Slow start, eh?
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Nah just Santa was drunk.
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Here’s final 2024 Top 20 ETF Leaderboard: $VOO ended w/ $116b which is $65b beyond old record (absurd). $IVV closed strong w $89b (bc used more than $SPY for TLH?). $IBIT took 3rd spot w $37b (still <1yr old!). Total flows at $1.14T, which broke old record by 25%, or $225b…!
(Source)
More inflows to Blackrock’s Bitcoin ETF IBIT than into VTI …
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Anybody got a link to the Greed index? 
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This really feels like the “everything bubble”
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Come on, it’s the first result using a range of search engines provided with the exact terms you’ve used.
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I’m surprised we are only at zero. I thought we’d be at negative expected returns by now.
That looks shitty. But whats the alternative?
Cash? Bonds?
Or we just blow our money now and enjoy our lives.
That probably boosts the company revenues and justifies the valuations 
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People who were invested in S&P 500 during last two years have already achieved 40-50% returns. So I think they should not be surprised if next 10 years are not good.
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I think the only way out is diversification ( asset class & regional)
We don’t know what will happen , so we should assume anything can happen
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Benchmark update! Let’s wrap up 2024 results.
As a benchmark of the global stocks market I use “MSCI ACWI IMI Net Total Return in CHF” as calculated by MSCI. These data can be downloaded from MSCI website using a non-obvious procedure outlined above.
Besides the nominal value, I also look at the inflation-adjusted data. To do the inflation adjustment, I divide the value in nominal CHF by the last known value of “Landesindex der Konsumentenpreise (LIK)” (“Swiss CPI”). That means, to allow “real-time” analysis of data, during a running month I use LIK for the previous month. For the last (week)day of a month, I use LIK for that month. Usually it takes few days to be calculated and published, but this procedure is more consistent with the historical analysis of inflation-adjusted stock market returns. So I effectively do both “real-time” and “historical” analysis in one table.
The exact reference date of LIK that I use is not relevant, because for inflation-adjusted data I only look at relative changes.
LIK status:
LIK for November came -0.2% below the value for October and -0.83% below the peak value for May and June 2024.
LIK for December came unchanged.
The one year inflation for 2024 (change from Dec 2023 to Dec 2024) was +0.65%.
Market Benchmark status:
On 16.12.2024, the benchmark had reached a new ATH in nominal (2213.06 CHF) and inflation-adjusted terms. The YTD gains were +27.3% in nominal and +26.5% in inflation-adjusted CHF.
2024 was finished at the benchmark level of nominal 2178.11 CHF with yearly gains of +25.3% in nominal and +24.5% in inflation-adjusted CHF, -1.6% below ATH.
Stay tuned for the next episode!
元博士
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The USD is just not stopping currently. Absolutely ridiculous. Another 0.5% jump after the job report.
I honestly don’t care much for market volatility, but my paychecks buying me less USD every month is really damn annoying. Double whammy. market getting more and more expensive and my salary paying me even less stocks. Reall not fun combo.
We are now lower than 1 3/4 years ago. In that time USD cash also paid ~9% interest and the CHF ~2%.
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But doesn’t it also mean that your actually portfolio has appreciated in value in CHF terms?
I assume it’s much larger than new contributions.
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Correct.
It is much larger, but not yet at a point where new contributions aren‘t still significant.
But 2/3 of my margin loan is also USD (of course with offsetting assets)
It just feels bad paying into the market with new money.
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<Frivolous Goofy asking the market gods for punishment>
That’s why about 80% of my paycheck now comes in in USD.
Indeed.
Double whammy.
Follow me for more advice on taking unhedged and irresponsible currency risk!
</Frivolous Goofy asking the market gods for punishment>
All meant in jest, let’s not start another hedging vs. not sub-thread, pretty please …? 
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Okay.
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Jurien Timmer of Fidelity:
we remain in the sweet spot of favorable financial conditions and growing earnings. That’s the upper left quadrant of the market cycle clock below. The risk for 2025 is that we move from top left to top right, with earnings growth remaining positive while financial conditions tighten up.
Perhaps the last few weeks of December were already a hint in that direction, with market breadth falling away and only the Mag 7 running the show. If so, rather than expecting a continuation of 2024’s “bullish broadening” momentum, perhaps in 2025 we should look for a repeat of 2018 (growing earnings and rising rates) or even 2023 (narrow absolute and relative leadership).
(Source)
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I wonder how they measure financial conditions. I didn’t think that financial conditions were very tight over the past few years.
I feel the trace should be substantiallly offset leftwards.
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oh what a thread I missed 
so just making this pointless comment to follow
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