Dark side of investing: psychological / behavioral aspects

Shhhh… :shushing_face:

Never admit to luck when you score a good guess. :wink:

I couldn’t find it using Google (well, Startpage, really). The results linked to pdfs not accessible in full and there were too many of them (and I wouldn’t have made a random pick that landed on the 6th result, that would have been too many results to choose from).

I can’t recall the exact query I gave to Copilot but it selected 3 freely accessible pdfs. A quick view through them made me think Nofsinger’s made the most sense.

One of the added value of AI that I didn’t use, as illustrated by @Your_Full_Name, is that you can then ask for a summary of the results to help you decide which one is the one you were after (or the one you’d be interested to read if you are searching for material and are short on time).

To be clear, I am also an AI-usefulness-sceptic. I think the biggest problem with AI chats as currently used by most people is the database: plenty of inaccurate or false stuff on the internet, some supported by plenty of people. I think it has marginal uses, like apparently this one, but the cons outweigh the pros by a margin in my opinion.

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I’d argue it is relevant. Nevertheless, a couple of further comments on your original post.

I’m not sure what you mean by ‘shitshow’ exactly but it should be pointed out that the next ATH could be a decade away.

As to the psychological aspect of investing, you cannot think in such short timeframes. Moreover, all equity investors—particularly those investing in the index—should account psychologically for significant drawdowns. Personally, when I invest, I immediately accept that what I invested could have a net liquidation value of 40% at some point in the future. That may be too unpalatable for some. In which case they should in all likelihood review their risk tolerance.

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That could be the moment to consider if one’s capital is better deployed elsewhere…

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I’m sure you do! POTUS behaving like a brat, shitposting 24/7, doing blatant insider trading, shilling crypto, applying nonsensical tariff rates on penguins, threatening to invade a friendly country, need I go on? It’s a shitshow, just because we’ve come to accept it as a new normal doesn’t mean it’s not one.

When you’re not in it for long (merely 4 years for me) there’s no other way (I can find) to future-proof my behaviour, I know this mentality can get me through challenging times and achieve time in the market. I’d started with accumulating funds but after some time I said “yeah screw this” and switched to their distributing versions. That way I had something to look forward to, a little dose of motivation every 3 months - and mind you this was in the raging bull of 2023-2024 - I believe that to achieve anything big what one needs is a long series of small steps forward, and no tumbles.

It was the right decision for me. For my (clearly underdeveloped) brain there’s a massive difference between being -11% and being -12% +1% because the first scenario makes me think “this looks like wishful thinking” and the second makes me think “Ok, it may go down, but I’ll 100% get something I can use out of it”.

It’s not about risk tolerance, even if it sounds like it is, or maybe it is ways of dealing with the risk and the deprivation.

Our understanding of shitshow is clearly different. The things you describe seem fairly run-of-the-mill to me. Events during previous presidential terms were far more injurious but let’s not digress. Do I infer correctly, that you attribute these events as the reason for the recent price action in the markets? I would be inclined to agree that the markets likely reacted to news about tariffs but to divine market movements from political actions is just hazardous. Same goes for monetary policy.

My comment about reviewing risk tolerance was a general one. Considering this comment that you made then it’s clear that you should not be investing in equities at all. Respectfully, you either need to snap out of it or exit the markets asap. As you are accumulating, then you can simply adjust your psychology to see falling prices as an opportunity to lower your cost basis and ultimately acquire more units with higher expected future returns.

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I don’t have much experience in the stock market, but do have 30 years’ experience closely watching world politics, none of this is run of the mill.

Nope, you’re assuming too much, I don’t need to justify or explain myself, but I’ve been building cash since June 2025 for this moment (call it a hunch) and bought more at the April drops. I’ve read the arguments that saving dry powder/buying the dip is a bad idea, but for the same emotional reasons as above it makes me feel good to do it.

Broadly, nobody needs to explain or justify anything they’re doing, or be told what they should do if no laws are broken. We’re exchanging opinions.

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Absolutely. My opinion is that from an investing standpoint, you’re fucked.

