# Should I buy TSLA shares?
**URL:** https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/should-i-buy-tsla-shares/3836
**Category:** Investing / Portfolios
**Created:** [May 12, 2020, 11:23am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/should-i-buy-tsla-shares/3836 "2020-05-12T11:23:10Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 14
### Author:  [@Bojack](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Bojack)
#### Post date: [July 29, 2020, 8:57pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/should-i-buy-tsla-shares/3836/271 "2020-07-29T20:57:43Z")
> [@marcel-burkhard](#):
>
> it’s not really a vehicle to save taxes unless you expect decreasing revenues, right?
Correct, but a FIRE person is exactly such a case. You give it all you got and then you take it easy, once you’ve reached your goal.
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### Author:  [@Grog](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Grog)
#### Post date: [July 30, 2020, 6:41am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/should-i-buy-tsla-shares/3836/272 "2020-07-30T06:41:24Z")
Bojack out of curiosity isn’t a bit disingenuous to equal revenue with demand? They did introduce leasing progressively,so while revenue may get lower (because of leasing) demand can stay strong, right?
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### Author:  [@Bojack](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Bojack)
#### Post date: [July 30, 2020, 7:50am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/should-i-buy-tsla-shares/3836/274 "2020-07-30T07:50:25Z")
Interesting point, I don’t know. But would it not only be a concern if leasing was introduced only recently? Or if we saw a spike in leasing contracts and a drop in sales? Also, is Tesla itself the lessor? Or is there a bank in between that pays Tesla the full amount up front and handles the payments?
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### Author:  [@Dago](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Dago)
#### Post date: [July 30, 2020, 3:11pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/should-i-buy-tsla-shares/3836/275 "2020-07-30T15:11:29Z")
Next quarter should be better: [https://www.businessinsider.fr/us/tesla-received-government-coronavirus-bailout-elon-musk-stimulus-relief-criticism-2020-7](https://www.businessinsider.fr/us/tesla-received-government-coronavirus-bailout-elon-musk-stimulus-relief-criticism-2020-7)
😉
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### Author:  [@Julianek](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Julianek)
#### Post date: [August 10, 2020, 5:11pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/should-i-buy-tsla-shares/3836/276 "2020-08-10T17:11:39Z")
I just came across a very well documented report gathering all the suspicions about TSLA:
> **[tsla.pdf](https://www.plainsite.org/realitycheck/tsla.pdf)**
>
> 15.70 MB
Among other topics, the author talks about:
- the scandal of Solar City and why Musk bought the company in order to avoid the collapse of his card castle
- Musk’s false claims about self driving abilities of TSLA, and the various ongoing litigations on the matter following the various accidents due to these claims
- Product quality problems, such as spontaneous fires, wrong vehicle identification numbers, sudden unintended acceleration and so on.
- How the various TSLA whistleblowers were harassed
- Accounting fraud suspicions, such as:
- incoherent cash balances
- account receivables way too high (as mentioned above)
- not paying vendors to keep cash
- the report debunks Cathie Wood, and how she got rid of half its position while still pumping the stock up on the television
- in the same vein, it explains how one of the pro-eminent analysts of the stock, Adam Jonas, updated its target price up while telling his clients that TSLA had transformed “from a growth story to a distress credit and restructuring story.”
- the list of 200+ executives who left the company between 2017 and 2019, **including 2 CFO and 2 Chief Accounting Officers, 3 general counsel (i.e head of legal department)** and 1 CTO .
- and my favourite: **how TSLA does not talk about sales but “deliveries”, without defining the term, which allows the company to deliver cars to itself, as is the case in Norway.**
If you have some time, it is really worth reading the report, if for no other idea of making your own opinion. Of course, counter-arguments are welcome!
Between the various suspicions of fraud and the failure of accounting numbers to sustain the narrative, i wonder how long the stock can manage to stay at such elevated levels…
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### Author:  [@Bojack](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Bojack)
#### Post date: [August 10, 2020, 7:29pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/should-i-buy-tsla-shares/3836/277 "2020-08-10T19:29:29Z")
100 pages, that’s a long read. I mean, the report looks interesting, it has photos and charts. You really read it all? Are these things that you point out all recent? I could understand if they cut corners in the past. After all, they are the first new car manufacturer in a long time.
