I was wondering if someone created ETF to ride this and guess what? Google “Trump ETF”.
If I think about the headlines, I would assume that my portfolio would have been decimated since the start of the year.
I just checked and not only is it at an all time high, it has made 75% of the gains of 2025 already. At this rate, it will have made the whole of 2025 gains in the first month of 2026. 
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For people who don’t have the time or skills to build their own trading strategy: any active funds you would recommend?
Sorry, kind of off topic. And I am by no means an expert in that field.
I think active funds are still worse than ETF in general.
There are mechanical indices and and ETF on those may be the second-best option and a method with rebalancing that does not take much time or skills.
I did recommend to a friend 76% SCHD, 4% REIT and 20% Nasdaq. Then rebalance every 7 months. You can do 6 months, 7 is just to avoid seasonality. If you already own private real estate, leave out REIT and go 80% SCHD.
The Nasdaq100 is a mechanical index, but as it is market cap weighted it has the same problems as the SP500. Therefore only 20%. SCHD is based on the Dow Jones U.S. dividend 100 index. The position size is based on market cap too but with a upper limit and a limit per sector.
This is my very personal view, I don’t invest that way!
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In meantime, Gold crossed 5000 USD and now 5 yr returns on Gold are more than Bitcoin. Who would have thought
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My brain keeps taking me back to Japanese bond yields.
3 month yields have were negative for years, but in 2024 went from negative to zero to slightly positive, say around 0.2%. In 2025, they went from 0.2% to around 0.6%.
Today they stand around 0.8%. Across the yield curve the same story plays out: going from negative or low and rocketing up in the last few years.
Does this presage the unwind of the carry trade? Would this lead to a mass sell-off in global assets? Why would a Japanese investor now want to own USTs instead of JGBs?
CHF is going to the moon 
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USD dropping to hell, every other asset wins against it.
Btc feels safer right now…
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Any specific reason you can see for the drop of the USD vs other major currencies today? The FOMC press conference should be tomorrow and I haven’t really seen anything out of their ordinary from the Trump administration.
There is a worry that Japanese investors might move to Yen vs USD and there is some discussion about intervention (not sure whose) + looming government shutdown again
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What’s the bet for 2026 in terms of US outperforming vs underperforming EM and Dev world ex US?
will 2026 continue the 2025 trend or 2025 would prove to be an aberration. ? So far EXUS and EM are winning in 2026
I thought about the Yen carry trade but the move accross currencies seems pretty homogenous, shouldn’t the Yen strenghten more than others if it was that?
The US government shutdown seems to be a result of the murder of Alex Pretti by border patrol agents in Minneapolis on Saturday. Shouldn’t the drop have happened yesterday if it was that? Or are the markets really that blind and delayed with regards to the consequences of the news?
No idea why the delay. But those are the reasons I heard. To be honest it could very well be about something else like Iran or whatever.
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At this point I am ready to believe the stock market is fake. The collective genius of people working hard, outperformed by a non-yielding rock.
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Hahaha, thanks for the good laugh :).
I needed that 
…
I recently lost my crystal ball, such bad timing. Please tell me, if you/anyone has an answer ;).
Jokes aside…I kinda am sceptical that the US will perform equally well as last year (my reference is MSCI USA with + 17 % in USD in 2025).
–> I think some effects of the tariffs will have a negative impact in 2026
–> stock was increased before goods got more expensive. They are now depleted.
–> Most investments that were made 2025 in the US economy was due to AI (data centers, energy). Bubble?
–> Jobmarket is not weak but it got worse in 2025. There are no positive signs/policies that it should get better
–> consumer spending in the US was not bad in 2025 but a lot of surveys point out some people in the US are under financial strain. Most of the spending apparently comes from high income / wealthy individuals. IF infaltion and unemployment picks up, spending will go down.
–> Most of the countries in the world are pissed at the orange and are looking for other trade partners. Companies are delaying or canceling investments in the US because of uncertainty. Only 3 more years…
That said, I am mainly in VWRD with a 17 % SLICHA home bias.
It might be useful if you separate the tech stocks and Mag7 from the rest of the S&P500. If you look at them separately, you might see something different as they moved very differently the last 20 years and when people look at SP500, they are looking at the combination of 2 things that are behaving very differently.
Plan is to continue building home bias, seeing it as a bond of sorts, think I’ll do that for at least half of 2026, then back to VWRL.
Well, they did add fuel to the fire though.
https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-says-value-dollar-is-great-2026-01-27/
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