I totally agree. An army without morale - even with the best tech in the world - is not an army, it’s military personnel delivering free equipment to occupational forces. And I have an impression that without Americans, we are going to be at mercy of these kind of armies.
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I think part of the lack of support is lack of material means for that support. Europe may have high-tech weapons, but in very small quantities. Some figures pop up here and there. For instance, official estimates in France about ammunition is that they would last for 3 or 4 days if there was a war…
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Yes, they have neither political will, nor actual ammo in the stores. It’s ridiculous but Europe during the last 30 years basically downscaled so much of its military expenditures (to increase it on welfare obviously) that it’s hardly able to defend itself at this point. We all fell into the illusion of the End of History, and we thought that we can free-ride on US military budget forever - and now we are paying the price for our naivete and cynicism.
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I believe the sanctions will have a big impact on the will of the Russian people too given time. It seems there is some determination in NATO countries to keep them long term. A big doubt is whether we will have done enough to find alternative energy sources before winter.
Another worry is US 2024 election and Trump with his USA first / discredit NATO / Putin is smart agenda. If he gets in despite the Capitol riots, well that could really be something that changes the world…
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Even if true, I guess you didn’t get what I was saying. I said that Europe will try to avoid conflict at all cost. Russia steps into the Baltic countries? The EU will issue some angry resolutions and directives. One EU country is unwilling to die for another EU country, especially with nuke threats. The unity of the EU is fragile and will surely get tested by Russia.
I’m sure that Russia didn’t expect that Poland will show as much help to Ukraine as they did. Also, remember how they imported thousands of refugees to Belarus so that they would storm the Polish border? It was clearly done to make Poland even more disapproving of accepting refugees. But that plan didn’t work, the fake refugees were stopped at the border.
I can only hope that because Poland and Germany are such close economic partners, the German business owners will put pressure on German politicians, when push comes to shove. The question is what has bigger value to Germans: Russian oil & gas or Polish trade?
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I give very low probability of nuclear war and bit higher for World War 3. However, I’m afraid that Molotov-Ribbentrop pact (not in exact same terms) is destined to repeat if things really go sour.
EU is economical project and if there is no economic benefit, no EU country will step in to defend other EU country. US/GB just plays geo-political game and will step in actively only if there is clear chance to come out victorious.
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In Poland in 1939 the same thing was being told about Hitler - government back then was even confiscating newspapers writing “panicky” articles. The argument was that we had powerful allies - guarantees of security from France & UK - so Germany cannot be so insane to start war with everybody.
If they are not stupid then why they started war against Ukraine with so little troops? I personally think they are both stupid and fanatically imperialistic.
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I would not make that mistake to underestimate them. They are in power since nearly 20y, you can’t do that while being stupid.
About how they could do such a miscalculation there has been plenty of analysis :
- worked fine in Chechnya, Georgia, Syria, Ukraine in 2014. To keep the analogy with WW2 going (which in my point of view is a total oversimplification), Western powers did the same mistake of appeasement. Again, total oversimplification of a complex subject.
- the yay sayers who are promoted and which can be seen in a lot of autocratic governments. There was a real belief that Ukrainian population would wave at Russian troops and Ukrainian army would fall into disarray. On the other hand Ukrainian army managed since 2014 to organise in a way that even Western Militaries are in awe (efficient combined armed organisation etc.). To manage
- corruption which is wanted (because it is easier to get rid of someone - meaning loyalty of your top managament since they are always at risk to get exposed), but which went out of control.
Actually Hitler was pretty convinced that France and GB would not intervene at all, and pretty angry about it when they declared war on Germany after the 3rd of September.
EDIT : little add-on, the underestimation of smallish military forces and the miscalculation of forces needed is not only seen in Russia. Just thinking Vietnam (3 times), Afghanistan (3 times), Iraq… Between conquering a country and controlling it, there is a long way.
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Ok, you’re probably right - stupid is not an accurate word, perhaps they are too self-confident and too self-assured.
I agree with all your comments except this one. I mean I share your sentiment but aren’t you afraid that the dissolution of the EU would lead to nationalistic-protectionist policies (like e.g. Front National would love)? Although as a decentralist libertarian, I’d prefer a free trade agreement - my impression is that the realistic political choice is between EU vs nationalism, protectionism and hard borders in Europe. Good example is Brexit - Britain is historically one of the most free-trading country in the world, but yet after leaving trade relations with Europe is a one huge mess. Most Europeans hate free-trade and the only reason why they accept it is that they support it as a package deal called ‘European Union’.
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Also the next president might have a very different take on helping Europe against Russia.
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I think the EU is (also) a political project. The European Coal and Steel Community was proposed as a way to prevent future wars between France and Germany. The idea was that integration will stop wars within Europe.
Remember how in WW2, the Germans were defeated with the help of Russians, who then kind of took their place? The West was too exhausted with the war and didn’t want to deal with Russia, so Roosevelt and Churchill signed a deal with Stalin in Yalta, which bought the West some peace, but it de facto initiated the cold war and it set back the Eastern Europe by half a century. Was it worth it? Poland and other countries were betrayed on that day, and had to live in a communist regime, as puppet states.
