Wall Street pros don’t make more returns than VT 
So I hope not to be Wall Street pro
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Thanks, so you know that thread :-). I still believe in that investment, but only because I know where it is coming from and how many good investments I had from that source. It doesn’t guarantee that it will be a good choice, in some years we will know. But I’m like 100% sure that it is not a scam. I think I invested 25k there and I won’t do more until I sold a portion. I will update the thread then.
Regarding artwork…I would say I’m an expert in that field where I buy, hold and sell artwork. I started with that topic when I was about 16 years of age and a lot of people asking me for my opinion in that area and no one ever complained. This market also dropped a little the last 2 -3 years, but I bought at very low prices, so I don’t think I will loose money there. I used to sell a lot before covid, then I got tired of it and it was really time consuming. I changed strategy and stopped selling to human beings (except if the come to me and it is an easy deal without much work), now I only sell to galleries and other art deales. Not that much as before covid, but that’s only because I’m lazy and I want to keep stuff so that I have something to do when retired.
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Not to forget that my partner is a lot younger than me and when I stop working it only makes sense if she stops as well, so I need money for her also. Actually the portfolio will be handed over to her then and hopefully until then I will be more experienced so that I can teach her.
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Maybe I watched to much Billions 
By the way, you should watch it 
80k in equity ETFs, at 52, with RE (and others) on the side, is definitely not “agressive”, no worries.
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There is a nice story about a (made up) guy buying always at price peaks.
Reading it always calmes me down in market turbulences.
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Hi Goodhope. It has been statistically proven / backtested that an investor that continuously, systematically, dollar cost averages into the index, and endures the dips, will outperform the one that, trying to “time the market”, looses the normally very rapid recover days. Just understand that there is no one that can predict if the market is going to invert tendency, continue rise, or continue to fall, and for how much. As they say, “time in the market” always beats “timing the market”. Stay long, stay brave. Best!
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Thanks, I think I got it and good that I asked this here. I don’t think that I would be one of the lucky ones when trying 
Short update, just sold AVUV and AVDV. Lost 180 USD but that’s ok for the mistake I made. Used the 8k to bring my VT part to 55%.
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I don’t think you lost anything. It’s 2.25% „loss“ on AVDV/AVUV but you also bought VT at a discount versus its all time high (most likely 2-2.5%). So money will be recovered soon when markets recover
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As I see it Goodhope is not timing the market but just rebalancing / restablishing his portforlio towards a more diversified global approach (mainly VT).
Now the question to ask yourself is… What is your investment strategy? I ask this because you should stick to a strategy longterm.
Yes, you are right and that’s basically the way I see it, too. Or…15 days no lunch 
Now watching XHB, that’s the next on my list, -450 USD currently.
“Timing” was basically the question I raised yesterday but after the great discussion here, I changed my mind. Still selling, but for rebalancing. Strategy? Good question, still somehow in the learning phase. Doing minor mistakes which is ok. AVUV and AVDV were definitely not a good buy for me. I still believe in the Homebuilder XHB ETF, but maybe better to focus on less ETFs. That money will also go into VT.
Not sure, yet, but I think I will do 70% VT, 20 % SCHG and 10% SMH. Some gambling still in the portfolio like IBIT…but not counting this to the 100%.
I think this is real estate ETF.
This is way to have exposure to another asset class in my view. So might not be bad to have. But I don’t know if Homebuilders stocks follow real estate returns
Although you said yesterday that you already have a lot of money in real estate. Something to think about if you are over exposed to real estate.
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I think you will constantly hear in this group.
It’s important to decide on an asset allocation plus portfolio strategy and stick to it. This is important to realize the returns you are expecting to have.
Seems like you are trying to gravitate towards one simple strategy. All the best
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XHB basically is this
|Building Products|46.09%|
|Homebuilding|35.92%|
|Home Improvement Retail|10.11%|
|Homefurnishing Retail|4.49%|
|Home Furnishings|3.40%|
I still think it is an good ETF, a little expensive (0,35%) though. But 1 sector ETF (semiconductor) should be enough “playing” and 10% should be ok.
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I would argue they lost diversification from that. VT is very concentrate in a few large caps like aapl, nvda etc.
But that‘s besides the point. Obviously goodhope is not someone that should be factor investing and only buy the market portfolio (VT), as they cant seem to handle tracking error.
And that‘s totally fine.
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With the yesterdays tech bloodbath - the guy missed the opportunity for valuable lesson. You can time the market when you are serious about it. It’s a probability game, and requires patience and some exposure to knowledge, experience and risk management, but it works 6 out of 10 times - and that’s all you need.
Btw. its fascinating to watch how everybody is jerking each other in echo chambers, till shit happens - and then the only thing you hear are crickets.
The funny thing is that his guts were actually correct.
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There are two things I would say:
- People who want to actually time the market, efficiently or not, absolutely need steel-hard conviction. Things may happen, or they may not, but even when they do, they do so on their own timeline, there’s plenty of place for doubting your positioning inbetween.
→ anybody who can be convinced out of trying a timing operation by strangers on a message board likely doesn’t have the required conviction and should stay away from trying to time the market. That is in part why I think it is beneficial that the predominant talk is toward index investing and “timing the market doesn’t work”. Even if some people could effectively time the market, they gain by having their mettle tested.
People who want to go around without guardrails don’t need to be told they can jump over the guardrails and do whatever they please; if the guardrails stop you, there are far worse things you would meet out there that the guardrails were guarding you from.
- A side note against shorting (which is a form of timing the market): it is a completely different beast than simply buying and selling regular funds/stocks because then, the timing in which things happen matters and you can’t hold your position indefinitely. You can absolutely be right on your bet and still be wiped out because the path there wasn’t the one you had anticipated.
Edit: Another side note: while I think it’s fine to make experiments and put our own money at risk, I would absolutely not encourage anybody investing money needed to care for their dependents to try anything more complicated or risky than widely diversified index funds.
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Ooops. What happened to semiconductors and tech yesterday?
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