So what is the consensuses here about the invasion of Taiwan?
Can’t speak for a consensus - but most probably just a matter of time.
China may take it slow though, to gradually increase their military power and foothold in the South China Sea (establishing marine bases).
I think it will heavily depend on how the US and Europe will proceed with Russia. If sanctions stay at such a low level, if they will be even lifted after an agreement was found, if companies come back to Russia etc. - in short - if the price is relatively affordable, Taiwan will be made a second Tibet.
If they notice now that Russia will be driven into total isolation, very hard sanctions over decades, cut off from international business, companies and investors stay away from Russia for decades, etc. they we might be able to deter China from attacking Taiwan. I think it will really depend on the wests long-term reaction on Russia.
That’s why a merciless response to Russia is now absolutely essential, otherwise invading and annexing other territory will become fashionable again.
Now what do we make of this? (paywalled)
Flights get cancelled. Let’s see if there are ripercussions for that.
I find it strange that they are doing drills in someone’s else airspace.
That’s the point: it’s their (China’s) own airspace.
According to their own view of the world, that is.
Also, Taiwan is a country that isn’t officially recognised to begin with.
The biggest and most powerful countries that officially recognise Taiwan and their sovereignty are Paraguay, Haiti, Honduras, Guatemala, Eswatini and Belize. Plus another half dozen micronations. Everyone else only recognises the PRC.
I’m surprised that there hasn’t been much (any?) market reaction to the military drills and apparent escalation. E.g. TSMC which is based in Taiwan is up today. Have I missed something?
They are building in the US and the whole thing is just a show.
Now I feel dumb for asking