So today, if we do not react to Russia wanting to annex Ukraine, where will be the point that the West reacts? I wonder…
They don’t have to confront the EU. The EU does not have an army and so it’s only there on paper. When Russia invades Poland, they will invade Poland and not the EU. The other EU states will not be threatened, so why would they even defend Poland?
They’re not stupid. They’re just crazy. They’re psychopaths.
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Russia’s economy is basically a basket case that has been supported by hydrocarbon exports to EU, primarily Germany, which has announced plans to phase it out.
So in the short term Russia is making a fortune but long term and strategically Putin has fecked it up, he miscalculated badly.
Don’t underestimate the impact of middle class Russians being persona non grata in Western Europe. Russians seem to love their western luxuries and holidaying in the Mediterranean as much as the rest of us or even more. For the next few years I expect WE tourism is largely off the table, Russia is viewed by the west as a pariah state like Iran or North Korea
The more bodies get sent home, the more people will question too. Ukraine isn’t going to give in, because they know if they do they face rape / murder / pragmatically subjugation, they now are training and equipping a 1M strong army
So the longer it lasts the worse it potentially gets for Putin. His buddy Bernie Ecclestone said Putin has miscalculated and I think he’s right
I agree Ukraine has probably lost for good much of the now occupied territory as it has been practically ethnically cleansed and bombed to smithereens and it probably won’t make sense for them to fight seriously try to take it back. However the rest of Ukraine now has strong ties to Europe and potential of EU ascension
If that’s true I hope we stop that. But I think a big problem with a they cannot fly to EU states. Unless they transit via eg Serbia which I also hope we stop
Come on! Not a fan of this discussion, but I can add something. You can fly from Russia to Turkey. You can fly from Turkey to Europe. More questions?
You are right, but it also depends on definition economical vs political. For me politics will always be packaging for self serving in terms of money, power, control, let it be security. Would there be political EU union if there would be mentioned benefits (I still attribute them to economical side)? I doubt.
Somehow I feel Putin would be happy to restore old CCCP borders. He even expressed his despair of it’s dissolvement.
And sadly I get feeling that old Europe would only wake up (society and political level) when Russian would absorb Baltics and possibly Poland. For Russians why go deeper where your biggest export/import market is also historic boundries?
Have in-laws in north of Germany so get to travel and hear some talks: they more complain about rising cooking oil price and attribute this to Zelensky demanding weapons to fight Russia. Kinda poking bear… They just are just too self focused, where East Europe for them is uninteresting cheap newcomers.
Ok ok, you can’t judge whole society by small sample, but for me this is quite good litmus test of generic mood. But, can you imagine German living on Baltic see coast cannot tell where Litauen is ? 
Back to question - if Belarus and Ukraine is absorbed then Baltic stats are easy target, my hope is that Poland would be strong enough to fight back. You seem doing pretty well as nation! Also, Poland absorbed by Russia would be too close threat to west Europe, so I guess you would get more support.
But if anything, Wilno nasze
So currently I see west Europe and US just trying to weaken Russia by keeping them involved in prolonged conflict and checking if they can get Ukraine rather “cheap” under influence. But if this fails and big red bear wakes up, doubt that west can respond accordingly. And not that there are no capabilities, but because of fragmentation.
I mentioned Serbia already. Not exactly comfortable or economical to travel like that for the next 10 years but you are correct it is an option. If it becomes mainstream I’m sure it will get looked at
Anecdotally the handful of Russian tourists we’ve run into on our current vacation seem quite meek about talking Russian in public settings, understandably
Though I agree sanctions are not heavily felt by the average Russian citizen, I disagree to the fact that they can travel “as if nothing happened”: travelling got more complicated, slow, and expensive.
Yes, but at a very slow pace, given how much resources they are concentrating on a small front. Might also be a strategy of the Ukrainians to keep them busy in the east while the prepare a counter-attack in the south.
Russian military resources (both men and weapons) seem to be used up fast for something that is not even officially recognised as a war, and here is where hopefully sanctions will be soon felt, when e.g., they can’t buy key parts needed to repair/maintain vehicles.
Given all the hardship we had to go through for the pandemic, I think that we could cut off the gas import to Europe completely. Yes, there would be heavy consequences for some industries and possibly some people would have a cold winter or two, but we showered some people with money in 2020, we could shower some other people in the future.
This paper https://www.econtribute.de/RePEc/ajk/ajkpbs/ECONtribute_PB_028_2022.pdf (have not studied it in detail, nor it’s my field) suggests that if Germany had to give up Russian gas completely, the GDP would decline between 0.5% and 3%, while the pandemic inflicted a decline of 4.5%. My main fear would be the raise of anti-EU/pro-Russia parties/movements, which already are enjoying lots of supporters in some countries.
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Sorry I haven’t read this thread in a while but came across https://twitter.com/waveypossum/status/1547261700210102273 and Nuclear Preparedness PSA (with captions) - YouTube recently.
Let’s hypothize, what actions would you take financially if the US gets hit by a nuclear strike? Sell the whole portfolio? Open some hedge?
Hypothesizing that you are investing in diversified assets among which global stocks with more than just a US based ETF held by a US broker, nothing at all.
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