# Coronavirus: when do we reach the bottom of the dip?
**URL:** https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/coronavirus-when-do-we-reach-the-bottom-of-the-dip/3304
**Category:** Investing / Others
**Created:** [February 25, 2020, 6:13pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/coronavirus-when-do-we-reach-the-bottom-of-the-dip/3304 "2020-02-25T18:13:40Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 86
### Author:  [@Bojack](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Bojack)
#### Post date: [March 22, 2020, 12:10pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/coronavirus-when-do-we-reach-the-bottom-of-the-dip/3304/1747 "2020-03-22T12:10:25Z")
> [@arjuno](#):
>
> breakdown of our healthcare system
I keep hearing about this “breakdown”, but wouldn’t it rather be that the healthcare system operates at capacity, so if anything not-corona related happens, there is no bed for you and you have to wait? Assuming there are no new cases, situation will slowly get back to normal once the people in beds recover or, well, die. Breakdown suggests to me, that something stops working completely.
Btw nice site for Switzerland: [http://www.corona-data.ch/](http://www.corona-data.ch/)
This chart does not look good. We’re already at 8 cases / 10’000 people and growing at much faster rate than Italy. In Ticino they’re approaching 30 cases / 10’000.
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### Author:  [@ma0](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/ma0)
#### Post date: [March 22, 2020, 12:38pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/coronavirus-when-do-we-reach-the-bottom-of-the-dip/3304/1748 "2020-03-22T12:38:07Z")
From what I understand the healthcare system should more or less work, at least for accidents. As long as you don’t need to go in a ICU, in that case you might have problems. So you can still have your bike incident if you wish, but not too bad please. 🙂
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### Author:  [@1000000CHF](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/1000000CHF)
#### Post date: [March 22, 2020, 2:37pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/coronavirus-when-do-we-reach-the-bottom-of-the-dip/3304/1749 "2020-03-22T14:37:52Z")
In Lombardy the operation of hospital departments not related to covid is minimised, everything gets postponed, etc. All doctors look after severe covid patients. It’s a health care paralysis,not merely ICUs capacity problem.
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### Author:  [@1000000CHF](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/1000000CHF)
#### Post date: [March 22, 2020, 2:38pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/coronavirus-when-do-we-reach-the-bottom-of-the-dip/3304/1750 "2020-03-22T14:38:39Z")
PS. @glina, you’ll like the news, FED will lend 4 trillion dollars to companies:
[https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-will-make-up-to-4-trillion-in-loans-to-businesses-to-rescue-economy-mnuchin-says-2020-03-22](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-will-make-up-to-4-trillion-in-loans-to-businesses-to-rescue-economy-mnuchin-says-2020-03-22)
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### Author:  [@Bojack](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Bojack)
#### Post date: [March 22, 2020, 2:59pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/coronavirus-when-do-we-reach-the-bottom-of-the-dip/3304/1751 "2020-03-22T14:59:23Z")
> [@1000000CHF](#):
>
> It’s a health care paralysis,not merely ICUs capacity problem.
OK, now I get it. Well… let’s all stay healthy and away from hospitals!
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### Author:  [@1000000CHF](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/1000000CHF)
#### Post date: [March 22, 2020, 7:58pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/coronavirus-when-do-we-reach-the-bottom-of-the-dip/3304/1752 "2020-03-22T19:58:40Z")
Look how overworked are Italian doctors and nurses:
[https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story\_fbid=2821602784625644&id=188144997971449](https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2821602784625644&id=188144997971449)
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### Author:  [@nugget](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/nugget)
#### Post date: [March 22, 2020, 8:34pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/coronavirus-when-do-we-reach-the-bottom-of-the-dip/3304/1753 "2020-03-22T20:34:16Z")
> [@Bojack](#):
>
> So paying, I don’t know, 600 CHF per year extra to have a priority in case of shortage of beds could make sense
I think i would be utterly wrong if the money you put on the table had any decisive power in these matters
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### Author:  [@Bojack](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Bojack)
#### Post date: [March 22, 2020, 10:00pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/coronavirus-when-do-we-reach-the-bottom-of-the-dip/3304/1754 "2020-03-22T22:00:18Z")
> [@nugget](#):
>
> I think i would be utterly wrong
After the discussion we had, I would have written it differently. I wonder what people can do during peaceful times to prepare for the bad times. How can we learn from this crisis?
