# Should I buy TSLA shares?
**URL:** https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/should-i-buy-tsla-shares/3836
**Category:** Investing / Portfolios
**Created:** [May 12, 2020, 11:23am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/should-i-buy-tsla-shares/3836 "2020-05-12T11:23:10Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 33
### Author:  [@Bojack](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Bojack)
#### Post date: [January 14, 2021, 4:20pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/should-i-buy-tsla-shares/3836/662 "2021-01-14T16:20:16Z")
Yeah well.
ICE carmakers have constant recalls and problems. Media: meh, who cares.
It happens to Tesla. Media: OH MYY GOOOD!!!
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### Author:  [@glina](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/glina)
#### Post date: [January 14, 2021, 4:30pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/should-i-buy-tsla-shares/3836/663 "2021-01-14T16:30:14Z")
Next time invest in an EV maker which has no products on the market, safer this way.
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### Author:  [@nabalzbhf](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/nabalzbhf)
#### Post date: [January 14, 2021, 4:38pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/should-i-buy-tsla-shares/3836/664 "2021-01-14T16:38:06Z")
Why would the market care? Wasn’t the issue in the media months ago already? [https://www.zdnet.com/article/tesla-touchscreen-problems-these-model-s-and-x-memory-units-are-under-fire-for-failures/](https://www.zdnet.com/article/tesla-touchscreen-problems-these-model-s-and-x-memory-units-are-under-fire-for-failures/)
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### Author:  [@SwissMustachian](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/SwissMustachian)
#### Post date: [January 15, 2021, 5:07pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/should-i-buy-tsla-shares/3836/665 "2021-01-15T17:07:31Z")
Why I don’t view Tesla as a car company, but a collection of many different startups.
Here’s my chart of how I view the Tesla company structure. ([Feel free to copy and adapt](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gGV1bSVXTeMF95qw5tubZNWCRxMc6syFBLANk-YSpCw/))
And here’s my video about it: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XnYQMoc3pvI](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XnYQMoc3pvI)
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### Author:  [@San\_Francisco](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/San_Francisco)
#### Post date: [January 15, 2021, 6:26pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/should-i-buy-tsla-shares/3836/666 "2021-01-15T18:26:26Z")
> [@Alvo](#):
>
> But at the moment valuations seem to be detached from fundamentals, so why shouldn’t it be worth 10k, or 100k per share?
Well, theoretically a stock’s valuation is the sum its future cashflows.
> [@Bojack](#):
>
> It happens to Tesla. Media: OH MYY GOOOD!!!
For good or worse, it did not happen to their engines or transmission. So not to the core components of the car, but rather the fancy electronics they built-in - that could just as well used in any conventional ICE car.
Wait… wasn’t Tesla supposed to be a revolutionary software company though?
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### Author:  [@Bojack](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Bojack)
#### Post date: [January 15, 2021, 6:44pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/should-i-buy-tsla-shares/3836/667 "2021-01-15T18:44:42Z")
> [@San\_Francisco](#):
>
> Wait… wasn’t Tesla supposed to be a revolutionary software company though?
You’re so biased. The issue is related to a piece of hardware in older models. Tesla’s software potential applies to full self driving and the capability to build a large car entertainment platform. Somehow you connect the two.
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### Author:  [@San\_Francisco](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/San_Francisco)
#### Post date: [January 15, 2021, 8:15pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/should-i-buy-tsla-shares/3836/668 "2021-01-15T20:15:38Z")
> [@Bojack](#):
>
> The issue is related to a piece of hardware in older models
Yes and no.
Firstly, it is a well-known fact that [eMMC NAND Flash](https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/inv/2020/INRM-EA20003-11321.pdf) has very limited write cycles (though you can get much better hardware than Tesla if you pay more).
Secondly, the issue has been known for a while. Tesla seems to have greatly exacerbated the issue by writing verbose and (it seems) [superfluous logging data](https://www.heise.de/autos/artikel/Teslas-Flash-Fehlkonstruktion-4563357.html) to these flash cells.
It’s a very common and well-known issue in operating systems running on embedded systems that even I am familiar with, though I don’t work in computer engineering. Simply put: shoddy software.
To reiterate for the less technologically inclined:
- It’s a hardware component where you can go “cheap” or more expensive and higher endurance.
- It’s a hardware component whose time to fail hugely (and well-known) depends on its usage.
- And Tesla’s software did exacerbate the problem by avoidable overuse of that component.
> [@Bojack](#):
>
> Tesla’s software potential applies to full self driving and the capability to build a large car entertainment platform.
How am I supposed to trust their self-driving software and believe in the capabilities of their entertainment system if they fail to design even the very basics of their embedded systems for longevity?
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### Author:  [@SwissTeslaBull](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/SwissTeslaBull)
#### Post date: [January 15, 2021, 8:34pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/should-i-buy-tsla-shares/3836/669 "2021-01-15T20:34:17Z")
@San_Francisco are you shorting TSLA? The level of knowledge against Tesla is impressive
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### Author:  [@nabalzbhf](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/nabalzbhf)
#### Post date: [January 15, 2021, 8:51pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/should-i-buy-tsla-shares/3836/670 "2021-01-15T20:51:21Z")
It was heavily discussed in various tech forums when the issue surfaced in Nov.
