Clausewitz famously said that war is the continuation of politics by other means. What happened here is that politics, which evidently include tensions, were unnecessarily escalated to an armed conflict.
OK now listen to this, this is rich. So the Americans gave Poland “a green light” to pass their MIGs to Ukraine and they offered to give their jets to Poland. In response, the Polish prime minister publicly made a counter-proposal, that we will pass these MIGs to the Americans and land them in Rammstein base, and they can do what they want with them. The Americans refused this idea, said they will not take this risk, and got angry that they were not first consulted on it. And their media started smearing Poland for “trying to push the US into a military conflict with Russia”.
Are you getting this? Poles pass the migs = good, Americans pass them = too risky. This play by Poland has unmasked the US as a cynical player.
Here’s an old picture but still valid today.
Go on, kick him, I’ll defend you!
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Henry Kissinger once said that “America has no permanent friends or enemies, only interests.”
This is true of every country, it is a fundamental characteristic of human behavior.
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It’s important to point out, that the Americans do not help Ukraine out of emotional or moral reasons. It’s in their own interest. They are afraid of the Russian-Chinese alliance that could rival the US, so they want to weaken Russia.
Just look at what the pentagon press secretary said:
“It is simply not clear to us that there is a substantive rationale for it,” Kirby said. “We will continue to consult with Poland and our other NATO allies about this issue and the difficult logistical challenges it presents, but we do not believe Poland’s proposal is a tenable one.”
The idea as laid out by Poland was too risky, Kirby said, as the US and NATO seek to avoid an outright conflict between the alliance and Russia.
“The prospect of fighter jets ‘at the disposal of the Government of the United States of America’ departing from a U.S./NATO base in Germany to fly into airspace that is contested with Russia over Ukraine raises serious concerns for the entire NATO alliance,” Kirby said.
This makes their initial proposal of Poland giving the MIGs directly to Ukraine grotesque and highly irresponsible. Disgusting stuff.
But the alliance is growing now, so maybe they should have left them taking Ukraine?
As a neutral, I’d say is less risky for everyone if Poland do it rather than the US. Everybody loves Poland and if Russia attacks, they will surely attack Poland first.
Anyway, as usual I give more credit to the stupidity of people rather than malice. Someone at Nato decided, without consulting too much anyone. At this point everyone has to decide if it’s better to play the disinformation/smearing game or not.
Anyway if they are offended, just fly the planes somewhere (Slovakia, Moldova etc) and ask UA to go get them.
For everyone except Poland.
What does that even mean? Don’t be naive.
LOL what are you even saying? Poland should do what the Americans tell them so that they get attacked? I swear, sometimes your logic is beyond me.
OK, maybe you stop giving ignorant tips. Every country that allows these planes to land there, is getting themselves involved. Nobody wants to be #1 target for Russia. Maybe we should take these planes here in Switzerland, what do you say? Seriously…
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Do you think they will attack Germany? How? They will pass over the nearest targets.
It’s about motives. If the US do that, you are going to search for a reason (like selling new planes). If Poland does it, they just want to help a neighbour.
Of course we are talking about two different layers of the situation (don’t know any better word for that). The “love” one is for public relations, so not super important for the war (for now at least). The other is logistical. Sorry if I mixed up and made it confusing.
Anyway I’m with you with the bad communication thing that happened. They should talk together and do what should be done without talking around. Everyone is playing their own game in weird ways (comes to mind Rubio and his tweet)
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Aha, then why didn’t the Americans agree if they have the Polish buffer anyway? No way to know what would Russia do. Why do you even suggest they would attack Germany? If it’s the Americans doing it. I think the problem is that if Poland passed the migs, they would be the obvious target. Could also serve as a lesson for others not to interfere. Even if NATO would step in to defend Poland, our people would die and our cities would get bombarded. Great deal for the Americans to weaken Russia even more.