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### Author:  [@San\_Francisco](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/San_Francisco)
#### Post date: [August 10, 2020, 7:50pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/should-i-buy-tsla-shares/3836/278 "2020-08-10T19:50:55Z")
[Tesla has lost its top lawyer for the third time in the past year](https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-loses-third-general-counsel-in-past-year-report-2019-12)
> [@Bojack](#):
>
> I mean, the report looks interesting, it has photos and charts. You really read it all?
There’s lots of hyperbole (“multi billion dollar fraud”, right on the third page).
However, it does make some plausible claims and tries to back them up with sources.
> [@Bojack](#):
>
> After all, they are the first new car manufacturer in a long time
Nikola, Fisker, Lucid, Nio, Byton, Rivian…
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### Author:  [@Bojack](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Bojack)
#### Post date: [August 10, 2020, 7:54pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/should-i-buy-tsla-shares/3836/279 "2020-08-10T19:54:11Z")
> [@San\_Francisco](#):
>
> Nikola, Fisker, Lucid, Nio, Byton, Rivian…
LOL. First one that has actually produced a car. You should check out the red flags about Nikola, their CEO is full of shit.
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### Author:  [@San\_Francisco](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/San_Francisco)
#### Post date: [August 10, 2020, 7:58pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/should-i-buy-tsla-shares/3836/280 "2020-08-10T19:58:07Z")
> [@Bojack](#):
>
> You should check out the red flags about Nikola, their CEO is full of shit.
So is Musk?! 🤷🏻♂️
I’m sure there had been new car manufacturers that “actually produced” cards shortly before Tesla. Just as there have been ones that did a bit later (Fisker was definitely not bogus, even though they had to fold a bit later).
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### Author:  [@marcel-burkhard](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/marcel-burkhard)
#### Post date: [August 10, 2020, 8:18pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/should-i-buy-tsla-shares/3836/281 "2020-08-10T20:18:46Z")
I would much rather have TSLA shares than NKLA. That being said at these prices I’m getting neither.
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### Author:  [@Bojack](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Bojack)
#### Post date: [August 10, 2020, 8:31pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/should-i-buy-tsla-shares/3836/282 "2020-08-10T20:31:24Z")
You mentioned some car companies that either failed or exist only in a powerpoint presentation. When was the last time that a company was founded that reached at least the scale of Tesla?
Btw I started reading this paper. It is written in a very preconceived way. It reads like a typical TSLAQ story. Everything that can, is put in a negative light. I’m sure you could make similar stories about Bill Gates or Steve Jobs.
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### Author:  [@San\_Francisco](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/San_Francisco)
#### Post date: [August 10, 2020, 8:40pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/should-i-buy-tsla-shares/3836/283 "2020-08-10T20:40:59Z")
> [@Bojack](#):
>
> You mentioned some car companies that either failed or exist only in a powerpoint presentation
At least the original [Fisker](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fisker_Automotive) seems to have delivered and sold a four-figure number of cards though. Nowhere as many as Tesla before they failed.
But failing?
So might Tesla.
> [@Bojack](#):
>
> When was the last time that a company was founded that reached at least the scale of Tesla?
To be honest, that’s a very specific question. And I’m honestly not even into cars.
> [@Bojack](#):
>
> It is written in a very preconceived way
Admittedly, I concur. But…
> [@Bojack](#):
>
> It is written in a very preconceived way. It reads like a typical TSLAQ story. Everything that can, is put in a negative light. I’m sure you could make similar stories about Bill Gates or Steve Jobs.
When was the last time Microsoft or Apple had that level of leadership fluctuation at the very top?
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### Author:  [@Bojack](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Bojack)
#### Post date: [August 10, 2020, 8:45pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/should-i-buy-tsla-shares/3836/284 "2020-08-10T20:45:41Z")
> [@San\_Francisco](#):
>
> When was the last time Microsoft or Apple had that level of leadership fluctuation at the very top?
