The financial markets have become a giant game of speculative rotations (AI stocks, metals, crypto, etc..). A relatively small groups of speculators now have an amplified impact on markets due to passive flows and algos.
BTC is just one asset in this game that isn’t going away. I believe It will be back on the menu before the end of the year for no particular good reasons other than speculators driving flows are back in.
Tesla bought in January 2021 at ca. 38k USD. They have not sold at 16k USD in 2022.
Unfortunately with all that derivatives the number of bitcoins is not limited to the existing ones. As with gold or worse with silver, where there are estimated 400 ounces of paper silver for every ounce of real silver. The CME bitcoin February future alone has an open interest of 25’000, around 75’000 bitcoin and there are other futures, options, ETF and so on. If banks start to give credits in Bitcoin the number will even get much higher.
The money supply is only limited on level 1 (central bank level), for the rest it is just like any other FIAT currency.
They might not need to write off but I think a lot of new companies started adding BTC to their balance sheet later. But anyhow let’s see how it goes. Looks like the price stabilised around 65-70 K
Is this the beginning of the end for BTC or just the usual ‘once very 3-4-5 year’ crypto-winter?
Curious what the evangelists and naysayers think!
what’s the use case again ?
Relive Tulipmania
Time to start accumulating again 
Sold all my crypto with a loss on April 27th.
The news and sentiment are so negative, looks like there will be a final sell off in the coming month and then the bottom is in…
No need to explain over and over the case here. I guess people will not agree on fundamentals for BTC.
More interesting is market participant positioning with professionals who are less constraint…
According to the UBS Global Family Office Report, roughly 24% of family offices hold cryptocurrency, typically making up about 1% to 3% of their total assets.
The crypto mainly is BTC in this case.
Of course it remains a speculative asset, but Risk factors are different than for stocks and bonds, which makes it an interesting diversified for me.
Prepare for sustained underperformance, as long as compute resources and capex are (re)allocated to AI applications instead of crypto.
Why? Majority of bitcoins have been mined and they dont need more computing power?
Arent we at or near the point where new mining < bitcoin loss rate?
For a completely separate asset class, 1 to 3% is quite low. To me, that’s more of a negative sign than a positive one. In other words: Not even family offices have the confidence to invest in BTC.
Same FUD every couple of years…
FUD? I’m not familiar with that abbreviation or is it f’d up discussion?
Just saying every couple of years the same discussions arise ( with Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt on Bitcoin). I’m not against discussions, but nothing new compared to the prior years of BTC crash.
Depends on the market cap and depth.
Compared to gold portfolio allocations and market cap, BTC allocation seems rather high to me.
Are you adding to BTC now or have you mean reducing or both?
compared to the crazy developpment BTC has had over the past few years…
yep, I have not stopped adding to BTC. Every month the same amount with the paycheck… and lately even more on harder drops. I will not make the same mistake from several years back as I tried to time the market.
Several months back or last year I just reduced from 100% of what’s monthly to invest to 85% BTC, and adding some Swiss shares, some gold and some cash CHF.