Impact of Bessent’s jaw-boning fading fast. Maybe it did more harm than good: failed to manage the long term rates, but re-ignited the debasement trade.
It’s a finger in the dike, but you’re in a world of rising interest rates, fiscal profligacy and above-target inflation, and frankly the US has been an outperformer compared with other countries’ bond markets
You say it’s “fading fast” but USDCHF (and, by extension, my spreadsheet) is still down a bunch over the last five days!
Impact on the long end of the rates is fading.
The impact on USD will be long lasting: hence the debasement trade.
Btw I suspect they might not care too much about long term impact, but it might be an election play.
The mortgage rates are benchmarked on those long dated bonds, so they might be thinking about electorate reaction there if the mortgate rates do go down (they’ve been pretty high for a while, contributing to the increased cost perception).
Similar to the move today where they’re dropping tariffs on beef import to try to lower prices.
Someone on CNBC was saying that it might be a trick played by Bessent to scare of short sellers of US debt.
In my view US had a great thing going on with trade deficit which forced people to buy US debt to eventually get rid of their USDs. But now US is trying to reduce the deficit , China isn’t that keen to buy US debt (as they focus more on gold) , Japan is having their own issues, AI debt is competing against US govt debt too. So it wouldn’t be easy to sell 30 year US bonds at lower rates.
On top most likely countries who hold US bonds are trying to sell them to pay for higher costs of energy and crude.
2026 is more than half way over, but here’s one version of what could pan out for the rest of the year:
You just described 2026 YTD as a model for the rest of the year. Good one 
well Warsh hasn’t made a u-turn yet
He hasn’t had to. The Fed has resumed quantitative easing in December last year (so still under JPow).
A small fly in the US refining ointment: crude supplies tightening as Mexico directs more crude internally.
Also Canadian oil sands to go on planned maintenance and remove 300,000 barrels.
Maybe Venezuela, Canada and Middle East can pick up the slack.
I’d invested heavily in US refiners as the ones least likely to be disrupted by world events, but even the US refiners are not fully immune.
Question for the group.
If US treasury market keeps seeing higher yields - it’s obviously bad for bonds, but is it positive for equities or is it bad for everything (bonds & equities)
It’s bad for most things, including equities.
It’s worse for companies with debt to issue (higher costs) and not as bad for the debt-free ones
Discount rates up → prices lower, to varying degrees.
Maybe I’m mis-remembering, but don’t rising rates usually trigger recession stock market falls (after a time delay)?
What’s the intuition for the 20 months? Because as is it doesn’t sound like a correlation, you can probably show a lot of similar correlations between two curves when cherry picking the time period esp if you allow time shifting 
You’ll need to go back further than 2011 if you want to make a convincing argument for this relationship.
As per Ruchir Sharma from Rockefeller „all historical bubbles end with increase in interest rates „
In his view US 10Y above 5% would be the breaking point
Found the video
Here
To diagnose bubbles, Sharma uses what he calls the four O’s. He said the AI boom is flashing red on all four: overinvestment, overvaluation, over-ownership, and over-leverage.
Interest rates raises tighten credit and put the less profitable companies into trouble. In times of crisis, central banks tend to cut rates so it seems fairly normal that rates raises and then tops precede the crises.
I’m not sure what to think of this one. Higher rates on government bonds creates competition and tightens credit conditions but if it stems from a loss of credit by the US Treasury, it might also spur more attractivity for corporate bonds. AI debt fueled investments make that field pretty crowded too right now, though.
I’d say the raising rates situation is bad for stocks as well as bonds but I wouldn’t bet the house on any directional move. There are other effects at play and, for example, the AI craze or fall from grace can move stocks in different directions with pretty wide magnitude.
Edit: also, some/many(?) companies have US Treasuries on their book so higher yields, meaning a loss of value for already issued bonds, would also be bad for them for that reason.
