Future of Bitcoin

Probably several movement in a positive direction.

  • US election more BTC friendly
  • Global investors slowly starting (BlackRock, Microstrategy and probably many in which we don’t know)
  • Inflation outlook (similar as Gold price moves now)
  • Some country starting slowly to adapt towards BTC
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somebody is buying :sweat_smile:

New Bitcoin ATH : 80’137 USD (first time above 80k :scream:).

This is fun to look at, a little scary too.

If you need a christmas gift for your beloved ones… How about a book?

“The bitcoin standard” is a classic :ok_hand:

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I am bit confused

Trump administration wants to make America great again. They even threaten to punish countries which would try to move away from USD . So if US wants to protect USD, why would they support people holding their value in BTC vs Fiat ?

It’s one thing to say that new US govt is crypto friendly because they might not ban BTC and keep their current holding , it’s another thing to say US would let BTC become dominant vs USD as a store of value.

I understand the enthusiasm about store of value and current market action post US elections; but let’s remember that GOLD added 4.5 trillion USD in market cap during 2024 alone. BTC added 1.5 trillion USD in market cap during its existence. In other world, physical gold is still the preferred choice versus digital gold.

P.S -: I am not saying GOLD is not speculative. It is.

It’s hard to predict market behavior of ‘conventional’ ETFs or of individual companies. But IMO it’s still an order of magnitude harder to do this with bitcoin.

It’s just soo much more of a speculative asset (at least until today), that I don’t see much value in trying to predict or retrospectively explain it…

The storyline is the USA back the usd by btc, like the usd used to be backed by gold.
Of course thats highly unlikely to happen in the next 4 years

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Funny to see that this topic “Future of Bitcoin” was completely dead these last two years, and now that we are in ATH everyone is excited and debating. Congratulations to those who have built and had convictions over the last two years, you deserve it :trophy:.

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Really?
I was under impression that US simply cannot function if they don’t have ability to print money at will.

If they want to restrict this. Why do they need anything to back it up? Can’t they just apply a limit to money supply?

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Absolutely agree with you. I do not think the USA are going to back the USD with Bitcoin (especially not in the foreseeable future).

I think what is more realistic and will have a huge impact on the BTC price is institutional adoption. E.g.

  1. Companies buying bitcoin for their Balance sheet (e.g. Microstrategy, Tesla, etc.)
  2. Pension Funds with multi-asset strategies to allocate partly to BTC like 3% of Portfolio (e.g. Pension Fund Michigan, Wisconsin, etc.)
  3. there is speculation around that another country (besides El Salvador and Bhutan) accumulated bitcoin (100’000+) and would disclose this in 2025.

best
Jonas

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One could think it’s the first cycle….

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he did it again…

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:orange_circle: “Bitcoin mania taking over the stock market too as Coinbase and Microstrategy are both in Top 5 most traded stocks today, something i’ve never seen, only Tesla and Nvidia more. Both up an absurd 18% today. Feels like a craze, at least for the moment…”

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I am kind of surprised to see this level of hype after 2 years of bull market. But I am also sure that it can go higher!

I would say , right now the mood is RISK ON. So most risk assets are going up asset prices are getting stretched.

Let’s see how it goes. But it seems like for time being bull market continues in US.

In addition -: apparently there is also a talk to remove some regulation which stops US Banks to custody Bitcoin. This is also going to help adoption.

I am thinking one point which I don’t really understand.

At this moment, almost all asset classes are at all time high except bonds

  • stocks
  • Gold
  • US real estate
  • Swiss real estate
  • I also heard Money market funds are at all time highs
  • Bank deposits in US commercial banks are 1.5% below all time high

Does it mean that money moving into BTC is actually moving away from BONDS post pandemic?

The money supply is not fixed.
You can borrow today money from your bank and invest in btc…
The bank simply records the loan as a receivable. Newly created money will be wired to you.
No money needs to be moved out of any existing investment.
When you repay the loan, the bank cancels the receivable and the money disappers…

So, no, bond money doesnt move to btc

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Bank cannot create money. They can only loan money from deposits they have. That’s why we have cash reserve ratios to maintain minimum amount of deposits.

As far as I know only bank that can create money is Federal reserve or other National banks.

But I understand. You are saying that BTC is not taking money from anything. It’s just taking newly created money (by national banks) like everything else is.

Sorry, but your understanding is not correct.

Banks do not create loans based on the amount of deposits.

I oversimplified by leaving out the capital requirement s.

I find a lot of very technical sources but i think this one is decent for the start

Commercial banks create money by using book entries. Take the example of an individual, Mister X, who takes out a consumer loan. When issuing the loan, the bank credits Mister X’s checking account (demand deposits) in the amount M corresponding to the loan, which increases the ‘customer deposits’ in its liabilities, and therefore the money supply. At the same time, the bank records its credit to Mister X in its assets under the ‘customer loans’ heading.

https://group.bnpparibas/en/news/money-creation-work

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