If, by any chance, you’ve expressed your May 14 hypothesis in any trades, please let us know?
I, for one, would be curious.
If, for a lack of cash, you have not expressed your market views in any trades, you can still let us know what trades you would engage in if you had any cash given the conviction of your views?
I don’t care for the month. I don’t care for an orange elephant in the porcellan shop. I just trade what I see.
I sell when I have to sell according to my strategies. But I have a bear market protocol active that forbids me to buy. Since almost one month. Next week will be a turning point for me and a newbie: if the market gets to 95% of its last high I will resume normal operation.
It helps a lot if you just know in advance what you gonna do. Because if the moment is here and you have to decide it is always in a rush… and probably bad.
It could be a sucker rallye or it could be the end of the Dollar. I have absolutely no idea. But I don’t need to have an idea. Who claims to have an idea probably has a cristal ball which tells the future. I don’t have one.
I do the reverse, I get squishy buying around ATHs
The technical bulls seem to be out in force:
Tactical Asset Allocation or speculation in my view just does not work. Therefore, I do not act upon my beliefs. The only thing I do is the intellectual challenge (to occupy my mind) and by doing so I satisfy my need „to do simething“, so that it allows me to actually do nothing at all.
If I wanted to trade, I would by mid May probably sell a few Call Options on Indices, this with a strike of X + 5% and a term of 9-12 Months. But this in a strong currency, not in USD. But as said, I will not act upon my views.
Most people that claim that speculation or tactical asset allocation worked either have no clue how to calculate a performance propperely, how to benchmark what they do against the beta they are taking, or they don‘t understand statistics and probabilities of luck.
Back when I wrote it first (one week ago?), there was a perfect combination of how long I expect the dead cat bounce to continue (Personal experience), some trend data where I expected the market (if continuing its short term trend) to hit an upper end of a mid term trend channel, and the psychological impact of emptying shelfes in the us plus the focus slowly getting back to „we passed 50% of the 90 days suspension, but nothing much happened yet“.
At the Moment, I no longer see the same trend picture nor can‘t reproduce it, but the other factors remain where the are - momentum of the dead cat bounce, empty shelfes, 50% of the 90 days period.
Lets see, i think that may will be popcorn time… but amidst all these conversations, please remember to NOT act based on any of these speculations.
I revise my view of 14 May beeing the end of the bull trap. I think that the market will flip again already starting from Monday meaning - its time to „sell in May“ m, if you feel like that.
Source: Gut Feel
Double flip/revision meaning going back to original thesis that another leg down is coming is what you mean?
Why?
To add the predic(k?)tions of my favoured e-Waver*-
*also known as the chart science that has been found to have little to no predictive value, but makes up for that with rules flexible enough to fit any chart history, making it appear like the most recent move was blatantly obvious. It is somewhat intellectually pleasing though. To be fair, you are likely better off with the gut feel 