# Experience with Polymarket? supposedly the "worlds largest prediction market" **URL:** \ **Category:** Investing / Others\ **Created:** [November 7, 2024, 10:34pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/experience-with-polymarket-supposedly-the-worlds-largest-prediction-market/14517 "2024-11-07T22:34:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Butch](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/butch/32/13563_2.png) [@Butch](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Butch)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2024, 10:34pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/experience-with-polymarket-supposedly-the-worlds-largest-prediction-market/14517/1 "2024-11-07T22:34:41Z")
I did a search here and did not find any thread on [Polymarket.com](http://Polymarket.com) Anybody with experience on that investing (or: gambling?) tool and willing to share it? ---
**Author:** ![almi](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/almi/32/13414_2.png) [@almi](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/almi)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2024, 11:25pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/experience-with-polymarket-supposedly-the-worlds-largest-prediction-market/14517/2 "2024-11-07T23:25:11Z")
Looks like gambling yes. Have no experiences, but _if_ I were a gambler, that bet wouldnt sound that bad, would it? Like is there really a 1/25 chance that something happens to Trump until then (only scenario I see that he wouldnt get inaugurated)?! Wild. So ‘safe’ 4% won within 2 months, corresponds to a yearly gain of 24%. 😆 ![1000079210](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/uploads/default/original/2X/d/dbc5775c799d390cbfcb811c8fabaec453d43fd9.jpeg) ---
**Author:** ![PhilMongoose](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/philmongoose/32/12331_2.png) [@PhilMongoose](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/PhilMongoose)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2024, 6:30am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/experience-with-polymarket-supposedly-the-worlds-largest-prediction-market/14517/3 "2024-11-08T06:30:54Z")
But imagine how much more you could make by betting on ‘No’ and investing in a sniper rifle! 😂 ---
**Author:** ![Helix](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/h/e19adc/32.png) [@Helix](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Helix)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2024, 11:22am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/experience-with-polymarket-supposedly-the-worlds-largest-prediction-market/14517/4 "2024-11-08T11:22:48Z")
> [@almi](#): > > Like is there really a 1/25 chance that something happens to Trump until then (only scenario I see that he wouldnt get inaugurated)?! Is that so unlikely? They nearly downed him before. Those odds say in one of 25 worlds someone succeeds. ---
**Author:** ![Butch](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/butch/32/13563_2.png) [@Butch](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Butch)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2024, 5:04pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/experience-with-polymarket-supposedly-the-worlds-largest-prediction-market/14517/5 "2024-11-08T17:04:53Z")
Why gambling? Or, why more gambling-like than the regular stock market? E.g. you can take a position on Polymarket on whether or not Taylor Swift will be pregnant in 2024. Using demographic statistics you can surely make a calculated estimate of whether that will still happen. I read many years ago that sites such as Polymarket are extremely good at predicting events because they attract people who have an edge and have high conviction. The stock market is full with people with opinions but who are not willing to back it up with their $$$ after all. There are also some other interesting opportunities on the site - e.g practically there’s a way to trade derivatives on Bitcoin for example by ‘betting’ on its price in the future. ---
**Author:** ![PhilMongoose](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/philmongoose/32/12331_2.png) [@PhilMongoose](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/PhilMongoose)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2024, 5:58pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/experience-with-polymarket-supposedly-the-worlds-largest-prediction-market/14517/6 "2024-11-08T17:58:03Z")
> [@Butch](#): > > I read many years ago that sites such as Polymarket are extremely good at predicting events because they attract people who have an edge and have high conviction. That’s why people were turning to the betting markets instead of pollsters to understand who was leading between Trump/Harris: they were seen as more reliable. ---
**Author:** ![almi](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/almi/32/13414_2.png) [@almi](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/almi)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2024, 6:49pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/experience-with-polymarket-supposedly-the-worlds-largest-prediction-market/14517/7 "2024-11-08T18:49:29Z")
> [@Butch](#): > > Or, why more gambling-like than the regular stock market? Here you have the house/Polymarket who wins on average (like the green number in roulette). I don’t think you will be consistently smarter than the majority hence in the long term the odds are against you. I also don’t think I’m smarter than majority in the stock market hence I don’t pick individual stocks. But I believe in longterm growth of the market overall (like the green number is in my favor), hence I see a rational reason to invest in it. > [@Butch](#): > > Taylor Swift will be pregnant in 2024. Using demographic statistics If you can bet on that, I would argue it is already ‘priced in’, unless you’re again smarter than the majority. ---
**Author:** ![almi](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/almi/32/13414_2.png) [@almi](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/almi)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2024, 6:55pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/experience-with-polymarket-supposedly-the-worlds-largest-prediction-market/14517/8 "2024-11-08T18:55:04Z")
Well it’s all events combined. The chances of him having a heart attack given his age and health behavior are probably equally likely. ---
**Author:** ![preparations](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/p/67e7ee/32.png) [@preparations](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/preparations)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2024, 7:05pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/experience-with-polymarket-supposedly-the-worlds-largest-prediction-market/14517/9 "2024-11-08T19:05:37Z")
Congratulations, you’re now a list. But to stay on-topic, yes I did some bets for fun on polymarket. Works perfectly fine and I really like the variety of markets that they offer. ---
**Author:** ![Butch](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/butch/32/13563_2.png) [@Butch](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Butch)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2024, 8:06pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/experience-with-polymarket-supposedly-the-worlds-largest-prediction-market/14517/10 "2024-11-08T20:06:08Z")
> [@almi](#): > > If you can bet on that, I would argue it is already ‘priced in’, unless you’re again smarter than the majority. Fair point. Makes you wonder to what extent a market like Polymarket is driven by what would be considered “insider knowledge” on regular financial markets. ---