But if the planes flew from a US-NATO base in Germany, who knows what would Russia do? Maybe they would still attack Poland, maybe someone else? I think NATO does not want to take that risk. And it’s just despicable that they lure Poland into making this foolish step!
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Pretty shameful behaviour by both countries in my opinion. That could’ve been discussed in private. Playing political games in public meanwhile Ukrainians suffer and Putin is laughing
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Ok, makes sense.
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I don’t know about American public opinion but in Europe I have the impression people are willing to endure hardship for moral reasons. If you have a chance watch the speech by Zelenksy to the UK Parliament (described as “Churchillian”)
I saw it, and? Jeez man, this whole UK parliament is theatre. Poland has let in 1.2 million refugees, UK has let in 50. Yet Boris Johnson is flying around Europe and making sad faces. Screw that, man.
I wholeheartedly disagree. If the first party makes a shameful act and you’re forced to react, you’re not responsible. But please, open your eyes, stop being naive. All the emotional speeches and blabla is just theatre, behind the scenes cynical calculations are being made.
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Sorry, I’m not quite following you on this.
Of course the Poles move is all about transfer of risk?! There’s no other practical reason to fly them to a third country’s air base in a fourth country over three times the distance - instead of taking the direct route to neighbouring Ukraine.
Sure. Because Ukraine is Poland’s “backyard”, not the UKs. Poland is taking in refugees from a neighbouring country at war.
Conversely, Poland has not only been reluctant but actively taking a stand against accepting asylum seekers from elsewhere in the world (such as Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan etc.). They’ve fortified their border and actually fought against letting them in.
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While not wanting to go off topic, I would respectfully request that we avoid glorifying a certain ex-british prime ministers name, who, in spite of his “bravery” in leading the uk in WWII, has been well documented post-event as a racist.
If you think these are strong words, please see below links for detailed articles of his racist quotations/beliefs.
Again, apologies for going off topic.
My point is precisely that: even if there is a power game going on and there is hot air from politicians there also seems to be widespread public support for intervention to go further than the current sanctions
People like you and I are angry and the reaction in UK parliament is another data point that others think the same, despite the theatre
Regards USA a survey “reveals that over 75% of Americans demand corporations cut business ties with Russia”.
There is also a name and shame list of companies taking measures. Some companies have further to go or face reputational damage
Net I think there is a strong chance voluntary and enforced sanctions will go further. They will have to stay for a while because it seems Russia is not going to back down in a hurry.
As a side consequence I believe stock markets still have a way to go down. It starts to feel more and more like the big crash we have been talking about since 2008…
[Edit: I still think Poland publishing the statement was petty, however the reaction from Polish citizens to accept refugees is incredible - Poland has been amazing, you should be very proud 
]
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Actually I wonder what happened to the ~2K people from Middle East who were amassed by Belarus on Poland’s border?
I understand that as a Pole this might be annoying to say the least, but (correct me if I am wrong because I have not been reading anything on the subject) my assumption was that Poland would get more advanced jets in returns of their old migs, so in a way being compensated for the risk taken.
Yes of course. But understand this: the Americans made an offer to the Poles, as if the risk was manageable. Once Poland suggested the transfer of risk, the Americans wanted nothing to do with it. If the mighty USA doesn’t want to do it, why would the Poles want to? Only if they were fools or trying to please the US.
Poland is against accepting economic migrants with no education, from incompatible cultures. Once an actual war breaks out in a country which is home to people who live by similar values, they welcome these refugees wholeheartedly.
Yes, I’m in no position to say what value is in new jets minus old jets. But if Russia attacks, the losses in human lives and infrastructure will easily top that.
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True, I didn’t not want to justify anything, only adding one piece to the puzzle (not even being sure the piece fits, TBH).
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Subscribe to read | Financial Times has a bit background, looks like there’s quite some subtleties (e.g. the US wasn’t supportive from the start, even about Poland giving it directly so as not to escalate but they’re getting pressure from congress)