Future of Bitcoin

I was debating if it was time to become a whole coiner or not. Decided against it but to at least increase my stake in it to avoid future regrets in life in case of moon. Not that I’m frustrated in it or anything but when I first discovered Bitcoin it was 2k and I first bought around 4k. Unfortunately I was a broke student and not even in Switzerland so the amounts were even lower. Invested what I could justify at the time also with the help of my mother.

Had I been a couple of years older and thus working by then… what could have been :sweat_smile:

That being said I could have been DCAing for the last years or so and I didn’t, so there’s also that. I’m not naive to think that that was the “only chance”.

If there’s a further dip I might reach 1.0

So the ETF is better than having a wallet on Coinbase?

Any idea on how to keep track of how widely BTC is used / keep track of progress there? Any hard metric we can look at?

Some countries adopt it, some countries forbid it, overall it’s hard to know what’s happening globally.

IMO yes. Best as in safer. But I haven’t done a deep research on the ETFs so I might be missing something.

Interesting story, I totally understand that it must be super hard now to buy some BTC at 40k USD when you lived it and saw it at 2k… At that time I always thought this kind of thing is BS but seeing what is happening in the world lately I think it is good to diversify and hence have the goal for 2024 to have at least 1 BTC. Now if it shots to the moon it’s an added benefit if not then it does not matter to much as this is my “fun” money and not part of my core portfolio. I will DCA to reach at least 1 BTC and then further evaluate as necessary (if it has already reached too high levels then I’ll skip). I am really intrigued to see what will happen with the halving in April…

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ETFs own 1.5% of all Gold.
ETFs already own 3% of all Bitcoin.

and Tether manages 4% of all the usd in cicrulation with a handfull of people…

I disagree. An ETF you can only sell during exchange hours.
(not that ever you should sell any BTC…)
I keep 95% in self custody, and 5% on Kraken (and some on Wallet of Satoshi for spending). Kraken let me have quick access in case of emergency.

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I have the same 95/5 like you. I plan to DCA into ETF tho, to diversify risk of losing my private keys :scream:

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:scream::scream:
Well, that’s a risk. But I don’t like the fee with the ETF.
I’m learning my 2x 24 seed by heart. Next my wife must learn it than my two kids.
(Otherwise offline in the keepassxc db with master known by my family).

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Maybe I am naive, but I was wondering: given that everyone (at least everyone with a bit of knowledge about BTC) knows about the halving, shouldn’t today’s price take that into account?

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You have an abundance of metrics available as it is a public ledger, I personally like these two websites:

*Clark Moody dashboard

*Lots of charts

As for more specific data, it really depends… Typically we don’t have the public address of El Salvador…which is a shame. But we do have the address of the Bitwise Etf for instance, which is an amazing step towards transparency… Try to do that with a gold etf :sweat_smile:

Overall, the most active discussions on these topics happen on twitter, but there is so much it is hard to follow.

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We just hit the mainstream with etf, I don’t thing most know about the halving, just like they don’t know that 93% of all bitcoin in existence are already mined. At least I have this feeling when talking with friends or colleagues, they have just never heard of it.

I guess we will find out soon when Blackrock starts to make ads about it.

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I see, so you would say efficient-market hypothesis should be in play here. I tend to think that because there is always less and less BTC available the demand will go higher, especially now all these BTC ETFs are available for the grand public. So I believe more into the demand and supply model with the motto that everyone will want to have their piece of BTC cake before it’s too late :partying_face:

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When blackrock starts loading (currently 2B) and GBTC/FTX stop selling.

VanEck? (20 chars ok…)

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I might be wrong here but maybe still not quite the same?

If you have an ETF which has the BTC on Coinbase and Coinbase goes bust then who is at fault? I’d assume that the company providing the ETF has some sort of liability/responsibility.

Same with the ones that do self custody.

Again a lot of assumptions on my side (take all of the above with a healthy dose of doubt) but I’d (like to) believe that at least there’s a bit more regulation on the ETF side and so maybe more security.

Coinbase was forced by SEC and was accepted to be faster but over time i expect more diversification and even self custody.

It is indeed not the same. If you use coinbase, you are part of a pool, just like with a bank. So you don’t really know what they do with your btc as they don’t publish proof of reserve…

While for the etf it is a custodial wallet(s) managed by coinbase.

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The auditing of coinbase is for their financial statement and “control” over client’s addresses, whatever that means. They can still play with the utxo, nobody is checking that. Until they have a full proof of reserve + proof liabilities, we simply don’t know what coinbase does with your btc.

Further proof is how coinbase ALWAYS stop trading during big swings, they simply don’t have the bitcoins they claim they have…