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### Author:  [@nugget](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/nugget)
#### Post date: [March 22, 2020, 10:16pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/coronavirus-when-do-we-reach-the-bottom-of-the-dip/3304/1755 "2020-03-22T22:16:08Z")
> [@Bojack](#):
>
> I wonder what people can do during peaceful times to prepare for the bad times.
That is a most fundamental question. some answer it by being agnostic, others by becoming preppers.
From the medical perspective, i am quite curious how governments adjust policy to face future pandemics. There is that clear conflict of interest from the medical and the economical point of view: Keeping a Health system (and society in general) better equipped for a pandemic is more costly. On top of that, there is the interest of getting re-elected.
Many things will only be learnt in hindsight, but already know there are some lessons learnt:
- in case of crisis, today’s nations/ governments fight for themselves, eventually at the expense of other nations. See the (by now relieved) blockage of transportation of medical supplies from Germany to Switzerland.
- The western world has no functioning early response to pandemic outbreaks, and no coherent or organized answer to a pandemic.
- the economic cost of a pandemic that was not contained is substantial.
- …
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### Author:  [@pandas](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/pandas)
#### Post date: [March 22, 2020, 11:39pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/coronavirus-when-do-we-reach-the-bottom-of-the-dip/3304/1756 "2020-03-22T23:39:45Z")
This just in: S&P500 futures market opened and immediately hit -5%. S&P at 2173!
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### Author:  [@Bojack](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Bojack)
#### Post date: [March 23, 2020, 5:18am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/coronavirus-when-do-we-reach-the-bottom-of-the-dip/3304/1757 "2020-03-23T05:18:26Z")
> [@pandas](#):
>
> S&P500 futures market opened and immediately hit -5%.
USA recorded 14’000 cases in one day and in just 3 days they will surpass China, so it’s not a surprise.
Plus, maybe they contributed a little?
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### Author:  [@pandas](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/pandas)
#### Post date: [March 23, 2020, 6:25am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/coronavirus-when-do-we-reach-the-bottom-of-the-dip/3304/1758 "2020-03-23T06:25:23Z")
> [@Bojack](#):
>
> USA recorded 14’000 cases in one day and in just 3 days they will surpass China, so it’s not a surprise.
Are you living under a rock? This is kind of expected and is not what’s crashing the market, not directly at least. Wall street doesn’t give a fuck about how many people die and it’s still not that much anyway compared to other major causes of death.
The bad news this weekend are Fed hinting at **-50% GDP and 30% unemployment in the US in Q2**. Now that’s a surprise.
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### Author:  [@glina](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/glina)
#### Post date: [March 23, 2020, 6:30am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/coronavirus-when-do-we-reach-the-bottom-of-the-dip/3304/1759 "2020-03-23T06:30:26Z")
> [@pandas](#):
>
> The bad news this weekend are Fed hinting at -50% GDP and 30% unemployment in the US in Q2.
Year on year earnings per share have been working for SP500
> **[S&P 500 Earnings - 90 Year Historical Chart](https://www.macrotrends.net/1324/s-p-500-earnings-history)**
>
> This interactive chart compares the S&P 500 index with its trailing twelve month earnings per share (EPS) value back to 1926.
