I am so afraid this is the worst time to RE - What do you think?

Have you considered a career in standup comedy?

Just chiming in to say how much I enjoyed (and emphasise with) this sentence!

May be 1929 even worst ? :smiley:

I’m starting to believe 1929 was not so bad after all. It seems that there were worse crashes and the best way to protect yourself from it is a rigorous asset allocation, a.k.a. not all eggs in the same basket. This guy has played around with some numbers: https://bankeronwheels.com/how-to-take-advantage-of-a-recession/

Where did I say I wasn’t doing that?

Interesting. I also fee that the following approach (in German) is quite good. That’s what I will model my approach after:

http://www.index-capital.info/blog/2020/5/11/ultrastabilitt-in-der-coronakrise

Thanks, that’s a very good approach. Boring but solid :smiley:

All,

thanks for your input. I just wanted to inform you that I pulled the trigger. I’m FIRE since 1. April (and that’s not a joke…). I managed to get to a SWR of under 3%. The background of my “windfall” is… you will be calling me crazy, I know… in 2011 I bought some Bitcoins when they were at 9 USD. I sold them when they were at 38’000 USD and could retire. I know, it was high risk, it was definitely irresponsible. But it was always only one of the seeds for FIRE. If it wouldn’t have blossomed it would have been ok. But in the end it worked out.

I’m elated, it’s a weird feeling buying groceries on a Tuesday morning. I wanted to thank everybody who supported me with great insights. I will try to post regularly on how things are going and what I am constantly learning in this phase.

A first fun observation regarding FIRE in CH: the Raiffeisen bank (my current account) informally told me they don’t want me as a customer if I don’t invest anything with them. They know about my situation and don’t like customers which only pipe liquidity through them but doesn’t buy any product or doesn’t take any loans. I set up a Neon account as my alternative and they are cool with my situation. I’m curious on how that will play out with Raiffeisen but I was able to postpone the closure, telling them some story about me “still having to digest the situation but open to listen to their proposals”. They will contact me again this month…

28 Likes

Great to read this old post and the update. Congrats again! And keep us posted!

2 Likes

Well sad for them to lose a customer who will probably never advice their bank to their relatives, friends and collegues :slight_smile:

Enjoy your FIRE!

Are you a Raiffeisen member (owning shares)? I don’t know why they would kick you out.
They have a lot of small customers, retirees, etc who have no product. I wonder if they are allowed to close an account as they want. Maybe it’s just the employee who was pissed off not to sell you products. I have always considered Raiffeisen to be a more responsible/social bank than UBS and CS, so I’m surprised of your story.

How much do you plan to spend each year?
Do you plan to retire in CH?
Do you own a home?

2 Likes

Very weird the thing about Raiffeisen. Also it’s unfortunate for you to lose that account. With you new liberty, you could spend hours/days on most swiss museums for free.

1 Like

And today thery’re again around 60k USD… congrats on the FIRE tho, any specific plans on what to do with the time?

Cool, I hope you will enjoy your new freedom.

How much did you buy BTC for in 2011?
I guess it must have been tough when BTC peaked a couple years ago to crash some 90%? Glad it has worked out well for you in the end.

Well, I am a Raiffeisen Plus member. I guess what they are worried about is that I have a trading account with my assets somewhere else and I just pump money through Raiffeisen. He said they don’t like clients that only “bring liquidity”, especially in those times of negative interests. I thing what also triggered him was that I maxed out my second pillar payments and piped the money for that through Raiffeisen. Simply because my trading account (CT) only allows withdrawals to accounts in my name. Obviously my RM at Raiffeisen wasn’t too happy to see a large amount coming in and going out a day later.

Anyhow, I will deal with the situation the next time he bothers me.

I will spend around 120k per year plus taxes on wealth and income. I actually retired in Switzerland which is obviously not a cheap place to live but I have so many ties that it’s ok. Plus I can, which is great. I don’t have a home but I like renting. Let’s see how things evolve. I am taking this first year to just lay back and plan my future.

6 Likes

Yeah, don’t remind me about the rising bitcoin price… It subtly frustrates me :slight_smile: But then again… enough is enough at some point!

I have time now. The same salary when I worked but with limitless time. It’s quite exhilarating to walk into a grocery store and see it empty. Anyhow: I will probably take the first year to lay back and plan the future. I have some ideas: certainly realise some fun business ideas and see whether I can build something out of it (some non-stressful side income) and maybe do some charity work? Like on a hospital ship, in Africa or wherever? One thing is sure: it’s not going to get boring… :slight_smile:

8 Likes

Yeah, that was quite a rollercoaster ride. I bought when Bitcoin went for 9 USD a piece, then bought some more when Bitcoin was at 32 USD. I felt crazy when I did that, thinking it was so high already. A couple of years back it touched 20k and fell down to 3k. I was about to sell but, guess what, anti money laundering investigations from Swiss banks made it impossible for me to sell. I had to go through quite some hoops to actually prove I legitimately owned the assets. It didn’t help that I moved them around, traded a bit on some platforms that are now defunct (and thus with no trace). Anyhow, the day I got the green light to sell, the price was at 3k and I simply held on.

5 Likes

Have you tried plugging your numbers into firecalc? I’d think if you’re getting 95–100% success rate there you’ll be fine no matter what?

You could also delay your retirement by a year (with a savings rate very close to 100%) as a buffer or work part time for a little while.

I’m not sure if I’ve said already elsewhere, but I thought about a way you can feel safe.
If your expenses for rent+insurances are less than 50% of your future income, you can always fly to another cheaper country for 6months if the market crashes. This way you can save some money. It is important to see if rent+insurances are less than 50%. If they are higher you might not save much if you move abroad (you still have to pay the flight and the rent there).

1 Like

congrats.

i worked with them before and i got similar feedback. my assumption is that you have now a few million chf sitting there. totally reasonable to do nothing for a while (eventually you want to invest in etfs, real estate, etc).

my recommendation is to open 4-5 bank accounts (forget about the monthly fees) and park money according to the bank limits (250k at ubs, 100k at cs, 100k at interactive brokers, etc etc). private wealth teams are fancy but effectively want to charge you 1% for plush leather seats, etc. i wasn’t convinced in the end :slight_smile:

2 Likes