The geometric real returns in the period 1914-2023 were for domestic CH stocks 0.38% per month ( 4.7% p.a.), for international stocks 0.37% per month ( 4.5% p.a.). These data are real returns after inflation. For international stocks, they count how a Swiss investor would have received them (counting exchange rates).
The geometric real annualized returns (%) on equities for 1900-2022 were:
World 5.0%
World exUS 4.3%
US 6.4%
Europe 4.1%
CH 4.5%
A slightly different period, but similar return for CH stocks (4.5% p.a.).
Is the database that these papers use accessible? That would be a great tool to have in the website!! In order to calculate how CH stocks performed in different periods.
For the inflation data, I think it would also be interesting to get:
The average geometric yearly rate of inflation for the selected period (e.g. from the last 10 years)
That you can calculate the inflation between two dates that you can freely choose. Ideally you would get the cumulative inflation, the average yearly rate, and if you input an initial quantity (e.g. 50 CHF) what would be the equivalent real adjusted quantity.
Other interesting curves would be:
the historical performance of gold and silver in CHF in nominal and in real terms
The historical performance of the Swiss real estate market both in nominal and real terms. A proxy for investors is the SWIIT index from SIX since 1999. I can see the curves in the link but I don’t know if you could really access the data.
To be able to compare the performance/curves of differents assets in CHF in nominal and real terms (CH stocks, ex-CH stocks, cash, 10y CH government bonds, Swiss Real Estate, gold…)
Thanks for the website! I really appreciate it doesn’t have any trackers, sponsors or advertising.
Thanks a lot, this is really useful input. And glad you like that there’s no tracking or ads, that was important to me from the start
I looked into the long term data. The databases behind those two studies are unfortunately commercial, so I can’t publish them. But a good part of what you describe is public: Swiss inflation goes back to 1914 from the Federal Statistical Office, and the SNB has long series for interest rates and government bond yields. So an inflation calculator with free start and end dates, cumulative inflation, average yearly rate and the real value of an amount is very doable. I’ll probably start with that
The full asset class comparison is trickier. Swiss equities and the SWIIT are licensed as far as I can tell, and those are exactly the most interesting parts. I’ll check what’s possible with free data and report back here
Since you seem to like this kind of thing: two other projects I’m working on right now. One is the SNB’s US equity portfolio, what they hold, what they deliberately don’t hold and how it changed over the last ten years. The other is about management transactions at SIX listed companies, so when executives buy or sell shares of their own company. For that one I’m still clarifying with SIX what I’m allowed to publish, so no promises yet
Nice work. Even with AI help, still looks like quite project.
I would be interested in the number of mortgage delinquency and foreclosures. Never seen any data on this other than in the context of US subprime crisis. And then only US data.
In the end the question would be how much risk are the banks taking on for getting 1.56% over the risk-free rate. So in a hypothetical situation with a property valued at 2m and a mortgage of 1m, is there any risk at all that the bank won’t get their money back? Its obviously not zero but probably close to the risk of one our nuclear power plants blowing up:-)
Mit dem Lesen und der Teilnahme an diesem Forum bestätigst du, dass du die Forum-Richtlinien gelesen hast und damit einverstanden bist sowie den Haftungsausschluss auf http://www.mustachianpost.com/de/ akzeptierst.