Chronicles of 2026 - the next chapter

Finally Hungary is turning a page.

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Let’s start the Heal (and the purge!)! :heart::white_heart::green_heart:

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Nearly 80% turned out to vote, the results are ultra clear cut, and Orban had the unexpected (?) grace to concede defeat well before most voted were counted and accounted for, he won some points in my eyes for showing respect to democracy. I feel Erdogan and Netanyahu would do the same. No “stop the steal” nonsense.

I read some (non-Hungarians) writing “yeah great, one far right guy out, another far right guy in”, but my political compass is simple: I see who’s happy and who’s not, until I find someone whose politics I understand. Used this with Trump, Brexit, Putin, Netanyahu and it hasn’t failed me yet.

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I was also impressed. Orban might have been building autocracy but he still respected the democratic results graciously

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I’m pleasantly surprised too.

Oh. And it’s TACO Tuesday: Oil prices fall as supply concerns ease on hopes for US-Iran talks

You’re very likely much better informed than me on this, but as an observer of the media stream it seems that there are parallel narratives of “it can be fixed fast” and “the damage is already done”, thinking about downstream delays, and infrastructure damage which will, apparently, need years to be brought back up to scratch. What’s your opinion?

It depends on what you talk about. Clearly some things will take time. Qatar have already indicated 3-5 years to repair the damaged LNG facilities.

In other news:

US stocks have recouped all of their losses during the first weeks of the war in the Middle East, extending a recent rally.

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AAII as a contrary indicator proved right again:

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Yeah, that V recovery sort of crept up on us (or maybe just me) among the mayhem of repeated TACOs and twitter “diplomacy”. Maybe it feels this way because I haven’t been watching closely, but my weathervane (reddit) is full of “hey when did we get to ATH again, wasn’t the world going to shit tomorrow?”.

It‘s kinda weird, Nasdaq is higher than before the war. And the Hormuz situation hasn‘t resolved at all, while a ton of oil & gas infrastructure is destroyed, that needs years of repair. Like Qatar has 20% of its LNG facilities destroyed that needs 3-5 years of repair. US Inflation expectation has somehow collapsed from 5%+ to now about 3%. While oil prices have not come down at all.

Seems like the market is a little over-ethusiastic.

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Nasdaq is riding AI wave, less energy concerns.

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Isn’t the AI wave dependent on semiconductors that require helium that is constrained by the closure of the strait of Hormuz?

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And also power.

indeed, remarkable price recover in the last days given the clearly unresolved situation. I wonder what indicators are considered to drive this buying spree..

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An interesting interview with the CEO jan van eck of the Van Eck Investment firm.

He paints a rather positive outlook and gives interesting insights how they are using AI (Claude) internally and already spending already almost 1mio p.a. (500 FTEs- 2k (!) per employee) and how he as a CEO is more than happy to spend that kind of money.
Shows how AI seems to be moving into real corporate productivity which starts to rationalize the high valuations of AI companies and investments.
AI seems to become a real driver for productivity and growth (beyond the bubble ?)

I wouldn’t give much about anything this guy has to say honestly. He is a major Trump supporter and anything he says is majorly MAGA-biased.

Wow, I didnt realize the trump connections
 important caveat..
But if the numbers are in the ball park it still shows an interessting direction IMO

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That’s easy, we also have rubbish developers wasting 1000s of USD to create slop in the repos.

Spending money != Producing value

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While I agree that the potential for creating slop and messing up existing code bases is great - so is the potential if used in the right way at the right places. Not only in coding but also directly in business tasks.

I use the tools daily and I’m fascinated how far coding agent like claude code have come in just over a year. While still far from perfekt using the right spec driven harness and workflows one can build quite solid software way beyond mere vibe coding.

I feel like not to embrace the new AI tools and learning how to use them effectively now, can be become way more costly than making calculated mistakes now - for companies and employees alike.

But i guess thats an entirely new topic/discussion :slight_smile:

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It seems we have found modern days pets.com.

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