The problem people are just sheep following media and prefer go to youtube or facebook before looking what happen at Chernobyl Fukushima and look the difference between fission fusion and molten salts.
We have the alexandria library with ALL informations but no one spend time to search and learn. But people vote for just unknown subject at all. Nuclear even fission are more safer than take you car because you are more likely to die than live at 10m of a fission power central.
5g the problem is the leak of studies. All reports speak about fertility and sleep problem but not one study is enough and no one made another study. People should just be together pros and cons and ask a study because we have the right to know !
Yes and even molten salts developed and working before first nuclear bomb.
Because people are sheep and not think. But will probably make noise if the price of electricity goes up due to their choices.
After Cambridge Analytica (Great Hack 2019) come and can change mind of sheep. Perhaps the end of democracy if this continues and people not evolve.
I’m not going to reply very extensively because it’s clear that I cannot change your opinion.
This is much more useful that your blanket statement of ‘there is no AI’. Now I have a hint to a source (a direct link would be even better) and actually can make up my mind.
Well, what is Intelligence (without the artificial) then if not very detailed pattern matching? Honest question: Do you expect magic?
So in your definition of ‘Intelligence’ you require that it is hard to describe (it needs a very long article) and that it contains or can produce true randomness? If we measure by producing true randomness I agree with you that we will never attain AI.
Now you’re moving the goalposts. I was just responding to your claim that no computer can write a program on its own. But it’s trivial to introduce if/else statements or similar things that modify the code while replicating. There already have been worms that did exactly that to replicate.
I’ll give you leads afterwards for each of you to explore. I’m not a scientist doctor developer just a simple sheep that spends time searching and inquiring as everyone else should.
Not expect any magic and yes brain can be fooled by a simple picture. Intelligence is for me not well defined yet because a plant is as smart as an animal or a human in his own level. If you say a human is smarter, why are we destroying our planet knowing this for money ? A plant or a animal not destroy his own planet and only take cares about his own survival.
Quantum physics may look like magic, but it’s not. The Greeks (Hero) used the steam engine without probably know what is a steam engine. The Baghdad battery probably used for electrolysis without know what is electrolysis. We just not have type of computer/code for AI yet. AI = computer can take its own decisions and write its own code for his own reasons. Actual computer are calculators programmed by humans.
Calculator worlds isn’t random at all because you ask 0 or 1 and can’t be really random and not be chosen randomly by computer itself. The first AI code/computer can probably generate random numbers yes.
No a worm is programmed and can even be updated remotely but still a calculator that does exactly what it’s asked to do. If something hasn’t been planned, it’s over for a worm. That’s the work of an antivirus.
Anti-virus are said “AI” with heuristic work. But just follow to block all activites modifying “explorer.exe” or a registry key for Windows if this file/registry not planned the worm/virus win and continue…
Self replication is what is done inside each cell for an human body. But when something goes wrong a cell continue replicate bad DNA and propagate what we call a “cancer”. There’s no intelligence for solve this issue. We get older because the cells don’t reproduce the same thing at 10 as they do at 70.
You have read ?
It’s just a compilation improvement instead of process 6 lines compressed to 2 line of code so faster processing for CPU. Actual typed language is compiled or modified to a computer language for be understand by the processor and that’s the main problem of AI yet.
I known it can be hard to made the difference between a calculator and a brain because even the brain have some calculator functions and we are just a big computer with a lot of different sensors. It’s why marketing play with AI world everywhere. Everyone think at Terminator but we are far away of that.
During the first years of life we observe and self replicate what’s around us when an animal should learn to walk some hours after else he dies but a computer can’t observe and self replicate without following an human algorithm/code.
If you want tomorrow true AI. We need a computer can process itself these own generated lines of code. You buy a raspberry pi put an empty sd card and with power supply the processor/brain learn to use itself these sensors for generate and process some lines of code like a baby who use eyes for look what happen near him and begin to interact with his world begin to use his sd card/memory for store some informations. We are at 0% of AI due to that not any CPU or even code/library can do that actually.
Yes everyone stop because no one want to spend time for search by itself and prefer take marketing for truth. Like an electrical car is 100% green but it’s just not green and depend a lot of country power source. Even a solar panel take a lot of resources for be manufactured and solar small charger are a plague for planet because used less than 10 years 24/24h that’s time needed for a solar panel to be more efficient than costly to environmental resources. I’m a simple sheep I just spending time to go search all on Internet like everyone can do because we have all the same Internet unlimited access we aren’t in China with a great firewall.
Before people need to learn on their own. Take a lot of time to build slowly a “safe” power plant and it’s probably already too late for replace our current power plant already unsafe due to years attacked by radiation. These type of power plant are already all shutdown around the planet since years but without any other power source they can’t and need to run indefinitely.
Laws take a lot of time to be modified and we don’t have time. The production is already negative with this power plant closed in December 2019.
I thought that (most) nuclear power plants generate energy by fission.
And Switzerland has 4 of them active - Nuclear Power in Switzerland - World Nuclear Association.