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### Author:  [@Bojack](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Bojack)
#### Post date: [January 15, 2021, 9:02pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/should-i-buy-tsla-shares/3836/671 "2021-01-15T21:02:48Z")
Alright, I get what you mean after the explanation. I have to say, it doesn’t look good for Tesla, especially if they’re trying to build long lasting, low maintenance cars.
On the other hand, look at their full self driving hardware. You had HW1, then HW2, now HW3. The Tesla I’m driving will soon get an upgrade to HW3. So maybe they didn’t put so much weight on great hardware components, because electronics go out of date soon and so instead they made their cars upgradeable. I mean, I have not heard about other carmakers replacing some old chips in 5-year old cars. Yet in Model S you can pay to upgrade your infotainment system.
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### Author:  [@MrCheese](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/MrCheese)
#### Post date: [January 15, 2021, 10:53pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/should-i-buy-tsla-shares/3836/672 "2021-01-15T22:53:59Z")
> [@San\_Francisco](#):
>
> they fail to design even the very basics of their embedded systems for longevity?
Oh come on, the issue was simply that some engineer left the log level of some binaries at debug level, stupid human error. Certainly less bad than maliciously building some defeat devices for emission test cycles…
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### Author:  [@San\_Francisco](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/San_Francisco)
#### Post date: [January 16, 2021, 12:31am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/should-i-buy-tsla-shares/3836/673 "2021-01-16T00:31:03Z")
> [@SwissTeslaBull](#):
>
> are you shorting TSLA? The level of knowledge against Tesla is impressive
I wouldn’t dare shorting TSLA (…I think?). 😉
That’s like arguing with unreasonable people.
As regards the knowledge, I had read about the NAND Flash issue here on this thread - I have installed and am running NAND-Flash based computing devices myself (though not in any professional capacity).
> [@MrCheese](#):
>
> the issue was simply that some engineer left the log level of some binaries at debug level, stupid human error
Most probably. So where _else_ did they leave something out (or on), due to stupid human error, only to impact their customers a few years later? With self-driving systems, that stupid human error could (literally) turn into a life-and-death situation.
I think I have been saying this earlier: It may be an innovative car - yet from all the reviews and news, it just looks (and reads) hurriedly put together.
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### Author:  [@Cortana](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Cortana)
#### Post date: [January 16, 2021, 6:57am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/should-i-buy-tsla-shares/3836/674 "2021-01-16T06:57:18Z")
> [@Cortana](#):
>
> I wouldn’t be surprised about Tesla getting to 1T+ market cap within the next 10 years. But dogma is telling me to stay away from individual stocks.
When Tesla was at 155 billion market cap, 8 months ago lol.
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### Author:  [@Bojack](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Bojack)
#### Post date: [January 16, 2021, 7:12am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/should-i-buy-tsla-shares/3836/675 "2021-01-16T07:12:32Z")
Do us a favor and update your best guess prediction for 2025/2030. Let’s have something to laugh about in 12 months 😉
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### Author:  [@Cortana](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Cortana)
#### Post date: [January 16, 2021, 8:02am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/should-i-buy-tsla-shares/3836/676 "2021-01-16T08:02:13Z")
At this point I wouldn’t be surprised if they get to 10T+ market cap within the next 10 years lol.
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### Author:  [@Bojack](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Bojack)
#### Post date: [January 16, 2021, 8:49am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/should-i-buy-tsla-shares/3836/677 "2021-01-16T08:49:46Z")
So I guess based on your track record we should expect that within 12 months Tesla will go bankrupt 😃
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### Author:  [@xorfish](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/xorfish)
#### Post date: [January 16, 2021, 9:10am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/should-i-buy-tsla-shares/3836/678 "2021-01-16T09:10:37Z")
I wouldn’t be surprised if it is 200 Billion in 2030.
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### Author:  [@SwissTeslaBull](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/SwissTeslaBull)
#### Post date: [January 16, 2021, 9:58am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/should-i-buy-tsla-shares/3836/679 "2021-01-16T09:58:58Z")
At least 1T end of 2021
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### Author:  [@Bojack](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Bojack)
#### Post date: [January 19, 2021, 10:16pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/should-i-buy-tsla-shares/3836/680 "2021-01-19T22:16:45Z")
[ ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M2yvsmDvxvA)
I urge everybody to watch this video (especially @San_Francisco ). Wind, Solar & Batteries are getting exponentially cheaper, and will continue this trend until 2030. We will end up in a World with 3-5x power capacity of today, but at a lower cost than today. Can you just imagine the implications? I used to think that maybe nuclear power makes sense, but if this trend continues, then we won’t need to care about nuclear. Think about all the existing energy & tech that will find itself in a negative feedback loop. I think many people still can’t see this.
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### Author:  [@Bojack](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Bojack)
#### Post date: [January 22, 2021, 4:23pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/should-i-buy-tsla-shares/3836/681 "2021-01-22T16:23:55Z")
21 posts were split to a new topic: [Nuclear Fission: good or bad](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/nuclear-fission-good-or-bad/5352)
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