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Lighten up, it’s a nice sunny day :slight_smile:

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Since creating this account 4 days ago, you are almost only criticizing (I won’t use a stronger expression) others. Who are you exactly and why do you think you have a right to decide what is right and wrong?

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You’re inclined to agree that it’s likely that the S&P 500 had its worst 4-day drop ever that began the minute Trump announced the highest tariffs since a hundred years ago? What is the reason your confidence in this causation isn’t higher?

Why wouldn’t markets react to political actions when they change the framework the markets operate in? Granted, there are lots of noteworthy news each day and it can be difficult to assess the impact each item might have. But some events are so significant that I don’t see how linking market movements to them can be seen as hazardous.

Where? I’m ready to drive there :joy:

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Can we ban @plymth ?

Yes we can.

It depends a bit. If you compare VWRL (distributing) with VWCE (accumulating), you’ll end up paying the same taxes in Switzerland. Both the distributed and accumulated parts are subject to income tax. As others have mentioned, there’s almost no difference in terms of the fund’s price performance.

Even if you choose VT over BRK.B, your net gain increases with every additional CHF you earn or receive. And let’s be honest - you didn’t have to wake up at 6 a.m. and work hard for that money :grinning_face_with_smiling_eyes:. So, for me personally, dividend ETFs or dividend-paying stocks aren’t necessarily bad; in fact, I find them quite interesting.

I totally get the appeal of dividend ETFs like SCHD, SCHY, CHDVD, or even JEPI. Choosing a distributing ETF over an accumulating one might not be the most rational decision*, but if it makes things easier for you, why not? I also see myself rebalancing my portfolio a bit—maybe adding some gold and a few international dividend ETFs.

Even if you don’t reinvest the dividends, you’re still doing more for your finances than probably 95% of people out there. I know that’s a bold guess, but judging by the average financial knowledge here in Switzerland, I feel pretty confident that it’s not far off :grinning_face_with_smiling_eyes:.

*Accumulating ETFs are time- and cost-efficient in my eyes. They reinvest the dividends without any further costs, compared to manual adjustements.

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While I don’t like the language and disagree with some other statements of yours (e.g. impact of politics in the stock market), I have to admit that I had a similar thought when I read the following:

“Looking at VWCE - the accumulating version of VWRL - this shitshow has set an investor back by a full calendar year. 13 months for VWRL. This feels completely unacceptable to me, really unacceptable. What was the benefit of holding either for these 12-13 months?”

If it really feels unacceptable to someone then I would agree that maybe he should avoid the stock market in the first place! It is fundamental to know that the stock market (even a World ETF) - no matter the reason - is volatile and you will never see a steady ~7% return year after year.

What is also “funny” - though understandable - is that noone complaint about “set an investor forward for 3 years in 2024 or by multiple years the last decade+”

Having said all of these, if a distributed ETF does the psychological trick, then it’s absolutely great!!! Solution found with practically no cost!

Some tips that helped me psychologically so far:

  • I expect to get the average market premium after 10 years. Till then a treat both ups and downs as noise (well I try at least)
  • For that reason, I will decide if I’ll be happy or sad after 10 years :slight_smile:
  • There is probably no better alternative for long term returns than the stock market
  • Parking my savings in a bank or under a mattress is a guarantee that I will lose money
  • Anything above inflation is “free” money - I never worked for this!
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I completely disagree, but the benefit is nobody needs to convince anyone of anything if they aren’t breaking any law.

I’ll argue 'till my last breath that if someone doesn’t have the nerve for that scenario, they should never be investing in stocks, not about the example above.

I will eat some some Greek feta and Kalamata Olives to that :slight_smile:

It seemed to me that the statement about “completely unacceptable++” with regards to the recent volatility had produced already a lot of stress. I suppose it would be even more difficult to continue investing after a crash of 60%.
But OK, let’s not go further. It seems that you have found your secret golden recipe (dividends) :slight_smile: Nothing else to add.

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Puts the monkey in monkey brain :slight_smile: Nice article!