Chronicles of fat years [2024-2027 Edition]

Market is still 2.7% below all time high. So you are still in time to buy the dip :slight_smile:

Reference -: SSAC.SW

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Today was first day since long time when VXUS significantly outperformed VTI.
Remember remember 26 September

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The market is always weird. There are too many people to whom it should adapt in order to screw us all by a few % on the date that we buy/sell. Truth is, we can’t expect to buy/sell only at the best moments and some tolerance for variations has to be acknowledge in order to live with investments in stocks. It could be way more wild than it is now.

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is there any obvious reason for this? USD is not down significantly against other currencies so it isn’t that foreign earnings are being priced as higher in USD terms

Today multiple regions were up

Japan
Europe
China
India

I think major impact came from China stimulus which also lifted the Hang Seng and helped Europe too.

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Too bad.
Index investors who know they can’t time the market or beat the market were not able to time the market to beat the market :slight_smile:

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China’s Powell pump now goes brrrr :grin:

You should know it doesn’t matter though.

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Speaking of China …

Check out the returns on the MSCI India stock market index vs the MSCI China index since 1993.


(original source)

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Complete noob here and therefore my question could be silly: How can this be? Isn’t china the second largest economy in the world? Is it to do with the fact that a lot of things are nationalised? Or because foreign investors are not allowed?

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I have been looking at the Indian market for a while, it’s always (supposedly) too overpriced, though.

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Not that I understand anything in this space, but first I would say

economy ≠ stock market

I fetched the graph from the Bloomberg Five Things to Start Your Day newsletter yesterday where Joe Weisenthal wrote (skip to the 5th paragraph if you don’t want to read the entire thing, highlighting mine):

Chinese stocks have lost you money over the last 30 years, while Indian stocks have given you a gigantic return, at least according to these particular indexes. We all know about the recent struggles of the Chinese economy, but… it’s still pretty weird.

Both economies have grown a lot over this time, but China in particular has been one of the most extraordinary economic development stories of all time. And these days, it’s non-stop news about how various Chinese companies are at the leading edge of technological development in areas like batteries and EVs.

On the Odd Lots podcast today, Tracy Alloway and I talk to NYU professor Vivek Chibber about economic development and industrial policy. Chibber is the author of, among other books, Locked In Place, which looks at the comparative economic histories of India vs. Korea, and why the latter has seen so much economic success relative to the former in terms of moving up the wealth latter and building cutting edge industries.

There are a lot of things that have to go right for industrial policy to work. But one of his key contentions is that if the state is going to direct money to certain industries (give them money for free) then the state needs to be strong enough to guarantee that the money goes to actual investment, rather than into the hands of shareholders. A state that doesn’t have this power over its capitalist class isn’t going to see the industrial success that it aims for.

With this in mind, it’s not hard to reconcile the performance of Chinese industry vs. the performance of the stock market. Companies that are incentivized to constantly invest, constantly build new factories, constantly hire more people, and constantly spend more on R&D are going to be companies that don’t return a lot of cash to shareholders. The economy can enjoy the fruits of higher productivity without it necessarily benefitting investors. Maybe one day the leading Chinese companies will enjoy monopoly-like profits in certain industries, and then one day maybe a ton of cash will flow to investors, but right now the story has been non-stop building.

Anyway, it’s interesting thinking about the US right now, where we’re trying to mimic China, or at least follow China, in certain industries. Our companies have a long history of prioritizing shareholder returns. Stocks that keep going up are important for management. And activists are likely to punish companies that go too long without the line going up. I guess over the next few years we’ll see the degree to which the push for more competitive investment can be reconciled with shareholder demands to grow profits.

It was a fascinating chat with Chibber. Find it on Apple, Spotify, or elsewhere.

I started looking the MSCI EM index the other day and don’t think I came across one single Indian company that wasn’t overpriced.

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Yeah…I said “supposedly” above because it has given good returns going back 10 years (though I know that it’s not either or regarding pricing and P/E and performance). The issue I had is that ETFs tracking the Nifty 50 are expensive and also weirdly lag their benchmark by a lot. Plus nearly 25% of the whole index is 5 banks…bit like Greece. Plus I have a couple of Indian friends who say “don’t even dare to look towards the Indian market” which is what I say about the Greek market so I follow even if only because I’ve said the same myself for my country :wink:

https://www.ishares.com/us/literature/fact-sheet/indy-ishares-india-50-etf-fund-fact-sheet-en-us.pdf

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Probabaly due to the weird capital gains tax stuff on Indian stocks/funds investing in Indian stocks.

Additionally to what has already been said:
Chinese companies have been diluting their stocks a LOT. Meaning they are constantly issuing new shares to gather new capital and reducing the current shareholders ownership of the companies asa result.

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In other news …

What dip?

Here’s me patiently waiting for it.

So you are the guy that spends millions in rubber bands and lose also millions because of rats?
:smiley:

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I’m also responsible for the entire hippo population in the river near my former estate.

The rats actually cost me billions … I think … I lost count TBH.

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I forgot the hippo thing. :slight_smile:

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Oh, hey, I forgot to mention this earlier … if you need anything, just DM me.

“Medicaments”, hippo steaks, whatever.

I’ve got the best prices.

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With latest PCE numbers, it looks like more cuts ahead, so no surprises there.

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