Future of Bitcoin

You’d be surprised by how many banks still use software from the 80s/90s, because it’s too expensive to switch to newer systems. SWIFT will not disappear anytime soon, there’s too much dependencies from far too many counterparties.

2 Likes

Yes I see signs of adoption :rofl:

https://www.cash.ch/kryptowaehrungen

No sign of adoption :face_with_peeking_eye:

I do admit it as a sign of some adoption, though I feel compelled to react to “the most conservative of financial institutions” addressed at PostFinance, because :rofl:

1 Like

Adoption trend for remittances in El Salvador meanwhile


Hard to see, but that’s 1.8% in May

Source: Central bank of El Salvador

6 Likes

Sign of middlemen selling their customers what they demand - for a fee.

Tell us if and how much they’re taking on their balance sheet - or as executive compensation.

1 Like

That’s only the Chivo wallet (ie no other wallets and no P2p transactions) , and that’s +3.9% Yoy.

It is more interesting in value, that’s $52m from Jan to May, so if we extrapolate that’s ~$10m+ in remittance fees saved only on the Chivo wallet.

$10m directly in the pocket of people.

So unless you are a western union shareholder, I don’t see what there is not to like here.

So there is demand… But no adoption :thinking::thinking::thinking: something is not adding up…

Ok, that’s only Chivo but at the same time it’s also +3.9% YoY, when last year the Chivo wallet didn’t even exist?

There might be a misunderstanding, i like that graph very much

3 Likes

Exactly. Relatively high demand for little to no real-world adoption.

As evidenced by the last five or ten or so years of Bitcoin’s price and history.

Hey crypto bros, how is the Inflation hedging goin on? Feeling protected? Last year someone was telling me that BTC will go to 100k by this year and if we will have Inflation, it’s gonna happen even faster. I don’t see that happening…

5 Likes

One of the most hilarious arguments about Bitcoin’s value I’ve heard is that Bitcoin derives it’s value from the fact that it is useful decentralized payment system, yet when I asked why ain’t nobody (including cryptolunatics) is using it on daily basis to buy goods and services, I’ve got a response that it’s due to Copernicus-Gresham law, that is Bitcoin is too strong currency to be used for such silly stuff like paying (similarly to gold). And they don’t see contradiction in this - Bitcoin is good because it’s useful, yet nobody is using it for anything except trading and FOMO investing.

Another argument was that it is good store of value and an inflation hedge, yet it is too volatile for store and apparently it’s not protecting us from the Inflation either.

3 Likes

Why not?
As Get-rich-quick schemes go, it has been one of the most successful and promising.
And this forum is about getting rich quick, innit?

Who can explain me - who takes responsibility if things go south with bitcoin, crypto or blockchain on operational, tactical or strategic level?
Simplified example - I know that company I invested or government to which I pay taxes uses expensive Windows package while they could get all for free using Ubutu. But I’m ok with that, since I know that there is Microsoft behind as a responsible counterpart to do all it takes up to agreed contract in the even of cyber attack or huge bug in software. In the worst case, you can fine or incarcerate someone due to misdoes.
With Ubuntu you are at them mercy of community where responsibility is diluted. No central guarantor, no contract and no one to take accountable, no one to blame.

Why would I put money in crypto if in the even of loss I don’t know who is responsible behind?
In other words, I really doubt that this DeFi will fly in whatever form if there will be no central guarantor behind, let it be private company, central bank or government.

1 Like

Bla bla bla

Meanwhile

image

That’s why it’s called Decentralized Finance.

I’ve read recently that +90% of the transactions in BTC is trading, the remaining 10% is most likely people who can’t use bank transfer - e.g. criminals or some third country people who don’t have banking infrastructure but they do have Internet infrastructure.

Evidence is clear - Bitcoin is not used for payments in places where it has competition of banks. It’s also a terrible store of value and inflation hedge. Adoption for payment or store of value and not for trading is going nowhere.

Bitcoin might be the best monetary system in the universe (which I doubt), but as long as the general public treats it as a lottery, gambling, and trading platform, it doesn’t really matter what qualities it has - it won’t get adopted as money. You need people to use it.

2 Likes

It’s not used for payment because it can’t scale.
It’s a store of value long term, unzoom and check the price.

There’s not much to unzoom, it’s too short time perspective. I think we are still in the bubble. It is pretty good trading and speculation platform because it has high volatility. The interesting trend is that Bitcoin cannot become payment system and store of value because it is too volatile. And the more volatile it is, the more traders it attracts because volatility is an opportunity to make money on bets. And this fuels further volatility… And the cycles go on and on. All my friends who are using Bitcoin, they use it for trading and not as money. In fact, I think the main driver of Bitcoin price is the adoption for trading. And the problem is that nobody will use it as money if so many people fuel volatility with trading. It’s a vicious cycle that Bitcoin can’t get out of to become money (payment system + store of value) - no matter how big the market for Bitcoin really is.

5 Likes

Sorry, you put some non descriptive image in between, do I pronounce this correctly “bla bla bla meanwhile it’s called decentralized finance”? :slight_smile:

Yeah, and the table is missing 2022 YTD returns: -57.19%. Besides, if somebody showed me such a table with returns and asked me what is it - I’d say it’s a bubble. These returns are ridiculous - nothing, no matter how revolutionary technology, can be sustainable with these levels of hype-fueled growth. Eventually everything reverses to the mean.

i like this analogy, and it always seem like btc is cash invented by some fancy programmer with a over complicated feature that no one wants just like ubuntu…

1 Like