I came across the following just a couple of days ago (on Twitter, the most unbiased and most reliable news outlet out there in this galaxy):
During WWI, Denmark sold the Danish West Indies (U.S. Virgin Islands) to the United States. In exchange, the U.S. agreed not to contest Denmarkâs claim over all of Greenland.
In 1931, Norway tried to claim parts of Eastern Greenland. The case went to the Permanent Court of International Justice in 1933, which ruled in favor of Denmark , giving them full sovereignty over the entire island.
I bet Donaldâs looking at the size of the U.S. Virgin Islands vs Greenland and with his hand size complex believes the deal was unfair.
On the icy and slipperly slope of non-desired political discussions on this forum, I always like to lead by example and walk the talk, hence this post.
Meanwhile, Trump has almost literally said that not owning a piece of land but having to lease it gives him anxiety, with the actual quote being:
âBecause thatâs what I feel is psychologically needed for success,â Trump said. âI think that ownership gives you a thing that you canât do, whether youâre talking about a lease or a treaty. Ownership gives you things and elements that you canât get from just signing a document.â
The EU, with hopefully support from the UK, is also considering what retaliatory options they have if the US invade Greenland. Economic actions against US companies, the selling of US treasuries and others have been discussed. The new free trade treaty ready to be signed with Mercosur (that could still be killed by the EU Parliament but what Iâve read about it is that itâs more likely to pass than not) should increase their trade possibilities and increase their independance with regards to the US and China.
All in all, I think Europe is less weak than we like to pretend in this case and is tackling its situation firmly and appropriately, while Trump is basically doing whatever he can to actively destroy the US economic and financial situation (tariffs, attacks against Powell, basically alienating the whole rest of the world,âŠ).
I have no idea what consequences that will have on financial assets.
People, whatâs that nervous attitude? What would Bogle say? Buffett? Munger? Lynch?
Whatever happened to âIgnore the noiseâ, âStay the courseâ, âTime in the market beats timing the marketâ, âDividends are irrelevantâ? Ok, ignore that last bit, itâs a truncated sentence from some hypothesis that has no bearing on the real world
Be realistic and logical please. First of all nukes donât fly anywhere near as easily as that. Second the US has bases in Greenland, third what exactly would they nuke there?
EU will offer lot of concessions like profiting from Greenland mineral wealth to US. And most likely US will sell it as a win internally. In the end itâs all about rare earth minerals anyways. If you donât have something , grab it if you have force. This is the new world order.
EU will sell this as a win and rationalise coercion in the name of North Atlantic unity. And as we have seen so far, this non confrontational style will bolster more demands few months down the line. Having said that EU is not in position to confront US like China or India. So this is best we can hope for
Interesting read. Participants below expressing their views on AI.
Michael Burry is a former hedge fund manager and writer who publishes investment analysis and market commentary on his Substack, Cassandra Unchained. He is best known for predicting the subprime mortgage crisis, as depicted in The Big Short, and has more recently voiced skepticism about AI-driven market exuberance.
Jack Clark is the co-founder and head of policy at Anthropic, where he works on AI safety, governance, and the societal implications of frontier models. He also writes Import AI, a long-running newsletter analyzing advances in artificial intelligence, state power, and technological risk.
Dwarkesh Patel is the founder and host of the Dwarkesh Podcast, where he interviews leading thinkers on AI, economics, and scientific progress. He also publishes essays and interviews on his Substack, focusing on long-term technological trajectories, AI alignment, and civilizational risk.
Patrick McKenzie is a writer and software entrepreneur best known for his newsletter Bits About Money, where he explains finance, markets, and institutions. He also hosts the Complex Systems podcast and has previously worked in tech and payments, including at Stripe.
Itâs about the stock market, so Iâd say both donât go together
The nuking is ofc dumb, but I said it just to give a feeling about what is being said and thatâs hard to stay calm sometimes.
They are not really playing 4d chess. (btw Scott Adams died yesterday)
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