SP500 at 6000 by the end of the year?
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Getting paid on Monday with the difference being I am expecting a few thousand more than usual due to some delayed additional payments from Jan-Mar, having a debate between adding my usual or plugging the extras too… Likely will plug the extras too!
I wonder what gave it away … was it most major stock indices beating their all time records? 
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We will know it when the tide will retreat.
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Yeah, but how meaningful are these results?
What’s your definition of a fat year? Just checked, my portfolio is around +15% this year, but to be memorable and label it the fat years, I’d like to see +30%. Per year, of course 
Oh, just “above average”. And the average seems to be around 4-5% above inflation…
Hey, you should check your computer security settings.
A prepress proofing chapter from the first edition of the Chronicles Of Fat Years [2024-2027] seems to have just been leaked to the Intertubes …
(Source: @TCSconsulting on Twitter)
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While I would love to see 2024-2027 being somewhere between 10-20%/year, it might harm my longterm goal.
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This time it’s different, though.
(I’ll see myself out)
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Is that because you’re accumulating? If so I’m having the same thoughts due to sequence of returns risks.
Yes. Too many gains too soon.
The interesting thing is that, at least on a very short duration, Europe, Small Caps and Emerging Markets started to Beat US Large Cap. If we have a strong, multi-year bull run, I feel it would be outside those markets that did well the last few years…
These years, I am both investing all savings surplus, and I am DCAing in a some excessive Emergency Fund Balances. The DCAing is essentially set up to last 5 years (started in July ‚22) and I now feel that I may take a few months out from the back and do an additional one-off invest end of March. Usually, these thoughts are not a good sign and a counter indicator…
Funny. I thought about droping EM alltogether.
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Yeah, best thing we can do is build more safety nets to avoid having to sell at a loss via a flash crash and protracted sideways market, or even worse, slow grinding crash.
Of course diversification will always help.
So did I… plan was to going forward simply not invest more in EM. Logic is that China is corrupt and Growth happened outside of share markets, India had conviscatory taxes and most other EMs are just bad to terrrible investments.
But was very surprised when I prepared my re-balancing and saw that things are changing. Didn’t see Small Caps, Europe and Emerging marktes heavily up (vs. World) in a long time. But this is only a very short term view - time will tell if it will hold…
My EM allocation is already down to 7.4% (overall including 3a). It was initially at 12% when I started investing ~5 years ago. Most of this decline is due to its poor performance compared to the developed markets, especially the US.
I just can‘t see how EM stocks could outperform US stocks in the next 1-3 decades. But I also don‘t want to decrease my diversification and sell low.
Cortana indicator alert!
I’ve been doing the opposite. I had almost no exposure to EM and recently have been adding as EM is out of favour compared to the US and ratios of EM vs US valuations are a bit out of whack. Understandably due to negativity on HK and China and bullishness on US Tech/AI.
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That‘s my thought as well actually. A prolonged bear market would be way more beneficial actually for me (granted it‘s not an economic crisis where I lose my job), as I‘m still relatively early in accumulation.
Even mire bloated valuations are actually very bad for compounding. Expected returns are already pretty depressed at the moment.
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