Chronicles of fat years [2024-2027 Edition]

At 5-10%, they will. Though at 5-10% portfolio allocation, I’d question how much difference they‘ll make to your overall portfolio (and its performance), even if they do overperform?

That said, a crash and valuation adjustment is something else than securities being sanctioned.

KBA and KWEB and maybe china etfs in general seem to swing wildly over 3-4 year periods. Either it’s the next big thing or total disaster - going by the western news media over last 7-8 years. Never in between.

So the ~10% can give outsized returns (my assumption looking at past swings) and given the low levels today.

As for the situation of securities being sanctioned I think we’ll be in a very different world by that time and the darlings of US megacaps sitting atop VT holdings (and frankly any portfolio) suffering badly.

Any comparison to Russian equity sanction / confiscation is imho misleading.

Screw it. Decided to cut my EM allocation in half. Complete waste of money for the last 5 years.

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To what %? In the Boglehead subreddit the VXUS zealots always parade EMs’ outperformance in the 00s, the more I looked at EMs the more I felt it’s a bet more than anything.

Caveat, the last 5-10 years were so heavy on growth and US that it’s probably unlucky/unfair timing. Having said that I have 0% specifically allocated to EMs, whatever is in my all-world funds is good enough for me. I prefer factor investing for my long-term bets.

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Bullish signal for EM :stuck_out_tongue_closed_eyes:

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Not far from truth - IEMG is the only green row today in my portfolio.

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From 7.4% down to around 3.6%. Not looking back now :smiley:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4680917-no-matter-what-fed-does-lack-of-bears-worrisome

It’s getting dangerous now.

with so many people bullish and already invested, it’s easy to get the opposite effect. Any unexpected event could trigger a lot of those already invested to begin to sell. This is the strange world of how contrary opinion works and shows why, at times, investing can be so contradictory.

I feel that all it takes is nVidia reporting 4.9 bazillion earnings instead of 5.0 bazillion for kids to start throwing their toys out the pram.

Love humanity, hate people…:wink:

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Or US inflation to raise 0.1% more than it was expected.

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(post deleted by author)

How do the expert describe the situation right now?

There is a resistance around 109-110 for VT

:slight_smile:

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Not sure if you’re being sarcastic or serious!

Not seeing a good reason to change anything to be honest, will keep buying.

No, sarcastic would be too much. Semi serious, since I don’t understand much of this. I get that something about group psychology and stuff, but it’s hard to believe that in this example the price is dictated by that. I’m open to learn about it if you know more about it. (we might split on another thread)

I don’t, resistance is recently more of a crypto term, manipulated foofoo market and all that, that’s why I wondered if it was serious or not :slight_smile:

Apparently it’s not for crypto only

I’ve heard the term in the context of technical chart analysis. To me, it’s like the astrology of financial analysis.
Well, it’s the year of the dragon, so I keep my fingers crossed
(I acutally do, but there’s sarcasm involved)

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I wouldn’t apply technical analysis to the current situation: the US inflation and FED rate expectations (revised upwards for both) seem to bear much impact on the current slight withdrawing of the market.

I’d consider it on the level of “reading the cards” in that there’s a good amount of psychology involved too. The idea being that there are market participants willing to buy or sell a stock at different price levels that may look like a trend. There’s a good bit of gambling mentality involved too, in the “dealing with weighted scenarios and playing the odds” meaning of the term.

The big caveat is that resistance/support levels hold until they don’t, and most social media “technical analysts” fail to properly indicate that. If you’re not positioned properly when a stock moves significantly upward or downward because you thought you were at a “resistance” or “support” level and put all your chips on that, you stand to loose biggly, no mater if you were right 99% of the time.

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bear? Everyone sell!
:smiley:

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