Perhaps it is meant in the context of building up new ones?
All nuclear power plants generate power by fission.
Very simplified:
Fission: Take an atom, shoot a neutron into its core, then it falls apart and releases energy. Harvest this energy by getting water to boil, then use the steam to power a turbine and generate elecricity.
Fusion: Take two atoms and get them to fuse to form a new atom, whereby a lot of energy is released. The sun fuses nuclei to generate its power.
Mankind has succeeded in “taming” fission and using it peacefully to generate power. Yet so far, research is still ongoing to build fusion nuclear reactors. Fusion reactors are expected to yield much more energy.
Switzerland has banned new power plants that use either technology.
Yet nobody has even succeeded in building a functioning fusion power plant.
Fusion reactors, 70 years of human research & still so many problems to solve - this clearly isn’t a task for us humans, but for AI to solve!
Tesla will be announcing the solution begin 2021.
What if Elon Musk has been sent back in time by the machines to help develop AI so that it can take over the World? “Cybertruck”? “Starlink”? Be very afraid…
No there is a third : molten salts using thorium who can reuse some nuclear waste
And probably other way for use energy stored inside current called “nuclear waste”. But radiation = pure energy
Molten salts power plant have already running successfully before first nuclear weapon who force world to go with fission but it’s safe. Build for 20-25 years and run now since 47 years and more for other nuclear power plant but we just can’t shutdown due to this law that’s great to have the older power plant in the world thank you people who not go read how work a nuclear reactor before writing yes or no.
Look Chernobyl like that you can know and spend useful time.
I’m curious to view old dam too with so many pressure and movements due to water pressure. It can probably cause structural damage over time.
This is truism because saving/investment by definition is delayed consumption. The whole point is what is the proportion of saving/investing to consumption and what is the nature of consumption (let’s say reading books is a better consumption than for example taking heroin). They in the end determine the economic growth and improvements of quality of life. If you save for example to build a building (investment) or take heroin all the time (consumption) - which activity contributes more to economic growth and well being?
It’s been a while since @jcd posted and I do not want to elaborate on AI or nucler energy. Instead I would like to point out a blind spot that most economist seem to have: they try to explain how markets work without trying to explain how crises are made.
Maybe crises are the secret sauce that allow growth in between. History is a long chain of traumatic events and if we try to look beyond the smoke screen of booming markets, crazy amount of money printing and momentaneous news, we might realize we are headed towards a crisis of 1929 size. Not sure all Boglehead theories will still hold up with such an event.
Maybe good to look up from our splendid isolation and try to make sense of what is happening out there. I wrote a post about the health of our economy for dummies (which I consider myself to be), maybe it helps to further our reflection on growth and the temporary end of it. Because after a crisis there is always much room for new growth.
Are our portfolios, beliefs and life expectancy ready for a fundamental crisis?
Thanks for this post. I agree that we will probably see slower growth going forward, given the exceptionality of the last 100 years or so in the history of mankind.
I see the main problem going forward coming from our short-sightedness (fuelled by greed, which the FIR movement is not free from) which is bringing about the destruction of the very same environment that we rely on for sustaining our civilisation and existence itself.
Climate change and loss of biodiversity will be the two biggest crises ahead IMVHO.
Unfortunately this does not (always) translate to less resources being used (there’s a name for this effect, can’t recall it now).
Look at cars: great improvements in efficiency have been totally wasted by people wanting bigger and heavier cars, even though they live in the city. Same thing for the internet: we are using (I’d rather say “wasting”) an insane amount of energy to store and stream an inconceivable amount of crap like videos of cats and porn.
Interesting post, thanks for sharing. Are you an economist btw?
One outcome would be to shift our portfolio more towards bonds as you mention in the conclusion of your post but then with which kind of bonds? Swiss bonds have negative interest rates and other foreign bonds such as US bonds have since a year a falling USD/CHF exchange rate…
For now, money is the better bond, as there is usually no negative interest and AAA rating for cash. I never invested in bonds as I considered it too boring, but at a point it will make sense, e.g. if coupon interest rate will be in the area of what makes us happy, debtor rating will be adequate to our risk appetite and the currency is what we need for a good asset allocation.
The current madness on the stock exchanges is such that all feel the need and urge to participate. Maybe a limited sell order can lock in your stock gains when the market turns south before interest rates come up?
I agree that the median for economic growth is maybe lower for the next couple of decades. But in expectation it’s much larger. It’s also much larger in the very long-run (centuries).
Don’t have time atm to get into details, but reasoning goes something like this:
Medium-run expectation: narrow AI could increase productivity substantially Long-run expectation: General AI will most likely happen some time over the next centuries.
There is uncertainty about how scaleable and useable narrow AI will be, and how resource intensive. But if you look at GPT-3, for example, it seems quite possible that many jobs (coding, writing, accounting, data aggregation, etc.) could be automated within the next decade or two by similar AI.
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thanks for the tip. I’ve added the sources.
