There’s still a lot of margin before aviation and non-energy usage becomes the primary issue though.
Slightly over 20% of oil products is used by those, the rest can decently be electrified.
On the methane side, 40% is used by household (and large part of the remaining usage is for electricity production).
I didn’t need to check the news today to see what had happened in Iran. My IBKR portfolio already told me:
I’m curious to see how this evolves over the next 2 weeks!
My first reaction (based on nothing but vibez) is that it’s probably a good selling opportunity. Don’t really trust Trump to not screw this up as soon as tomorrow, and even if a ceasefire holds then there will still be a lot of disruption from the damaged oil and gas facilities in the Gulf.
how about today? Israel is still attacking Lebanon and Iran is blocking the strait again.
And anti air defense shooting down dromes in Teheran just now. Iran state media accusing Israel/USA violating the ceasefire.
The White House pushed the idea of a temporary ceasefire with Iran even as Donald Trump escalated threats against the Islamic republic and claimed it was “begging” for a deal, according to people familiar with the talks
Seems like it’s mostly the US that initiated this.
https://www.ft.com/content/249b9255-c448-492b-88bf-098d97de4159?syn-25a6b1a6=1
I think at least one good thing that happened here is that US was smart enough to realise that they need to back out of a war they cannot win. Russia wasn’t fast enough and is stuck
What will be worth observing is how the rest of the world sees this episode
Yes.
@PhilMongoose I’m going to eat my crow and admit no ground invasion has occurred during the Easter weekend and the situation is more taco-y than full scale war.
Washington —
Consumer sentiment plummeted to its lowest level on record due to frustration with price spikes from the US-Israeli war with Iran.
The University of Michigan’s latest consumer survey released Friday showed that sentiment declined 11% early this month to a reading of 47.6, lower than anything seen in the post World War II era, including during the Great Recession, the pandemic downturn and the historic inflation surge afterward.
From history that doesn’t portend well. That said, perhaps a recession can be avoided through relentless ‚doom-spending‘…
As an aside, I’ve been motivated by the Trump $1.5T military budget proposal to take a look at the US debt clock. I expected the Big Beautiful Bill to have taken the problem of the debt ceiling out of the picture for the whole Trump term. Apparently, it’ll be back again (though probably not front stage as so many other topics need to be discussed) by then end of Q1 next year and possibly as early as the end of this year…
Finally Hungary is turning a page.
Let’s start the Heal (and the purge!)! 
Nearly 80% turned out to vote, the results are ultra clear cut, and Orban had the unexpected (?) grace to concede defeat well before most voted were counted and accounted for, he won some points in my eyes for showing respect to democracy. I feel Erdogan and Netanyahu would do the same. No “stop the steal” nonsense.
I read some (non-Hungarians) writing “yeah great, one far right guy out, another far right guy in”, but my political compass is simple: I see who’s happy and who’s not, until I find someone whose politics I understand. Used this with Trump, Brexit, Putin, Netanyahu and it hasn’t failed me yet.
I was also impressed. Orban might have been building autocracy but he still respected the democratic results graciously
I’m pleasantly surprised too.
Oh. And it’s TACO Tuesday: Oil prices fall as supply concerns ease on hopes for US-Iran talks
You’re very likely much better informed than me on this, but as an observer of the media stream it seems that there are parallel narratives of “it can be fixed fast” and “the damage is already done”, thinking about downstream delays, and infrastructure damage which will, apparently, need years to be brought back up to scratch. What’s your opinion?
It depends on what you talk about. Clearly some things will take time. Qatar have already indicated 3-5 years to repair the damaged LNG facilities.
In other news:
US stocks have recouped all of their losses during the first weeks of the war in the Middle East, extending a recent rally.
Yeah, that V recovery sort of crept up on us (or maybe just me) among the mayhem of repeated TACOs and twitter “diplomacy”. Maybe it feels this way because I haven’t been watching closely, but my weathervane (reddit) is full of “hey when did we get to ATH again, wasn’t the world going to shit tomorrow?”.
