I do this all the time, I even have some debt in CHF to buy stocks in USD for the lower interest.
Why the hell did you use a consumer credit? I mean, OK, if you go for a O’ Hare play that may be OK but then you probably would bet on futures with the credit to get more leverage.
If you use the stocks you buy as collateral, called a margin loan, you will get way lower interest and you cannot go bankrupt in a hefty bust, because of margin calls and sells.
This is probably the least sensible aproach I have seen here this year. No offence, but think twice what you are doing.
If you wamt to invest with leverage (your choice), you MUST do so at the smallest possible credit interest. Leveraged ETF generall beat Mortgages (but different currency), and mortgages alwaya beat cnsumer credits. For god sake, buy a leveraged etf, take on a mortgage, a trading credit… whatever but DO NOT take out a consumer credit.
I’ll give it to you straight: For everyone that knows what they are talking about, you display severe Dunning-Kruger.
If you don’t manage to educate yourself, this will blow up in your face sooner or later.
Most people here, wealthy or not, mean you well, else they would encourage your folly to see you fail.
Debt is a useful but dangerous tool in investing. You can easily gamble away any chance of ever having more than the absolute minimum.
For something practical:
First the high interest rate debt needs to go. Be happy you didn’t destroy your financial future and move on.
Earning more and spending less is the only real lever you have. You need a good savings rate. I spend less than 2500 CHF per month, you can find a job that pays 4000 and save 500 each month. That leaves 1000 CHF per month in frivolous spending.
If you do have a savings rate, you can think about leverage. Even medium to high leverage that is a bit inefficient (LETFs, LEAPS) but has no catastrophic failure. For you can rebalance with your human capital interest (your savings rate).
When your capital much exeeds your savings rate, you need better strategies that don’t depend on your human capital.
Edit: I read your post again. You are going to buy a home. That means you have some money lying around. Please do yourself a favor and start reading to prevent having to restart at zero or below.
Actually if you look at the huge proportions of such loans that go default (number of registered cases in switzerland) you have to go higher than 4-5% if you just want to break even … I remember doing the calculation onces, the data of default cases are available online but i don’t have the result anymore …
That said, such loans are - all risks accounted - not so expensive…
I have decent revenue that’s what allows me to pay the principal monthly … if you consider selling your assets monthly to pay back your loan it’s not worth it. If your revenue can cover the monthly payment and you invested all the principal in one go the valuation and dividends roll over it.
See if you can do the calculation with a “linear amortiszation table” banks use it but they won’t provide it to you now …
You’ll see how a loan of let’s say 60k at 5.9% costs you something like 9430.81 CHF over 5 years where 60k invested at the same 5.9% bring back 19.9k over the same period which results in net benefits of 10’484.7 CHF
The third case is investing 1’157.18 CHF monthly for 60 months at 5.9% which (according to moneyland) would pay 10’803.15 CHF (better and safer yes) but my hypothesis was having a growth higher than 5.9% and it that cases it would be worth it ! I can provide a linear depreciation table if you want … as well there are tutorials on how to do them on excel.
@cubanpete_the_swiss we already answered that point, I aim to take lombard credit when my consumer loan is low enough to be reimbursed exclusively with lombard credit. Currently IKBR allows me to take something like 30% of my equity in lombard credit before margin call … therefore I still need to wait 1 year or so…
@TeaGhost o.k boomer - as said not an option did not inherit any wealth, no mortgage available, thanks. Leveraged ETF would increase the risk and only constitute a small part of my portfolio.
@Helix I’m a financial management graduate and frugalist and I can easily save 2k monthly (I set my minimum at 1.7k in automatic payments)
You all are assuming that all of my wealth comes from this loan and not assuming it was “overcolateralized” having a debt/equity ratio below 1 … somehwere around 0.33, and that the whole debt is guaranteed by both my assets and my income.
Crazy part is you read that my mortgage is maxed out and that I’m buying a flat but you forget to consider that banks do take into consideration consumers credit and leverage before lending to someone which should answer your worries … right ? Also thanks for assuming i’m unneducated. I did not take a consumer credit to spend it on women and obscur cryptocurrencies jeez… I also said that it’s mostly in VEVE and IUSC which are not really a definition of risky …
@nabalzbhf Enjoy your popcorn I can’t understand the heat
Check if you can apply for portfolio margin. There it is more like 800% (max). But you need at least $110k.
I would never use that much leverage and I control the margin myself. But that way I have more than enough reserve to adhere to my money management rules of all my strategies.
Those are great actually but extra volatile… I you look the wisdomthree silver x3 it’s not worth it compared to standard silver. If your talking about UPRO and TQQQ those are great but not crisis resilient. Hence not very indicated for a loan based portfolio. Yet I tend to use them when the market dips…
I unfortunately do not have 110k on IBKR but I can’t wait to reach that amount … before I was spread out into e-toro (just because it’s the first once I used please no heat), IBKR and P2P lendings like mintos.