Let’s see… Musk would have to be outed from Tesla, start another company, and then be welcomed back in glory after a few years. Then he would have relived the “fluctuation” that Jobs went through…
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### Author:  [@San\_Francisco](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/San_Francisco)
#### Post date: [August 10, 2020, 8:47pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/should-i-buy-tsla-shares/3836/285 "2020-08-10T20:47:23Z")
> [@Bojack](#):
>
> Musk would have to be outed from Tesla, start another company, and then be welcomed back in glory after a few years. Then he would have relived the “fluctuation” that Jobs went through
Yep - but the point wasn’t so much about Musk personally.
Rather than about Microsoft and Apple, the companies themselves.
After all, you own stocks in Apple, Microsoft or Tesla - not in Elon Musk or Bill Gates.
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### Author:  [@brice](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/brice)
#### Post date: [August 10, 2020, 9:21pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/should-i-buy-tsla-shares/3836/286 "2020-08-10T21:21:00Z")
> [@Bojack](#):
>
> That’s why I dig the camera approach. Humans have two cameras and a solid non-artificial intelligence unit and that’s enough. Why should the AI need a different input?
It’s more a question of what’s optimal. Our eyes didn’t evolve over millenia in a context where there was a strong selective pressure favoring the best car drivers. And even if they had, planes don’t really fly the way birds do. AlphaStar does use computer vision but that’s as an extra challenge, not because it’s better.
About LIDAR specifically I can’t speak much on wether it’s the best tech at the time of writing but it seems plausible. Google does have strong AI capabilities (think: Google translate, Live View, Google Assistant…) and yet they chose Lidar for Waymo.
Finally, I don’t get the reasoning that using LIDAR means being stuck with it. It should be the opposite: using LIDAR provides high precision distance information that can be used to train other systems.
Now, I wonder how do I short a stock on IBKR 😛
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### Author:  [@Bojack](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Bojack)
#### Post date: [August 11, 2020, 5:02am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/should-i-buy-tsla-shares/3836/287 "2020-08-11T05:02:31Z")
I just saw this and felt guilty 😅
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### Author:  [@glina](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/glina)
#### Post date: [August 11, 2020, 12:29pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/should-i-buy-tsla-shares/3836/288 "2020-08-11T12:29:59Z")
As much as I don’t want to hijack the thread (no, not really :-)), NIO results are out:
[https://seekingalpha.com/news/3603983-nioplus-9\_7-on-record-high-quarterly-deliveries](https://seekingalpha.com/news/3603983-nioplus-9_7-on-record-high-quarterly-deliveries)
similarily as with TSLA number, the Chinese EV growth story is real.
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### Author:  [@rolandinho](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/rolandinho)
#### Post date: [August 11, 2020, 1:10pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/should-i-buy-tsla-shares/3836/289 "2020-08-11T13:10:48Z")
> [@glina](#):
>
> similarily as with TSLA number, the Chinese EV growth story is real.
> [@Julianek](#):
>
> ## The growth story in one chart
>
> Page 35, TSLA gives a breakdown of its sales by region:
>
> 
>
> In other words, except China, the rest of the world was not really eager to buy their cars. So much for incredible demand.
I believe it’s a latest quarterly revenue of about $500M for Nio, so in China they are about where Tesla was a year ago. Impressive.
Not insignificant is the -50% slump in deliveries in 2020Q1 from 2019Q4, and thus surely a fair share of deferred deliveries from 2020Q1 in Q2 though, as Covid peaked in China in Q1.
Compared to 2019Q4 quarterly deliveries in 2020Q2 are “only” up about 25%, and if one includes a 1000 or 2000 deferred deliveries, growth is, well, less and less impressive, especially when compared to the growth in Nio’s stock price at the same time.
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### Author:  [@glina](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/glina)
#### Post date: [August 11, 2020, 1:28pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/should-i-buy-tsla-shares/3836/290 "2020-08-11T13:28:52Z")
The growth is 146% Y/Y not only Q/Q. The margin improvements and guidance are the goodies here. Delivery numbers were known before.
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### Author:  [@glina](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/glina)
#### Post date: [August 11, 2020, 1:45pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/should-i-buy-tsla-shares/3836/291 "2020-08-11T13:45:36Z")
Look who just bought 1.4M of NIO shares (tl/dr: all of us)
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