Since nobody knows where exactly EPS ends up and what P/E ratio the market settles for, make your pick:
Historical average P/E is 15, but the market may overshoot in crisis. -20 to -25% EPS drop seems to be the consensus. I really hope I get a chance to buy around 2000pts 🙂
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### Author:  [@Bibi4](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Bibi4)
#### Post date: [March 23, 2020, 6:39am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/coronavirus-when-do-we-reach-the-bottom-of-the-dip/3304/1760 "2020-03-23T06:39:30Z")
This guy seems to concur that we have some drop ahead
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### Author:  [@nabalzbhf](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/nabalzbhf)
#### Post date: [March 23, 2020, 7:18am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/coronavirus-when-do-we-reach-the-bottom-of-the-dip/3304/1761 "2020-03-23T07:18:00Z")
> [@pandas](#):
>
> The bad news this weekend
Also the relief package not going through the Senate.
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### Author:  [@dbu](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/dbu)
#### Post date: [March 23, 2020, 7:23am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/coronavirus-when-do-we-reach-the-bottom-of-the-dip/3304/1762 "2020-03-23T07:23:30Z")
Just another manic (panic) Monday… 🎶
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### Author:  [@1000000CHF](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/1000000CHF)
#### Post date: [March 23, 2020, 8:41am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/coronavirus-when-do-we-reach-the-bottom-of-the-dip/3304/1763 "2020-03-23T08:41:40Z")
> [@Bojack](#):
>
> > [@Bojack](#):
> >
> > So paying, I don’t know, 600 CHF per year extra to have a priority in case of shortage of beds could make sense
>
> I think i would be utterly wrong if the money you put on the table had any decisive power in these matters
Well, it could be even more arbitrary then deciding on who pays more - in Spain they’ve update triage (respirators shortage guidelines) and they asked the doctors to take into account person’s “social value”. What the f\*\*\* does it even mean?
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### Author:  [@Bojack](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Bojack)
#### Post date: [March 23, 2020, 8:46am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/coronavirus-when-do-we-reach-the-bottom-of-the-dip/3304/1764 "2020-03-23T08:46:14Z")
> [@1000000CHF](#):
>
> take into account person’s “social value”. What the f\*\*\* does it even mean?
I totally agree with your point, but somehow it’s really controversial to discuss this and I don’t need the extra stress right now 🙂
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### Author:  [@1000000CHF](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/1000000CHF)
#### Post date: [March 23, 2020, 8:49am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/coronavirus-when-do-we-reach-the-bottom-of-the-dip/3304/1765 "2020-03-23T08:49:06Z")
> [@Bojack](#):
>
> After the discussion we had, I would have written it differently. I wonder what people can do during peaceful times to prepare for the bad times. How can we learn from this crisis?
I think we’ll all be better prepared - first, more people understand that they shouldn’t fuck around during epidemic, second, government will adopt measures from Taiwan (system of early detection, contact tracing, forceful isolation, and all that epidemiologic inteleligence). Most likely government should prepare themselves to scale the laboratory tests better and pump up production of medical devices quickly. And it’s a good thing because it could have been much worse - there’s for example a strain of bird flu that is not yet transmittable by humans (it will be in in the future with new mutations), that spreads as quickly as corona and has case fatality rate 60%. Otherwise animals have 1.6 mln viruses that theoretically could mutate and get transmitted to humans - one of them could be deadly for humanity.
That’s why visionary Bill Gates was warning us before:
[ ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Af6b_wyiwI)
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### Author:  [@ma0](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/ma0)
#### Post date: [March 23, 2020, 8:50am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/coronavirus-when-do-we-reach-the-bottom-of-the-dip/3304/1766 "2020-03-23T08:50:27Z")
One sure thing is that after all this there must be a big change in cultures:
- “Westerners”: if you are sick, do wear a mask. (It might be enforced with random check? at pharmacies. Dumb.)
- “Some Asians”: Stop eating random animals (let’s add stop eating sharks/elephants and believe that eating some piece of bone of endangered animals will help). I’d add stop leaving meat under the sun, but apparently this isn’t really that bad as long as it’s done “properly”.
Both are really hard to learn/enforce, imho.
bonus: maybe we should also start to wear masks in case of pandemics…
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