I will concentrate that on IKBR as you have this “stocks yield enhancement program” and decent margin available, sounds wise.
The stocks yield enhancement program does not produce much, a few dollars a year of income.
But it may get you free money from the tax lady, because the tax offices still did not add the situation of lent out stocks to their software. For non-US stocks the dividends are free of tax and the automated software of the tax office still pays you back. I did mention that in every tax declaration for the last 5 years, but they ignore it. Their loss…
The taxman/lady is a funny buddy. They go after you for a few Francs and then insist on gifts that may sum up to billions with this kind of Cum-Ex situation…
Yeah. Considering the alternative, the risk-reward profile of their approach remains unconvincing. Same for counting on more than 5.9% annualized on an investment time horizon of 5 years only. Makes you wonder about that financial manager education and their job security in all of this.
There are a multitude of tools beating a consumer loan at 1.33x.
So, if you are no troll (which find us from time to time), you don’t know what you are doing. Please swallow your pride, and profit from our knowledge.
First : you are doing a reasoning mistake assuming the investment will be closed after 5 years, no, the debt will be, not the investment.
Second : Today SPI is at 17’850.53 CHF (Vf), 5 years ago it was at 12’924.5 CHF (Vi)
The annualised growth rate is calculated as follows Vf = Vi * (1+r)^t where r is the rate, t is time period in years (5)
To find the actual growth rate you have to reverse the equation wich will results in r = (Vf/Vi)^(1/t) - 1
With the previous informations that gives as result of 6.67% over the last five years.
It is not the best performing index one can find better and we all agree that annualised growth rate of SP500 and NSDQ are slightly higher currency and inflation accounted right ?
Then if in 5 years the market dip I can just hold the position for another 6 months … correct ?
I think I understand now. You did take a consumer credit to start investing in stocks and that gives more risk and more performance expectation than not doing so.
I assume you pay the consumer credit with your salary and are not in need of dividends or capital gains to pay it back, right?
You did choose a consumer credit because you have too little money to get a cheaper credit. As always, banks only lend you money if you don’t need it…
You did make this decision at a time that was almost ideal for it. Anyhow, as many said so here, the worst that can happen to a gambler is to win. But I don’t see you as a gambler. You are a speculator and I am too!
Just some tips for using leverage: you have to be contrarian. Right now the margin credits are at all time highs. That is when my margin credit is low. There will be booms and busts and after a bust the margin credits will go down and down. That is the moment you buy on credit.
I described one method of doing so in the “crash recovery part” of my dividend strategy, maybe it is of interest to you. I probably made most of my money in such situations…
In my other mechanical strategy I always use a margin loan. It is checked every day and this check may result in sales. I think I described the money management of this strategy here:
A few posts later there is the exact formula I use. Note that this strategy starts at 150% margin and goes up to 300%. But then unrealized gains are not included in those calculations, so the actual margin multiple is much lower. Made me around 28% CAGR per year for the last 6 years.
I think you have a high risk tolerance and that is very good, you can go for higher performance. Don’t let randomness fool you, the market went up a lot the last years and they can go down a lot.
I notice you seem to be focusing primarily on the reward side. Extrapolating the returns of the last five years into the future and relying on it is risky. What are the chances of corrections within 10 years and that it’s over in 6 months? There is a probability you cannot refinance in 5 years and do not have a well paying job. I remain unconvinced of the risk adjusted advantages of your approach.
Oui monsieur ! You understood perfectly. At the time consumer credit rates were quite low and market was decently priced. As well, as an extra security I made sure to be able in case I would loose my job (70% income left for 2 years).
I would also say it’s quite good to be a contrarian when using margin and I tend to close it when markets are quite high … with this case tough I just close it … monthly… I’ll make sure to check your well documented topics !
Adding risk when people are cutting risk is wiser as it sounds, buying when people are selling contributes to stabilize the market fluctuations.
I see where the confusion comes from … you are assuming I may need to refinance that loan eventually ? It’s not an “interest only loan” so I’m each month repaying some of my principal with my salary and should pay all of it in 6 years (principal and interest) that means there is no need to refinance it at any point…
So in case of a correction or a financial crisis … what ? I will just hold it through and keep paying my monthly invoices.
Your investment calculation was for 5 years. The calculation changes if you invest now the lump sum of your loan and the market craters vs. investing steadily. There is also a correlation between bad markets and job losses. You might be forced (for whatever reason) in some months to take a job that pays less than 70% or you become sick and are not covered for 2 years.
Note that cubanpete seems not to depend on job income for his strategies and that he is well capitalized. Be aware of the differences.
It might prove useful for you to list here all the risks you recognize that might befall your investment calculation to evaluate the risk adjusted merit realistically.
Just to quote the good old Kostolany: he who has much money may speculate, he who has little money may not speculate, but he who has no money must speculate…
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