that pile of money in 2015 and didn’t invest on similar fears (market ATH, long upwards trend), you’d be missing 50% profit by now
I have …kind of. But then, I was focused on other things in life up to 2015.
However, I am increasingly getting a feeling that this time might be different™.
Sure, 2015 didn’t go that well fiscally in Europe.
Otherwise the markets might just have felt a bit „expensive“ back then.
Well, that‘s actually what I felt about them back then.
Nowadays though… When looking at Tesla (just having become the 6th largest listed company by market cap in the world), Bitcoin, Gamestop - among many other things - today, I can’t help feeling a similar _irrational exuberance_ creeping in as was 20 years ago.
On the one hand, central banks will surely do lots to „save the economy“ (and stock markets)nd provide nearly unlimited capital for the markets.
On the other hand, p/e multiples are historically high again - and I really don‘t believe they‘ll come down and become „justified“. Rising earnings can’t keep up with that ti justify valuations over the long terms.
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### Author:  [@Zerte2](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Zerte2)
#### Post date: [January 26, 2021, 5:57am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/so-im-ready-need-a-bit-of-guidance-for-the-final-steps/5256/54 "2021-01-26T05:57:10Z")
> [@San\_Francisco](#):
>
> I’m not sure if it’s _population_ and the stimulus checks are of great importance.
> I am thinking much more relevant could be accessibility of funds for _investors_.
>
> Though there is some overlap, investors aren’t necessarily part of the population - and vice versa.
Sure, the regular QE (purchases of Treasuries, MBS, …) is the backbone of the financial markets
but I’ve the impression that the stimmys propagate especially quickly to the stock market, like a sugar rush.
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### Author:  [@Myfirstme](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Myfirstme)
#### Post date: [January 26, 2021, 9:53am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/so-im-ready-need-a-bit-of-guidance-for-the-final-steps/5256/55 "2021-01-26T09:53:56Z")
> [@San\_Francisco](#):
>
> However, I am increasingly getting a feeling that this time might be different™.
That’s what I am worried about. But then again, I have been feeling that for years and I have been wrong for years.
Staying fully invested and dream walk into a massive crash that I feel I have seen coming would be stupid. But this time might not be different or this time might only become different in 10 years and not investing enough and thereby missing FI would be stupid, too.
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### Author:  [@dbu](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/dbu)
#### Post date: [January 26, 2021, 12:02pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/so-im-ready-need-a-bit-of-guidance-for-the-final-steps/5256/56 "2021-01-26T12:02:20Z")
It **is** different every time. (Whatever that “it” is…)
Macro and micro circumstances change.
You cannot know [guess] the future, and the sooner you accept the fact, the better.
Now act according to the fact.
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### Author:  [@San\_Francisco](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/San_Francisco)
#### Post date: [January 26, 2021, 12:06pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/so-im-ready-need-a-bit-of-guidance-for-the-final-steps/5256/57 "2021-01-26T12:06:52Z")
> [@dbu](#):
>
> You cannot guess the future, and the sooner you accept the fact, the better.
Of course I can.
I just might fail to guess it correctly some of the time.
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### Author:  [@dbu](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/dbu)
#### Post date: [January 26, 2021, 12:08pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/so-im-ready-need-a-bit-of-guidance-for-the-final-steps/5256/58 "2021-01-26T12:08:19Z")
Right, “know” was the better word. 🙂
We can all guess and a few might be “right”.
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### Author:  [@PocketFred](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/PocketFred)
#### Post date: [January 26, 2021, 1:10pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/so-im-ready-need-a-bit-of-guidance-for-the-final-steps/5256/59 "2021-01-26T13:10:20Z")
Hi All,
Is there a reason my VT order wasn’t fulfilled yet ?
Did I do something wrong ?
Thanks for your help !
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### Author:  [@Swisslife](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Swisslife)
#### Post date: [January 26, 2021, 1:15pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/so-im-ready-need-a-bit-of-guidance-for-the-final-steps/5256/60 "2021-01-26T13:15:50Z")
If the time indicated in your prtscr is CET, then the US market has been closed between then and now. Your order will be filled in roughly 1h I guess.
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