New Vanguard World funds with 0.07% TER VGLA / VALL

[Wolverine]

If the bet is tech and AI in particular will outperform, with the open question of if AGI gets cracked by US companies:

1. Here’s the dotcom boom and bust with simulated versions of VEA, SPY and QQQ equivalents:
   

   
   
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   QQQSIM outperformed from 1990 to 2005 but what happens if you jump on the plane after take off?
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   VEASIM outperformed both SPYSIM and QQQSIM from 1999 to 2005.
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   And if you invested at the very top:
   
   
   
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   Same.
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   QQQSIM took an 80%+ hit, SPYSIM and VEASIM a roughly 50% one.
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   I’m not saying it will happen but it is a possibility. The Nasdaq100 may outperform in the future or it may crash harder than the rest of the market. If it does, we may be looking at a very big hit, then a long time of underperformance before it catches up again, if it does. The investors who can ride that, if the NASDAQ100 is still the winning bet, will be rewarded but those who can’t stay put during the drought years and will start thinking that the recent past performance of the NASDAQ100 is lackluster and why not invest in VALL instead will take the losses and miss the gains. You can be sure there’ll be a lot of “VALL is the better option” going around, potentially rubbing salt on an open wound for people who may still be sore about taking a bigger hit and then going more flat, on this board at least.

2. What if it’s not an American company but, say, a Chinese one that cracks AGI? Why not make a global tech play with a thematic fund?

3. What if they don’t crack AGI at all? The AI spitches sound to me like marketing material instead of a realistic view of what can indeed happen. My understanding is that the AI sphere first thought that there was a direct relationship between more compute and discovering AGI, then went hard on it, then hit a wall and discovered that presumed law didn’t apply past a certain threshold and are now stuck with gigantic debts, no real hope of hitting AGI at all and a still positive narrative. They’re milking the narrative but may have a very hard time reaching profitability (my bet is they won’t).

I suggest listening to Ed Zitron for a contrarian view on AI enthusiasm:

Is the AI Boom About to COLLAPSE?