Leveraged ETFs, Leveraged Portfolios

If you’re doing daily rebalancing, it’s going to be a bit of work for a buy/hold portfolio, it can be automated but at this point why not use something like futures? (that you also need to rollover and keep cash aside)

(and I think you’d also need to have your cash invested at the risk free rate, so not just sitting as cash at IB)

edit: SPYQ is probably a better idea if done with ETFs, it rebalances quarterly (but TER is fairly high)

You could use UPRO to aim for 1.2x leverage and rebalance between 1.1-1.3x.

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The daily rebalancing was just an example to illustrate my point.

Something like UPRO can be used to get simple leverage in your portfolio.

Another example:

You want to slightly lever a mcw world portfolio to 120%.

100% could be 60/40 VTI/VXUS

120% you could do with 10/52/48 UPRO/VTI/VXUS

You don‘t need to daily rebalance (and you shouldnt due to cost), to get close to what you want to achieve.

I agree though futures are better, because they are cheaper, but also a huge headache.

But if you hold UPRO is a volatile environment then it’s just adding a drag to the portfolio because of how it’s structured

Maybe better to take a margin loan and then buy more VTI

Maybe same effect, but completely different feeling.

If anyone buying these is aware of this fact then they should manage expectations, but this doesn’t mean they can’t be held long term.

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Again depending how you structure your portfolio and how you rebalance it.

The 50/50 SSO/Cash example was to show that

1/3 UPRO + 2/3 cash rebalanced daily, match VOO unlevered basically perfectly.

(adjusted for cost of financing/TER, that create a drag)
https://testfol.io/?s=dYN5F6AOqbF

This route can make more sense. But what happens if you dont rebalance (and thus selling on the way down, just like the daily levered funds do) to match your desired leverage is, that the leverage goes higher and higher the more it goes into drawdown. This then increases your risk and you are betting on mean reversion there. Which you can do (it worked in the past), but you need to be aware of that and most people aren’t. You are actively letting the leverage ratio drift higher.

Also another problem with a margin loan is the high financing cost (benchmark +1.5%), and if you deduct this from taxes, you’ll have a lower DA-1 return, as that offsets it (super weird ruling on that in my opinion).

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You could also use VTI LEAPS, probably cheaper than UPRO and don’t suffer from volatility.

Seems like Amundi is launching a World LETF soon

https://www.reddit.com/r/LETFs/comments/1mzsdjb/finally_the_holy_grail_of_letf_is_incoming_amundi/

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I hate it. The herd usually invests on margin just before the top.

Key Trends and Context

  • New Record High: This figure represents a new all-time record, surpassing the previous record set in June 2025, when margin debt first crossed the $1 trillion mark.
  • Rapid Growth: The amount of margin debt has been on a sharp upward trajectory over the past year, increasing significantly from the low it reached in late 2022.
  • Correlation with Market Performance: Margin debt levels are often considered a measure of investor sentiment and leverage. They tend to rise when the market is performing well, as investors become more confident and borrow to increase their exposure to stocks. Historically, significant increases in margin debt have sometimes preceded market peaks and are seen as a potential risk factor, as a market downturn can trigger margin calls and forced selling, which can in turn accelerate a decline.

I always invest on margin, but with the lowest multiplier when the market is at its high (like now) and the highest multiplier in bear markets…

Uhhh, I like it! Will then probably exchange my BTC for that.

By the end of year when my new born children account would be more than 2000$ I wanted to expose the portfolio by 150% with VT on margin.

Could be more practical this ETF with automatic monthly investment if available!

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Buy’n hold 150% stock index is almost sure going to zero in 20 or 30 years. There will be a collapse of 66% or more and…adios dinero. OK, you will get the only tip you should ever listen to from your broker: a margin call.

A leveraged ETF will be not much better, your kid may lose only 99% because it sells after each down day and buys after each up day.

(Do as I say, not as I do. I always invest on margin because “cash is trash”…).

Since 1885-03-20, not even the Great Depression managed to give a 1.5x daily levered US market a drawdown of -99%. Over 20y span the CAGR only touches 0% on two short occasions. Link to testfol.io simulation.

Drawdown

20y rolling CAGR

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… and on a even more diversified ETFs this is imo more unlikely.

Yes, there will be hefty losses but nothing we cannot manage :smiley:

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Well don’t forget I DCA 200 Frs a month so being wiped out with a 1.5 leverage is relatively unlikely.

Maybe when he reaches 10y I should take 5 years reducing leverage to 0 by its 15 years old

Explaining to your kid “you’ve been margin called when you were 3y years old” could be a good lesson

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This is amazing news. I’ll probably aim for 1.33x leverage by investing 2/3 in VT/VTI and 1/3 in this 2x leveraged MSCI World ETF.

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These UCITS products can be as efficient as their US counterparts. Case study 2x S&P 500:

It depends a bit on the day (different exchanges and closing times), but this UCITS ETF (DBPG / XS2D) can keep up with the US ETF (SSO). Over more than a decade, the annualized difference to the US ETF is low. The worst day I could find was -0.4%, on many days it is about 0% and in recent years it was also often positive. But I admit, a rigorous analysis on hourly data would be more pleasing.


And there will be no withholding taxes. But sometimes Swiss taxes: Ictax.

What does the US ETF cost (testfol.io)?

Over all available data it has an annual excess cost of -2.0%. Since the S&P 500 costs next to nothing, this can be attributed as the excess cost of one unit of leverage. It is more expensive than IBKR margin (starting at -1.5%), futures (-0.5%), and box spreads (-0.3%). But it can only blow up itself instead of your whole portfolio.

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Hm that’s pretty bad ngl… I’d have more exopected something along teh line sof TER + futures financing cost.

SSO TER is unreasonable though at 0.9%. Upro is a lot better, as it ha sthe same TER for 3x. You could simply use less of that.

The amundi 2x comparison needs to take into account that AMundi is short € and not $. There most of the difference will come from is my guess.

https://www.reddit.com/r/LETFs/comments/tsrtgn/how_to_calculate_the_cost_of_leverage_for_upro/ Here someone looked at Upros financing cost and would be more in line what I would expect.

Because if you don’t get institutional financing cost of ~.5% over risk-free (and a reasonable TER), then it’s not worth it in my opinion and you should do it yourself.

To me this new etf gets worth it at 0.5% TER + 0.5% excess financing cost. Anything above and you should use margin or other means.

Interestingly, if you set the same total leverage with SSO or UPRO and compensate with CASHX you get the same CAGR for both. I must say, I have trouble wrapping my head around this effect. Also going from 2x to 3x does not double the cost but only makes it 1.5 larger. Which makes some sense, but also doesn’t: The leverage part that costs something only doubled from 1 unit to 2 units.

If you compensate with more realistic cash that has some markup (on both sides), the one that uses less cash wins, of course.

If you compensate with SPY ETF (50/50 UPRO/SPY vs. 100 SSO), UPRO wins. Probably, because you need less of the expensive UPRO/SSO TER.

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Though remember that a leveraged ETF is for short term plays (it’s daily leverage) and is not the same as leveraging a portfolio.

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