**Author:** ![nabalzbhf](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/nabalzbhf/32/3277_2.png) [@nabalzbhf](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/nabalzbhf)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2024, 8:09pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/experience-with-polymarket-supposedly-the-worlds-largest-prediction-market/14517/11 "2024-11-08T20:09:31Z")
I think that’s explicitly the goal, “insider trading” is encouraged as it helps getting the right prediction. edit: yesterday’s Money Stuff was about this: [Bloomberg - Are you a robot?](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-11-07/prediction-markets-are-a-thing-now) ---
**Author:** ![Butch](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/butch/32/13563_2.png) [@Butch](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Butch)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2024, 8:13pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/experience-with-polymarket-supposedly-the-worlds-largest-prediction-market/14517/12 "2024-11-08T20:13:15Z")
Holy smokes… quick route to FIRE? I just wonder how much this guy (?) put on the line and where he earned that amount in the first place: " The divergence continued into mid October 2024, showing Trump with 60% odds on October 18. _[The Wall Street Journal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wall_Street_Journal)_ reported the market moves might be a [mirage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mirage) created by four bettors with about $30 million in Trump wagers, though the bets were not necessarily nefarious. The four bettors behaved in similar fashion, leading at least one blockchain analyst to conclude there was “strong reason to believe they are the same entity.” Polymarket initiated an investigation of potential market manipulation for an influence campaign in favor of the [Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_2024_presidential_campaign).[[18]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket#cite_note-18) The company confirmed on October 24 that the four accounts were controlled by one French trader with “extensive trading experience and a financial services background,” finding no evidence of efforts at market manipulation.[[19]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket#cite_note-19) The trader ultimately won $48 million upon Trump’s victory.[[20]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket#cite_note-20)" ---
**Author:** ![nabalzbhf](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/nabalzbhf/32/3277_2.png) [@nabalzbhf](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/nabalzbhf)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2024, 8:17pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/experience-with-polymarket-supposedly-the-worlds-largest-prediction-market/14517/13 "2024-11-08T20:17:13Z")
> Describing himself as a wealthy Frenchman who had previously worked as a trader for several banks, from [https://www.wsj.com/finance/how-the-trump-whale-correctly-called-the-election-cb7eef1d](https://www.wsj.com/finance/how-the-trump-whale-correctly-called-the-election-cb7eef1d) edit: he spent some more money than just on the bet: > In an email, he told the Journal that he had commissioned his own surveys to measure the neighbor effect, using a major pollster whom he declined to name. The results, he wrote, “were mind blowing to the favor of Trump!” ---
**Author:** ![Butch](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/butch/32/13563_2.png) [@Butch](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Butch)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2024, 8:28pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/experience-with-polymarket-supposedly-the-worlds-largest-prediction-market/14517/14 "2024-11-08T20:28:34Z")
Thanks for that @nabalzbhf Wow, that’s an extreme form of information arbitrage and disqualifies the competence of a lot of polling firms ---
**Author:** ![nabalzbhf](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/nabalzbhf/32/3277_2.png) [@nabalzbhf](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/nabalzbhf)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2024, 8:30pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/experience-with-polymarket-supposedly-the-worlds-largest-prediction-market/14517/15 "2024-11-08T20:30:48Z")
You play the game differently when you have skin in the game 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Butch](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/butch/32/13563_2.png) [@Butch](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Butch)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2024, 9:19pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/experience-with-polymarket-supposedly-the-worlds-largest-prediction-market/14517/16 "2024-11-08T21:19:27Z")
In the spirit of helping people achieve FIRE: [How the Trump Polymarket Whale Correctly Called the Election, and Made Nearly $50 Million - WSJ](https://archive.is/VSBcf) Archive.is to the rescue… ---
**Author:** ![PhilMongoose](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/philmongoose/32/12331_2.png) [@PhilMongoose](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/PhilMongoose)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2024, 1:42pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/experience-with-polymarket-supposedly-the-worlds-largest-prediction-market/14517/17 "2024-11-09T13:42:12Z")
I kid here, but I think the risk is under-appreciated. It isn’t just that Trump can be taken out by assassination but also: - Trump dies or has an accident - Biden resigns and Harris is inaugurated as the next president Maybe Biden/Harris should put all their money and then resign and have Harris be inaugurated. That would provide plenty of money for the next campaign… ---
**Author:** ![ChickenFat](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/c/8e8cbc/32.png) [@ChickenFat](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/ChickenFat)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2024, 11:56pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/experience-with-polymarket-supposedly-the-worlds-largest-prediction-market/14517/18 "2024-11-09T23:56:12Z")
> [@PhilMongoose](#): > > Biden resigns or simply dies ---
**Author:** ![ternes11](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/t/cab0a1/32.png) [@ternes11](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/ternes11)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2024, 2:13pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/experience-with-polymarket-supposedly-the-worlds-largest-prediction-market/14517/19 "2024-11-10T14:13:59Z")
Interesting platform, where users create the market. Cool feature to see the orderbook, but I feel that liquidity is rather low, even though volume can be significant. For most bets I looked at, a few $100 move the market by a few %. The french trader was also stuck with his bets, I wonder how he was even able to buy all of his positions. ---
**Author:** ![Butch](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/butch/32/13563_2.png) [@Butch](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Butch)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2024, 4:59pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/experience-with-polymarket-supposedly-the-worlds-largest-prediction-market/14517/20 "2024-11-10T16:59:15Z")
Yeah, the guy made 4 accounts in order to not draw too much attention. I wonder whether some of his bets may have been with himself in order to elevate the perceived volume and pull more people in for him to bet with. [Next page](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/experience-with-polymarket-supposedly-the-worlds-largest-prediction-market/14517.md?page=2)