Investing in alternative protein sources (to meat and dairy)

Aren’t they just following the market?

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Oatley crashed from the start last year but seems to have found it’s bottom, beyond meat maybe but their product line sucks compared to the competition IMO

They do follow the market but there is a specific reason why these two stocks tanked: they were grossly overpriced. Especially Oatly, I mean they had an all time high of the market cap of like 17 bn and sales for 2021 of ~650 mio… Last 4 quarters there was close to zero growth in sales. How on earth does Oatly different itself from competitors? I mean they sell oat milk, but who knows maybe people will start to pay more for fake milk than for cow milk AND chose to buy it from Oatly. I’m not saying it’s not worth investing in this kind of stocks, but when you choose stocks in general you should check the price and the story of the company.

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Price to sales is currently at 2,7, but they will be unprofitable over the next few years and might run out of cash, even with good growth, but yeah it’s not like their moat is especially huge, oat milk is not rocket science

It’s true that the valuation is now much more reasonable for a growth company. But if you compare it for example to Emmi Group it’t still no bargain. Emmi has P/S of 1.15 but I wouldn’t say the stock is cheap considering their earnings power → P/E is over 20. They have launched their own oat milk under the brand name beleaf and somehow it’s not very strongly braned as Emmi but maybe that’s the whole point because people associate the brand with cow milk. I think if vegan diary alternatives take off the established companies will react very quickly and as one post above also mentioned they are already prepared to switch strategies. After all that’s the core task of management to shift the enterprise if times change.

Hmm yes Emmi seems pretty inexpensive in that sense and a solid company financially with a P/E 23,7.
The philosophy is based on the original Swiss dairy farmer ownership that founded it, to me they seem pretty old fashioned, not a lot of innovation, not a lot of potential growth.
Maybe I live in a bubble but I hardly know anyone who still drinks cow milk.
Also they have nearly 700 Min CHF in debts (!)
Earnings are forecast to grow by 8,3% for the next few years so all in all not a bad company but still won’t outperform your standard ETF
Therefore nothing I would bother to buy.
And the belief milk is really awful :nauseated_face:

No, probably not an outperformer :smiley: I don’t think the debt situation is bad for today’s standards. Earnings forecasts are probably not yet taking into account a probable recession :melting_face: I find all oat milks awful but I don’t know which are better or worse :smiley: