Yes, but for individual investors earning CHF, a weak CHF is not great for buying global funds. Best case for accumulators: bear market with strong CHF.
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I dont get much from that, they dont pay me a higher salary 
But my existing salary having more purchase power affects me directly → I can buy more stocks.
I understand. But SNB needs to think about whole economy. Not support our stock buying power 
I’m considering easing off the gas going forward IF nVidia smashes earnings again. Will still buy systematically but not to the level of the last year which is on the edge of comfort in terms of security reserves and leisure spending. If they don’t smash earnings then either of two things can happen: small correction of 5%, but in my opinion most likely will be people losing their shit and us seeing more than 10% correction. That’d be a good buy signal and also consolidating a 20-10=10% gain to date. I’ll be happy with that.
Well yeah, that’s what you get when you get uneducated (in at least the history of investing), desperate degenerate gamblers and let them loose on stocks. They should have a scoreboard of losses, as well as wins for the sub. No doubt some few people made a killing, while many were the kill.
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I feel rather fine with lots of trend in the portfolio 
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Nvidia.
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Yeah…shocking. Not just the earnings growth but margins. Margins are ludicrous. Seems there was a lot of unloading of nvidia recently (eg by Stanley Druckenmiller), showing even the pros don’t know WTF is going on.
So should I buy TQQQ now?
You know the answer to that 
starts with priced and ends with in
I am actually considering doing the opposite: getting rid of my own XNAS and putting these gains in VWRL.
Nvidia‘s earnings hinge on the AI train trucking along at full speed though. They make these killer earnings because the other big tech companies buy any chip for any money they produce.
Two things could happen that throw a wrench in there:
- AI not playing out as big as currently anticipated
- AMD/Intel getting their shit together and matching Nvidia‘s chips → lower margins and sales.
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It can do a lot with qualitative data analysis and synthesis, that’s the extent of my experience with it at work. Anecdotal, but does do something that helps us.
Do we care though? Someone picking up the money left on the table because nVidia can’t fill all orders, there’s competition bringing prices down etc. Should an index investor care if the index goes up? I personally don’t as long as line goes up, it could be silicon chips, potato chips or poker chips doing it, or burnt baby pandas.
It‘s no doubt going to be a big and useful thing, just how big and useful? I was refer to how crazy the anticipation is right now. Stockmarket is forward looking and currently it expects AI to be the second coming of Jesus Christ himself.
If it‘s only going to be a really good thing, that‘s not enough to justify current valuations of AI companies.
No we don‘t as index investors. This was specifically refer to Nvidia exactly, for discussions sake. I don‘t own single shares.
All good neither do I other than BRK.
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That‘s literally the only single stock I consider ever owning. That tax/expense free pseudo index fund (also private equity exposure), sounds pretty nice.
I just think it has quite a big Buffet premium and the guy is already over 90. They also might start paying a dividend after he passes and they don‘t know what to do with the cash.
Turned out that there is another important milestone has been just reached. But let me tell it in due time.
Buy and hold long term is boring, so there are couple of things that I follow to satisfy my need for action. One is the benchmark of the global stocks market, "MSCI ACWI IMI Net Total Return in CHF” as calculated by MSCI. This year I have started to work with “Landesindex der Konsumentenpreise (LIK)” or “Swiss CPI” and adjust the benchmark for the inflation by dividing its value in CHF by LIK value for the previous month. The goal is to (well, try to) track the change in “purchasing power” of the benchmark rather than its nominal value.
The previous wave’s maximum and a new ATH was reached on 27.03.2024, 2011.59 CHF, +15.7% YTD. Inflation-adjusted, it was still -2% from the previous ATH on 16.11.2021 and 14.8% YTD. All in all, the rally from the 26.10.2023 bottom have brought +25.8% in nominal CHF and +24.9% inflation-adjusted.
LIK for March 2024 came unchanged from the February value, which means that there were no additional pressure on the inflation-adjusted benchmark going into April. It didn’t really matter: there was a substantial decline, first time since 5 months. The bottom on 19.04.2024 was at 1918.69 CHF nominal, -4.6% from the previous top (= ATH). The inflation-adjusted pull-back was the same, and the value at the bottom was -6.5% from the ATH. Still in the “normal market state”.
LIK for April 2024 was 0.37% higher than for March. The carrot has moved farther away from the donkey’s snout.
Now, the important milestone: on 22.05.2024, the benchmark has reached a new ATH at 2062.698 CHF nominal (+18.7% YTD, +7.5% from the previous bottom), and the inflation-adjusted benchmark has also finally marked a new ATH with +17.2% YTD gain, +7.1% from the previous bottom! It took 2 years, 6 month and 4 days, but we are finally there! And we are still riding this wave.
Stay the course.
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Great stuff to put it into perspective. I was hanging by the phone yesterday like a degenerate waiting for “muh gainz” which never came. Staying the course, being paid on Monday and pulling the usual trigger.
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I think this approach makes a lot of sense, especially near to or in decumulation. In early accumulation, I guess you don’t need to care about currency fluctuations or inflation that much, since these tend to even out over decades.
Has LIK moved the needle much?
I’m using a very crude method, just looking at MSCI ACWI IMI in CHF, is this precise enough? https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-profile.html?isin=IE00B3YLTY66#overview For some reason currencies tend ro mess with my brain 
Yeah! It does change the prospective when you get one data point per day.
Completely agree. In the accumulation stage you can just contribute and don’t care about anything else. But I want to explore options and be ready for the consumption phase.
I would say yes. Check the previous “dip” thread, I was posting my notes there.
It is quite good for some quick estimations of nominal changes. Gives now +19.3% YTD. But there is TER, and that one used to have TER of 0.4%.
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And please don’t think that I claim to be very precise in “measuring investment performance”. The index or 2 indices, actually, that I use are well defined and calculated by trusted parties, but what relationship it has to the performance of yours and mine portfolio, is anyone’s guess.
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